WHS - Warehouse Group

[macduffy]

On an adjusted npat basis that WHS uses if full year is down 15% then eps will be 16 cents

Hoe they havea few decent property sales coming up to fund that dividend

At least the write down of the financial services part will be 'non cash'

Or at least "no more cash". It's already been spent/lost!

[Biscuit]

CAGR (2009 - 2016) 7.5% p.a.; Forward CAGR (based on analyst consensus) 7.3%;

I hear what you are saying (just looking at the red sheds), but the numbers for the warehouse empire definitely show growth ...

Interesting. Not sure it is interesting enough to me to look at that in depth. Take out the 2014 capital raise and there has only been one year in that period with any significant increase in shareholder equity (2013). Not sure what happened that year (something to do with buying Noel Leemings?). Since 2013 equity has decreased.

[winner69]

CAGR (2009 - 2016) 7.5% p.a.; Forward CAGR (based on analyst consensus) 7.3%;

I hear what you are saying (just looking at the red sheds), but the numbers for the warehouse empire definitely show growth ...

But a fair chunk of thst growth has come from Noel Leeming and Torpedo7
More acquisitions on horizon to maintain that growth?

[BlackPeter]

But a fair chunk of thst growth has come from Noel Leeming and Torpedo7
More acquisitions on horizon to maintain that growth?

Good point - merger with Farmers? Just kidding, though it might not be in the realm of impossibility given the Normans interest ...

[Bobdn]

WHS does a great job online. Shotgun supplements for example have great deals and provide excellent service.

Same story with their booze site: 1 day wine central. I'd be super sweaty and nervous about WHS if it wasn't for it's growing online business.

I'm going to hang onto my shares and see what happens.

[Beagle]

12 month price targets now:-
Craigs $2.75
Forbar $2.65
Analysts seem unimpressed.

WHS management said to be pleased with the apparel side of their business.

[couta1]

12 month price targets now:-
Craigs $2.75
Forbar $2.65
Analysts seem unimpressed.

WHS management said to be pleased with the apparel side of their business.

Pretty much business as usual then, 12 month low was $2.59 so targets above that.(Of course I take most analysts targets with a pinch of salt)

[Stranger_Danger]

One of the key issues faced by all credit providers is the availability of the no asset procedure for unsecured debts up to $47,000. A simple one-off twelve month process that is considerably less odious than a full three year bankruptcy. I would think the Warehouse, (chasing their demographic), will find that they experience more than their fair share of losses through this procedure.
https://www.insolvency.govt.nz/perso...et-procedures/

I'm surprised this issue isn't discussed more by investors.
I personally know of half a dozen people in the 20-30 demographic who, having racked up $10k in debt buying rubbish, learned about the NAP procedure from friends, set out intentionally to accrue another 36k worth of debt, making sure they had friends garages to store their junk in, or what they hadn't resold for cash. They then filed for a NAP with not a care in the world, no drama from their friends and no damage to their job prospects.

This will only get more common in the years ahead - the cases I mention all occurred during good times with falling interest rates.

[Beagle]

I think the theory behind the NAP is good but as you say the problem behind parking an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff is that some people will jump just because its there and milk some enjoyment from the process.
I am seeing this with young people in the tax area too. Some have a very lax attitude to paying tax because they know the department have no option but to tread leniently with them...or NAP.
New credit providers need to be sure they're modelling up a pretty good percentage of people who will exploit unsecured debt. I wonder if this is one of the reasons WHS is struggling with its new financial division ?

[Ogg]

This might be slightly off topic, but I was in the market for a kayak the other day.

At The Warehouse a kayak was on special as a daily deal for $349.

http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/orca...ak&start=1kaya

Then my friend sent me a link from a website called "Container Door". It's basically a site where everyone joins together to fill a container so the shipping cost is cheap. The website acts as a middleman and import agent.

Their price for a 2.7m Kayak was $299.

https://www.containerdoor.com/nz/pro...ingle-kayak-15

The retail industry is so competitive, so I understand why so many companies are being squeezed. Especially considering the amount of small "one man band" websites competing for market share.

What's even more interesting, is that I decided to try and find the Chinese factory where they were all made. After a while searching I got in contact with one of them and they said their price was as low as $100 USD each if you ordered a 100 units or more, lol, plenty of margin there for any retailer.

All of my family now exclusively shop online. What The Warehouse needs to do is get rid of all the small non performing stores and build a large online distribution center.