I trust you are like me and to coin one of Percy's favorite sayings, are "well positioned"
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
On the other side of this, products are still difficult to source, with long shipping delays and much higher costs. General business costs overheads are continuing to rise as well. Will we see another min wage rise in April? What about the implications of the fair pay act? What will the effect of a more open border, or higher interest rates on already maxed out mortgages be?
Rising interest rates will primarily impact the small minority of home owners for are first home owners who purchased in the last few years. The rest of the country’s homeowners (the vast majority) are sitting on huge gains creating a massive “wealth effect” that a small rise in interest rates (which are still well below long term average) will have little impact on. And of course the half of the country who rent also won’t be impacted.
I really think the massive impact of the paper wealth created over the last few years has yet to be appreciated by hardly anyone. And for those that have identified it, it’s probably judged to be a topic not for public discussion given the flip side of the situation (housing crisis). The number of millionaires created is absolutely unprecedented though.
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 03-08-2021 at 12:26 AM.
On line shopping is here to stay and that means the browser is not really the device that lets you shop in VR.
These on line platforms will be lucky to last the decade. They will need a whole new technology platform to deliver the experience desired. Luckily the money is with the generation who grew up with the browser and companies can use there on line platforms for a while yet.
IT investments by these retailers will push them use global platforms that deliver the technologies they need to compete with each other.
It will be a case of sprinting just to stay still in the next decade to come.
Are you going to even want to go to crowd places such as sports events or concerts if you know your going to get a dose of the virus.
The whole game has changed and VR shopping could be the next big thing and who want to type on a keyboard to do it...
Want to walk down around crowed places?
Back to WHS and does it have a cost efficient delivery system with robot EV's? The next 20 years will bring huge change and the companies that start to embrace that change are the ones you can invest in for a decade.
MR B moves quickly and it may be a lesson that buy and hold is now a very difficult thing to do for many sectors. Defensives must surely start to make up a good portion of balanced portfolio's.
WHS does it have the track record? Yes it does but will it be able to compete with the competition that will come to NZ.
On line shopping is here to stay and that means the browser is not really the device that lets you shop in VR.
These on line platforms will be lucky to last the decade. They will need a whole new technology platform to deliver the experience desired. Luckily the money is with the generation who grew up with the browser and companies can use there on line platforms for a while yet.
IT investments by these retailers will push them use global platforms that deliver the technologies they need to compete with each other.
It will be a case of sprinting just to stay still in the next decade to come.
Are you going to even want to go to crowd places such as sports events or concerts if you know your going to get a dose of the virus.
The whole game has changed and VR shopping could be the next big thing and who want to type on a keyboard to do it...
Want to walk down around crowed places?
Back to WHS and does it have a cost efficient delivery system with robot EV's? The next 20 years will bring huge change and the companies that start to embrace that change are the ones you can invest in for a decade.
MR B moves quickly and it may be a lesson that buy and hold is now a very difficult thing to do.
WHS does it have the track record? Yes it does but will it be able to compete with the competition that will come to NZ.
Buy and hold still works for MFT and FPH kind of stocks not for cyclicals like WHS and HLG ...unless they get the advantage over others by much advanced in technology and delivery systems . I will not bet on WHS to adapt so quickly with their ancient thinking and ways of doing things ...Briscoes maybe better bet but only time will tell .
next 5 years WHS is looking very stable and a BUY... MR B knows how to pick them.
With Labour under the pump and the lipstick smeared there is real pressure to keep the economy on its feet..
MIQ lacking to meet demand to put the economy back into action the economy could be running hot but it not at full revs.
Capital markets in NZ need attention with teeth to the FMA , tech R&D required. If the film industry treatment had been handed to manufacturing and tech we might have seen a bigger NZX.
Buy and hold still works for MFT and FPH kind of stocks not for cyclicals like WHS and HLG ...unless they get the advantage over others by much advanced in technology and delivery systems . I will not bet on WHS to adapt so quickly with their ancient thinking and ways of doing things ...Briscoes maybe better bet but only time will tell .
Nobody is disputing Rod Duke's retail expertise however on a trailing PE of 17 and with the same procurement and logistical challenges as other retailers I feel Briscoes is fully priced in the circumstances.
WHS is a classic turnaround story. They've stripped a lot of cost out of the business (700 staff last year) and talk of a flatter management structure. Overhaling their inventory management systems, store within a store with Warehouse Stationary, possible retail footprint rationalization, (WALT of stores is just 4 years) and a range of other initiatives some of which will hopefully be eps accretive.
I would rather invest in a turnaround story on a current year PE of around 6.5 than pay up handsomely for perfection. Benefits have increased and many other Kiwi's will be doing it tougher in the years ahead with rising interest rates and that will drive them to make value buying decisions.
I think international travel is unlikely to revert to 2019 levels for many many years and people will spend that money here instead.
Last edited by Beagle; 03-08-2021 at 01:28 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Old mate
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