WHS - Warehouse Group

[BIRMANBOY]

Are we talking the same company? the dividends have been good for years!!! See below. Whats disappointing about those? Also its a long bow that would extrapolate that this is some sort of macro of the NZ economy. WHS has way exceeded many others. Its good for WHS but generally retail is a not a sector to be invested in as a "everyone a winner" scenario. As a general indicator of where NZ is going unfortunately its a double edged sword.... WHS is appealing to the budget minded shopper. So WHS sales up...whoops NZ disposable income has dropped.

Final 2012	6.5	2.79	14 November 2012
	Interim 2012	13.5	5.79	19 April 2012
	Final 2011	6.5	2.79	16 November 2011
	Interim 2011	15.5	6.64	20 April 2011
	Final 2010 Special	5.0	2.14	17 November 2010
	Final 2010	8.5	3.64	17 November 2010
	Interim 2010	17.0	8.37	30 March 2010
	Final 2009 Special	10.0	4.93	18 November 2009
	Final 2009	5.5	2.71	18 November 2009
	Interim 2009	15.5	7.6	21 April 2009
	Final 2008	5.5	2.71	19 November 2008
	Interim 2008	15.5	7.6	16 April 2008
	Final 2007 Special	35.0	17.2	28 September 2007
	Final 2007	5.5	2.71	28 September 2007
	Interim 2007	12.0	5.91	26 April 2007
	Final 2006	5.5	2.71	27 November 2006
	Interim 2006	10.50	5.17	24 April 2006
	Final 2005	4.00	1.97	21 November 2005
	Interim 2005	10.50	5.17	26 April 2005
	Final 2004	4.00	1.97	22 November 2004
	Interim 2004	10.50	5.17	26 April 2004
	Final 2003	4.00	1.97	24 November 2003
	Interim 2003	10.50	5.17	22 April 2003
	Final 2002	4.00	1.97	25 November 2002
	Interim 2002	9.50	4.68	22 April 2002
	Final 2001	4.00	1.97	26 November 2001
	Interim 2001	8.50	4.19	23 April 2001
	Final 2000	4.00	1.97	27 November 2000
	Interim 2000	17.0	8.37	24 March 2000
	Interim 2000 Special	18.0	8.87	24 March 2000
	Final 1999	6.00	2.96	26 November 1999
	Final 1999 Special	6.00	2.96	26 November 1999
	Interim 1999	13.0	6.40	16 April 1999
	Interim 1999 Special	18.0	8.87	16 April 1999
	Final 1998	7.50	3.69	30 November 1998
	Interim 1998	6.50	3.20	01 May 1998
	Final 1997	4.00	1.97	28 November 1997
	Interim 1997	6.00	2.96	02 May 1997

I think from a macro perspective on the NZ economy this result is very good for NZ. Ive been invested in WHS for while and for the most part it's been pretty disappointing BUT things are very much on the improve, which is great for the WHS investment, but to see the retail sector in NZ start to show this kind of improvement I think bodes very well for the Economy too, and that for me is of much more importance!!

[macduffy]

I read turmeric's comment in the sense of WHS' recently improving results auguring well for the retail trade and for the NZ economy in general. Briscoe's result would tend to bear this out, although that company has been a top performer in both good and difficult conditions.

[percy]

I read turmeric's comment in the sense of WHS' recently improving results auguring well for the retail trade and for the NZ economy in general. Briscoe's result would tend to bear this out, although that company has been a top performer in both good and difficult conditions.

Same store growth is poor.Real growth is coming from on line sales.
Briscoes are finding the same.
Postie Plus would appear to have lost market share to WHS.

[BIRMANBOY]

I might agree if there was any sustained evidence stretching over a number of years...but all the buzz I hear and see about retailing is its very, very difficult and has been for several years. Most of my customers are retailing and again very few are doing anything other than making ends meet. Major problem facing retailers generally is rising rents and expenses and static sales especially in main st and mall locations. Briscoes Group has done well but my guess is that its on the back of Rebel Sports and not Briscoes or Living and giving or whatever they are called. Every time I have been into Briscoes its a deserted cavern. Successfull retailing in my opinion will be those that can control their rents by owning and lease-backs and incorporating online sales. Retail as a sector for investing needs very carefull selection.

I read turmeric's comment in the sense of WHS' recently improving results auguring well for the retail trade and for the NZ economy in general. Briscoe's result would tend to bear this out, although that company has been a top performer in both good and difficult conditions.

[BIRMANBOY]

There are too many variables too compare re your GFC point. Firstly they were not getting any online sales at that point. Secondly if WHS sales did fall how do you know disposable income didnt go up? Maybe it went onto pay mortgages, holidays, repay loans etc. etc. Its hard to measure...is there any measure? My comments were based on calculated but unprovable common sense. That is ...any given day people will buy x number of shoes, hammers etc. If they have less money in their pocket they will buy the cheaper (WHS) option. If they have more available they will buy a better quality "brand name" thereby spending more.

Hi BIRMANBOY and macduffy,
Yeah, firstly I was talking about the SP movement since I invested being disappointing, not the dividends, for sure the dividends have been great! Secondly, I dont have the numbers so I will happily be put in place here, but I'm not sure I buy into your argument about WHS sales up = NZ disposable income down. I recall WHS sales falling quite a lot during the GFC so the reciprocal of your argument would suggest NZ disposable income must have gone up, which wasn't the case. Maybe I am misinterpreting what you are saying though?
And yes my comment was intended macduffy says "recently improving results auguring well for the retail trade and for the NZ economy in general."
Hope that all makes sense I am in a hurry so havent had time to read this and think this over too carefully.

[macduffy]

Briscoes Group has done well but my guess is that its on the back of Rebel Sports and not Briscoes or Living and giving or whatever they are called. Every time I have been into Briscoes its a deserted cavern.

Not so in the latest year. Briscoes and L&G stores EBIT rose 12%, Rebel Sport 13%, ie spread across the whole group.

Interesting too that while their online business is thriving, they are planning a 30% increase to floor space of the main Wellington store.

Apologies

Meant for the BGR thread

[kiwitrev]

Food for thought. Morninstar now have a sell on WHS and valuation of $3! Don't know how their highly qualified and paid analysts come to that conclusion. Any views?

[BIRMANBOY]

Their brokerage figures for the month are a bit low?

Food for thought. Morninstar now have a sell on WHS and valuation of $3! Don't know how their highly qualified and paid analysts come to that conclusion. Any views?

[emearg]

Every time I have been into Briscoes its a deserted cavern.

Struth!!???? We both live in Wellington and I would state the opposite! They are always busy when I visit. That said I usually go when they are having a sale...which should mean they are always busy!

[BIRMANBOY]

HAh...two realities...both correct but totally diverging..reminds me of that old Sci Fi show "Twilight Zone". Maybe going in at different time portals? The time between sales is getting shorter and shorter and the amount off is always up to 30%. I never go for sales so thats probably why its deserted

Struth!!???? We both live in Wellington and I would state the opposite! They are always busy when I visit. That said I usually go when they are having a sale...which should mean they are always busy!