WHS - Warehouse Group

06-04-2005, 12:49 PM

THE KING says WHS is a great stock by the way it sticks, the saying goes for MORTINE spray is, " It keeps ON sticking ON " ..[^]

**winner69** · 27-05-2005, 01:57 PM

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Amazing that WHS price is still the same as it was 5 years ago

Imagine some poor fella called Sid who went bush for 5 years in November 1999 happy that his WHS shares were $3.80 and came out today and found they were still about $3.80.

Sid asked his sharebroker what has happened to the WHS over the last 5 years - his sharebroker told him

**** Store numbers have increased from 87 to 351
**** Sales are nearly 2 1/2 times what they were - increased from $0.9 billion to $2.2 billion
**** Net assets have more than doubled - from $170M to $357M
**** Now have 15,877 empoyees - 10.262 more than 5 years ago
**** Spent $500M on capital expenditure

So Sid replies 'Thats impressive, they must be making heaps now'

Oh no his sharebroker told Sid - their profit has only increased from $54M to $61M in those five years ... and the earnings per share has gone from 19cents to 20 cents.

Poor Sid - he's incredulous. All that investment and all those extra staff and they are only making the same as they were 5 years ago.

Who does he blame? He can't blame investor sentiment because WHS is still trading at 20X earnings - it hasn't been rerated downward. Sid says to himself that is just as well as if they had been rerated down they might have only been worth $2-$3. At least he still has his capital and he has had a few piddly dividends put in his bank account but inflation has taken care of those.

Sid asks his sharebroker 'Have the WHS really stuffed up somewhere along the way?'

Sid's sharebroker tells him 'No not really. They are investing for the future and all should be right in few years and your WHS shares should be worth $10 each in 5 years'

Sid thinks thats good and decides going bush for another 5 years might be the caper

What will Sid's sharebroker tell Sid when he comes back to civilisation in 5 years time?

Sid's brother died and Sid came out of the bush for the funeral. While at the funeral he asked his sharebroker how his WHS shares were going ... must be heading back to $10 by now he asked.

No the sharebroker told Sid .. they are actually worth about 20% less than when you came out of the bush last November

But don't fret said the sharebroker. They are changing the way they do business in NZ, going to go into groceries and think that Woolworths coming into NZ could be good for everybody. The shareprice will go back up to the old heights of old ... it just keep keep going down down down ....

And Sid has gone back to the bush happy as Larry his nest egg is going to grow ....

**Phaedrus** · 27-05-2005, 03:34 PM

I see in the Herald this morning that Smith Barney have reduced WHS from a "Hold" to a "Sell". That's a Sell at around $3.11 - the lowest this stock has been for over 6 years. These guys are good!
Remember, it's time in the market that counts, not timing the market! Baloney.
Those that think you can't time the market might like to take a look at this post from July 2002.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/...msg00272.shtml

**Gryffyn** · 27-05-2005, 04:17 PM

no impact on today's trading so far. either all the recent selling was those in the know, or remaining holders don't read.

**winner69** · 27-05-2005, 09:11 PM

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

.... Remember, it's time in the market that counts, not timing the market! Baloney.

Good point Phaedrus

Todays price is where it was back last century - looks like we need to go back to December 1998 when it was this low.

So anybody who has bought and sat on WHS since then is sitting on a capital loss ... mind you they have had some dividends in the meantime but 6-7 years worth of inflation has probably diluted those.

I then wonder how many of these investors are still sitting on their WHS invetment because they refuse to turn their paper loss into reality. Surely you can lose money on holding WHS stock can you?There has to be a turn around, doesn't there?

Isn't that how the buy and hold brigade think.

K9 · 27-05-2005, 09:49 PM

W69, you and C9 been on to it a long time

tell that to guys like Bungo66

$1.3b off the market cap and still the head remains in the sand.

150% later from $3.15 and some of these ostriches will get their money back

150% to break even! poor WHS divs have paid for what?

K9 · 27-05-2005, 09:51 PM

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

Who ran Forth for the Double..

PPG

**winner69** · 07-06-2005, 05:04 PM

Note Millers are going to writeoff $25M of stock ... probably going to have lots of sales by rhe sound of it

And close 80 stores and make a provision of $30M to cover this

And the discount variety business is deemed to be worthless and and write down the $31M they had it on the books at

Hasn't the WHS done well in stuffing this business in a big way

And of course WHS aren't affected by the actions they have taken to stuff the opposition .. aren't they doing well in Australia?

Hope making big writedowns isn't catchy