The happy ending:
Sid returns from the bush 5 years later and his stock broker gives him the news the shares are worth $10. He enthuses about the excellent mangament decisions the WHS took over the past 5 years. It cut its losses in Australia in 2005 to concentrate on NZ operations, first by better managing margins and second by following Walmarts lead and entering into the hypermarket format. Its superior stock control systems and smart marketing allowed it to take considerble market share from the supermaket chains. Margins aren't high but they are stable and the WHS more than earns its cost of capital. Sid's pretty chuffed, he sells his shares to move into a comfortable kauri villa in Freeman's Bay.
The sad ending:
Sid returns and the shares are worth $2.50. The broker consoles him by saying that its still 50% more than what they were two years ago when the WHS finally sold off their loss making Australian operations and marginal New Zealand red sheds to focus on stores earning a superior return on equity. The broker tells him Foresooth Barred research suggests it will be worth $4.00 on the 2011 earnings outlook. Sid sighs and goes back to the bush for another 5 years.
Until I see management making the tough decisions I lean to the sad ending...
Tough weekend for Keith and Ian tossing around what they should be telling shareholders at the AGM this week.
Could be tough meeting seeing shareholders have seen their worth diminish by $720,000,000 since the last meeting
Keith agreed to do the nice warm fuzzy stuff saying that last year wasn't the best but things were on track and this year will probably be OK
Keith won't be able to give any guidance for the full year as Xmas sales have such a bearing on the result ... but trust me
Keith told Ian that he is the new leader so he can do the visionary thing ... like I have been in charge for a few months ... like what i see ... and once I change a few things ... build some new stores ... in a few years we will have a great company again
Anybody going to the AGM?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Ian saying he will reduce stock by 30% makes the $100M a year capital needs less daunting ... and WHS won't have to borrow to pay the dividend this year
Then again maybe Progressive is on the radar ... if you can't beat them buy them
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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