WHS - Warehouse Group

[macduffy]

This behemoth has to turn around some time doesn't it?

One would think so, winner. It's not as though other players are taking their particular market segment from them, although the likes of Briscoes and K Mart compete in some areas. Or am I wrong in thinking this?

[BlackPeter]

Good to see share price hanging in there about the $3 mark

How's this year going performance wise for WHS Group

After 4 years of declining EPS (ex Morningstar) hopefully F17 will be better?

Been some effort in seeing EPS down 44% in those 4 years - when core retail sales in NZ have been booming (up 18% in same period)

This behemoth has to turn around some time doesn't it?

Well, if the data come from Morningstar than they must be right - right?

Everybody not trusting Morning Star might look at the company records - and they show a somewhat different pattern:

EPS 2010 20 cts
EPS 2011 25 cts
EPS 2012 29 cts
EPS 2013 47 cts (including a one off property sale ...)
EPS 2014 22 cts (including smaller one offs)
EPS 2015 15 cts
EPS 2016 23 cts

average EPS over this period: 26 cts;

my expectation for FY2017 (based on the September announcement): 25 cts - i.e. basically back to a medium result; actually - might be better with Dick Smiths demise (good for Noel Leeming) and a generally promising Christmas sale;

I guess this shows nicely a quite cyclical stock past its last cyclical low in 2015;

In my view no need for turning around (at this stage). Just holding (and from time to time reviewing) the course should do quite fine.

What they should look at are in my view the "financial division" - which doesn't seem to get off the ground ... and Warehouse Stationary. Though they do make a bit of money - every time I get into one of the blue sheds I see more staff than customers (and quite empty corridors). There must be a more efficient way to make money from selling stationary ....

[winner69]

Yep, numbers all over the place

Even F16 WHS reported $78m npat butbtouted a $64m adjusted npat ( in line with guidance). Thats 18 cents eps. There were $14m of non operating earnings.

Might need to it the long way and do my own calcs based on adjusted npat and see what it looks like.

Forecast eps seems to be 20 cents - so 18 might be a realistic figure

What earnings record over many years is pretty flat (if not down) isn't it (in spite of booming retail sales)

[BlackPeter]

Yep, numbers all over the place

Even F16 WHS reported $78m npat butbtouted a $64m adjusted npat ( in line with guidance). Thats 18 cents eps. There were $14m of non operating earnings.

Might need to it the long way and do my own calcs based on adjusted npat and see what it looks like.

Forecast eps seems to be 20 cents - so 18 might be a realistic figure

What earnings record over many years is pretty flat (if not down) isn't it (in spite of booming retail sales)

Well, yes - their last CEO didn't lead them into the best of shapes, but the new guy must be now already a year or so at the helm - isn't he?

As indicated - I am a bit more optimistic for this year (they said it will be more than last ... but hey, maybe they referred to the underlying earnings, who knows?), but I guess time will tell - and obviously we still need to see whether the earthquakes did stop the Christmas rush (apparently retail sales in November had a wee dip - across the industry).

[winner69]

My morbid fascination with WHS continues, goes back to last century

Love to be a shareholder again .....but history says WHS is generally not a good medium/long term investment.

The only time one would have made any reasonable returns (from a medium/long term perspective is buying when the share price is really cheap - ie downgraded to really low multiples. However when this happens the market generally has also been rerated down and most things are a good buy .... and WHS subsequent returns are generally less than overall market returns anyway.

Compounding all this that over a long time the WHS share price has followed it's earnings trend downwards

Anyway for what's it worth below is a table of annual total shareholder returns (including all divies) over the last 9 years (July 31 share prices). The returns shown are cumulative annual returns from each July starting point. Not many green cells eh (greater than a miserable 5% pa return) - and they generally only come about from low entry prices in the first instance,

Definitely hasn't been a stock to hold long term .... only good for short /medium term trades but as said above generally under performs the market anyway in these instances

[Jim]

I am wondering when is WHS sending out the special shareholders purchase letter out. I am waiting for it so I can make some large purchase if they still continue doing it and not cancel them.

[kiwico]

I am wondering when is WHS sending out the special shareholders purchase letter out. I am waiting for it so I can make some large purchase if they still continue doing it and not cancel them.

I think this was 12.5% discount last year but that doesn't compare with the repeat of the 20% discount this Thursday for Warehouse Money credit card holders. Perhaps you'll be able to combine the two?

[kiwico]

The WHS special shareholders purchase letter is now out with 12.5% shareholder discount on next Monday and Tuesday (19th and 20th). Interestingly this coincides with yet another 20% discount day for Warehouse Money credit card holders, only five days since the last one.

So anyone fancy a 24% discount on an iPad? [as iPads and certain other things have only a 5% shareholder discount, but a 20% WM credit card holder discount was available on them last Thursday] Any with free shipping for WM credit card holders for anything over $50 why even to the store?

Apple iPad mini 2 Wi-Fi 32GB Grey

Details

http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/appl.../R2147895.html $449.00

[kiwico]

And for the stingy of us there's the arbitrage play - why not buy things on Tuesday with a combined 30% (80% of 87.5%) and return anything bought in the 12 months that's still in a sellable condition (to met the 12 month return conditions of WHS.

I've seen the WHS provide a refund on a used and coffee stained drink container before so the sky's the limit.....

[winner69]

And for the stingy of us there's the arbitrage play - why not buy things on Tuesday with a combined 30% (80% of 87.5%) and return anything bought in the 12 months that's still in a sellable condition (to met the 12 month return conditions of WHS.

I've seen the WHS provide a refund on a used and coffee stained drink container before so the sky's the limit.....

The Red Sheds were good when they stocked more sports equipment than they do now

Non golfers would buy a set of the clubs for the annual work golf tournament and return them the next day for the refund (we did give them a bit of a clean)

Cool eh