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14-06-2021, 07:04 PM
#4301
I had to give myself a bit of a talking too about this one today. Getting frustrated about its lackluster share price performance against such compelling metrics.
Talk went something like this. Don't be a greedy impatient old mutt. You didn't buy these for quick share price gains in the short term. Medium term these are going to grow earnings very nicely and you'll make heaps, and enjoy fantastic dividends along the way...just because you think they're really cheap it might take some time for the market to embrace them.... have a decent amount of patience you stupid old greedy dog.
Felt better after telling myself off. Do I need help or do others do this sort of "self talk" thing too lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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14-06-2021, 07:07 PM
#4302
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14-06-2021, 07:15 PM
#4303
Beagle ...just remind yourself that late last year you packed a big sad and sold all your WHS in disgust (?) .....and after outlining why percy said something like why bother (with them)
The upgrades seduced you back .....so stay with her this time ....shes a fine tuned chick firing on all cylinders now ( or something like that)
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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14-06-2021, 07:25 PM
#4304
Good point Winner.....I need to dig in properly for the long haul and take a really "dogged" approach this time especially seeing as this time I have eight times as many as last year !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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15-06-2021, 05:27 AM
#4305
reason share price is stalled is because of all the people selling there placement shares for there nickel and dimes. be patient for the overhang to work thru and look forward to the nzx50 inclusion
one step ahead of the herd
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15-06-2021, 08:05 AM
#4306
Ok...after seeing all stars so bullish on WHS ...I am getting in from today ...hopefully it will bring luck to all holders ...lol
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15-06-2021, 09:03 AM
#4307
Originally Posted by bull....
reason share price is stalled is because of all the people selling there placement shares for there nickel and dimes. be patient for the overhang to work thru and look forward to the nzx50 inclusion
I agree 100%. Plenty of people arbitraging the placement and milking a 10 cent profit (or thereabouts) on the placement price. The money they brought to the placement wasn't genuine new capital, just in for the trade but what it does do is present a real opportunity for value investors bringing new money to the table now.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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16-06-2021, 09:58 AM
#4308
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Sussed it all out yet Mudfish
Below is summary over last few years
Just worry about the numbers highlighted in yellow ... and the trend
Amazing that the stuff that doesn't matter (adjustments) add up $180m over the years.
Hey Winner, finally managed to put some time into this. Great little chart. I did some calculations to work out PEs for NPAT figures and Adjusted NPAT figures. I also, read through reports to try and figure out the reasons for each year's adjustment. I found PEs to have an absolutely huge range when considering adjusted, not adjusted or between years. No consistency whatsoever. I also found, as I think you have pointed out, the one off reasons for the adjustments are large and unpredictable. So.... to try and answer the important question of what are these shares likely to be worth end of July, I've used the belief that WHS will achieve their 160m+ adjusted figure forecast in last update (see no reason to doubt this as we have had no Covid impacts of late and NZ seems stable presently). I have pulled a figure of 50m one off costs out of my rear end (no idea what for, but have used higher end figure, super rough I know). This gives 110m NPAT and on a, plucked, PE of 12, share price of $3.80. This SP just happens to be very close to Market Screener's ave price of $3.83. Probably just a fluke here. Anyway, though I've struggled with finding predicable figures to use, the SP price does stand out as a buy to me. Just one wee question for you, on your chart for H1 2021, you have included a 56m adjustment figure. How did you get that? Cheers for your help. Much appreciated.
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16-06-2021, 11:23 AM
#4309
Mudfish ....see Slide 18
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...678/343023.pdf
As I said before just concentrate on the Adjusted Numbers ....the market ignores all that other stuff
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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16-06-2021, 11:53 AM
#4310
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Ahhh, my bad, was right in front of me. Adjusted Numbers certainly look very good with regards to growth but I can see value in looking at straight NPAT too. Either way, it's hard not to see a SP of 3.60 - 3.90 IMO. Cheers for your help. I'm a happy holder.
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