Good point. The warehouse where I shop is generaly a lot more active these days than it was 18 months ago and that is why I am looking to buy more shares on the dips. Time to be cautious with WHS is when Cindy opens up international travel, and that's a ways off I reckon.
Even when international travel opens up, its going to be a lot different for kiwis travelling overseas with many popular overseas destinations having covid endemic through society, and as we are seeing while vaccination prevents death & serious illness, it doesn't 100% prevent catching covid.
This will put a lot of people off travelling to USA/UK/Europe/Fiji etc where they will still have covid in the community for years to come, especially if NZ keeps some sort of quarantine or self isolation requirement on return for anyone who catches covid. It might be people might need a pre-departure covid test before returning to NZ, which might mean an unexpected 14 day extension to your holiday if you test positive.
In summary - the spending on overseas holidays is going to remain very subdued for several more years.
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 27-07-2021 at 11:13 AM.
Sounds a bit "cheesy" but for me I have come to realise this sums up WHS quite well.
The reality (that I often forget) is that most families don't have much left over after paying the rent / mortgage, food and bills and you can go into the WHS and get stuff you really need, dirt cheap. Most stuff there is MUCH cheaper than Briscoes.
Interesting Eureka moment for me. I remember our trip down to New Plymouth to Mrs B's mother's funeral earlier this year very well, like it was yesterday. Such an incredibly sad three days, (Mrs B and her mother had been estranged for more than 25 years and now there's no way to ever reconcile) and it rained all the way down, almost all the time there and most of the way back. Mrs B's back was in very bad shape after the long car journey down there...desperately needed a hottie to help ease the pain. It was late at night when we got down there, dark, cold and pouring with rain. Where on earth would we get a hot water bottle at 8.00 p.m. at night on a Sunday ? No idea...maybe some late night Chemist that would charge us like a wounded bull for this basic necessity ? We drove around and the WHS with their newish looking store on a main road was like a beacon on a hill drawing us in. Open till 9.00 p.m. on a Sunday and they had a desperately needed hot water bottle for only $7. What a relief.
I can't help wondering how many other families lives are made better because they can get necessities at a moments notice at dirt cheap prices ?
That watershed moment was the beginning of my journey to seriously investing in WHS shares. The metrics I have talked about recently really speak for themselves and are miles more compelling and out of whack with other listed retailers who all have similar stock procurement and logistical challenges.
Last edited by Beagle; 27-07-2021 at 11:50 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Even when international travel opens up, its going to be a lot different for kiwis travelling overseas with many popular overseas destinations having covid endemic through society, and as we are seeing while vaccination prevents death & serious illness, it doesn't 100% prevent catching covid.
This will put a lot of people off travelling to USA/UK/Europe/Fiji etc where they will still have covid in the community for years to come, especially if NZ keeps some sort of quarantine or self isolation requirement on return for anyone who catches covid. It might be people might need a pre-departure covid test before returning to NZ, which might mean an unexpected 14 day extension to your holiday if you test positive.
In summary - the spending on overseas holidays is going to remain very subdued for several more years.
Not so sure about that. Years ago when we started travelling we had to have a certificate proving vaccination against smallpox, typhoid and other diseases much worse than covid. Didn't stop us going. I suspect that when released Kiwis will fly overseas in their droves and the Warehouse and other retailers may struggle.
Not so sure about that. Years ago when we started travelling we had to have a certificate proving vaccination against smallpox, typhoid and other diseases much worse than covid. Didn't stop us going. I suspect that when released Kiwis will fly overseas in their droves and the Warehouse and other retailers may struggle.
As its classed as a pandemic, will you be able to get medical insurance for a place like Bali? Will it be affordable considering a certain number of people will require hospital treatment even when vaccinated?
Even when international travel opens up, its going to be a lot different for kiwis travelling overseas with many popular overseas destinations having covid endemic through society, and as we are seeing while vaccination prevents death & serious illness, it doesn't 100% prevent catching covid.
This will put a lot of people off travelling to USA/UK/Europe/Fiji etc where they will still have covid in the community for years to come, especially if NZ keeps some sort of quarantine or self isolation requirement on return for anyone who catches covid. It might be people might need a pre-departure covid test before returning to NZ, which might mean an unexpected 14 day extension to your holiday if you test positive.
In summary - the spending on overseas holidays is going to remain very subdued for several more years.
That's how I see it too. Its just not worth the risk. I've given up for the foreseeable future on my dream trip to Switzerland travelling business class and staying in the finest accommodation for several weeks. Find something here to spend the money on instead. I like bargains and the biggest one is WHS shares.
"The warehouse where everyone gets a bargain", especially those buying their shares at present
Last edited by Beagle; 27-07-2021 at 01:18 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Not so sure about that. Years ago when we started travelling we had to have a certificate proving vaccination against smallpox, typhoid and other diseases much worse than covid. Didn't stop us going. I suspect that when released Kiwis will fly overseas in their droves and the Warehouse and other retailers may struggle.
The emerging consensus around the long term impact of covid on recovered people is going to have a bigger impact in future. while immediate concerns are around survival rates, there is already studies indicating the life long impact is worse than heart disease or diabetes, and a drop in mental capacity of 9 IQ points on average. It won't be long before this becomes a significant public concern.
Checked on the history in more normal times. Trading updates on 25 July and 23 August 2019.
This year mid August ?
Disc: Steadily accumulating more.
Last edited by Beagle; 27-07-2021 at 04:18 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by Soolaimon
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