WHS - Warehouse Group

[peat]

My charting programme (which automatically detects shapes and patterns) suggest WHS is bullish by virtue of the channel in purple with target at purple square.
Attachment 9398

Whereas my eyeballing tends to prefer the descending triangle scenario (bearish) as shown here:

WHS11022017b.JPG

If that is correct woe betide the break of $2 !!


Team analysis back at the old office considered there was good residual value for aggregations - in other words takeovers would support price.

This thread's FA view and my TA view would appear to agree

Disclaimer: No position

[Beagle]

Warehouse Group do sell about $3 billion of stuff a year and even these days make a profit $60m odd so not all that hopeless.

I ran the ruler over it on a FA basis last year and arrived at $1.50 - $1.60 with the rather large caveat that one would have to believe that management could stop the tide going out.

[winner69]

Wonder what Foodstuffs are thinking about all the current carry ons ... hard sitting on a unrealised loss

And James Pascoe / Normans have been pretty quiet of late

Everybody froaen by the headlights it seems .....hopign Nick pulls it off

Nick left Sears in time eh

[winner69]

A billion bucks would buy them

Can Mr Tindall afford to take it private

Suppose it might have some strategic value for somebody and even PE could be interested in buying and asset stripping and making heaps before selling an iconic business back to the keen NZ public

[winner69]

They should do shareholders a favour and float off Noel Leeming as a separate entity and return the capital.

Bloody hell ....another Dick Smiths on the exchange

[MauroNZ]

This one has been an interesting learning as I've bought it in 2013 following Craigs IP when I was after a good dividend one. In four years went down about 80%. Still holding but unsure what path to follow. Worth it keep holding it? Worth better have 20% at least in cash?.

[Beagle]

I would concede they're playing their cards, (a systemically poor hand ?) as well as they can with this new everyday bargain thing. T.V. advertisements about everyday value are good quality, reasonably catchy and aimed squarely at the target demographic. K Mart with their better pricing and slightly more upmarket shopping experience must be a real thorn in WHS's side though and Briscoes aren't ever going to go away as a competitor either....then there's all the trend towards online buying.

One would suppose that they justify the most recent decline in sales stat's by saying they're repositioning the brand down into everyday value pricing, (quite why they ever abandoned that strategy in the first place I'll never know), and now they're justifying a significant profit decline under the auspices of further investment in brand development, (this seems like a real value creation strategy...for management), but whether shareholders ever see any benefit from it is quite another matter.

Maybe Nick can turn this slow motion train wreck into a super super slow motion train wreck, who knows... but its hard to see how they ever get traction into turning this around and growing profit again.

MauroNZ - Welcome to the forum. As you can see by today's posts I believe the long term prognosis is poor. On the other hand there are a couple of retailers that I believe are doing an outstanding job and their long term future looks sound. HLG, (I hold) would be my pick in this sector. Briscoes is also worth considering.
Briscoes has a less defendable position against the likes of Amazon as its easy to order almost anything Briscoes sells online. On the other hand HLG occupies a nice niche in the middle of the rag trade and I believe the vast majority of people prefer to visit a store before they purchase for my rule of the four F's.
They want to check in person the fit, the feel, the fashion and the fabric. Microwave ovens by way of example like Briscoes sell don't really need that sort of checking do they ? I therefore feel HLG has a sound future and a good defensible position in the retail market.

[Baa_Baa]

This one has been an interesting learning as I've bought it in 2013 following Craigs IP when I was after a good dividend one. In four years went down about 80%. Still holding but unsure what path to follow. Worth it keep holding it? Worth better have 20% at least in cash?.

That's a tough one, banking 80% capital losses or holding for the dividend and possibly more capital losses. How's the net position looking? I'd be asking your Craigs advisor why they kept you in a sustained capital losses share, and whether they ever admit errors of judgement and get their clients out before it's a basket case? Or do they think WHS is a recovery story? Then ask yourself about the rest of their advice.

[JeremyALD]

This one has been an interesting learning as I've bought it in 2013 following Craigs IP when I was after a good dividend one. In four years went down about 80%. Still holding but unsure what path to follow. Worth it keep holding it? Worth better have 20% at least in cash?.

I agree with Beagle. WHS is never going to be a growth company - there's so much transformation required and intense competition I just can't see it happening. They have a lot on their plate. Now that's not to say I don't see them paying sound dividends and lasting around, but the chances of the share price going up to anywhere near where it used to be in my opinion is very low.

Briscoes has an excellent track record (better than Hallensteins and definately WHS), however their growth seems to be slowing, especially with the housing market lagging. Personally I don't see Amazon as a big threat to them in the short term and at a PE of 12ish that would be the safest retail bet imo.

Hallensteins is a little more risky at the current SP but has a very strong record of being a brilliant dividend payer. They are performing extremely well at present and seem to have good growth opportunities in Australia. Currently its my largest capital position, but I think it's one I'll watch with a close eye over the next year.

Soooo imo you're better off in either companies than sticking around with WHS

DYOR

[winner69]

I get the impression Nick is not telling us the real story

This from yesterday - our forecast for H1 Adjusted Net Profit from continuing operations for the Group is $32m-$35m, which is 22%-28% down on the comparative continuing operations performance last year.

That implies H1 last year was about $39m odd. Actual reported number was $39.7m but this included a loss by Finance Division

In the AGM presentation Nick was proud of the slide that highlighted continuing businesses were doing quite well (like H2 was better than prior year). That slide showed continuing businesses NPAT (adjusted if course) for H1 to be $45.0m

So shouldn’t the $32m to $35m this year be compared to the touted $45m last year?

But when they reverse his bonus accrual in H2 the H2 result will be a boomer

Got me totally stuffed has Nick

Veritas love this continuing business crap as well