Hosking has roasted dear young Mr Hipkins this morning.
Mr B has gone to cash and its a prudent move.
The R number is still going up.
There is no firm date in place for Auckland but level 2 likely for Waka Too and possible Northland in 2 weeks time if no spread.
Auckland is another matter.
Support for hospitality, catering and retail sector needs to be top of list this week from the minister.
Cant see 5 dollars by xmas.
If the number explode in auckland then level 4 will be the only option left as the unvaccinated numbers are still too high.
Would not be surprised to see a tighter border set up.
IMF is forecasting over 5 percent global growth.
No global recession forecast and no recession forecast for NZ.
I’m not at all predicting $5 for WHS anytime soon. I’m in the more realistic middle-of-the-road camp that thinks both the Uber-bears and Uber-bulls are both being unrealistic to varying degrees.
I think the dividend will be paid as announced. I think retail in Auckland will be open very soon as it’s due to open in the next “Alert Level 3 - Step 2” phase of the reopening plan, which I think happens not long after Auckland hits 90% first dose/75% 2nd dose, so in about 2-3 weeks.
I think it also goes without question that WHS 1st half year revenue will be down year-on-year, with a big drop in the first quarter (Aug-Oct), followed by a healthy 2nd quarter (Nov-Jan). 2nd half year performance will be fine, and will be accompanied by NZX50 index inclusion.
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 13-10-2021 at 08:41 AM.
I’m not at all predicting $5 for WHS anytime soon. I’m in the more realistic middle-of-the-road camp that thinks both the Uber-bears and Uber-bulls are both being unrealistic to varying degrees.
I think the dividend will be paid as announced. I think retail in Auckland will be open very soon as it’s due to open in the next “Alert Level 3 - Step 2” phase of the reopening plan, which I think happens not long after Auckland hits 90% first dose/75% 2nd dose, so in about 2-3 weeks.
I think it also goes without question that WHS 1st half year revenue will be down year-on-year, with a big drop in the first quarter (Aug-Oct), followed by a healthy 2nd quarter (Nov-Jan). 2nd half year performance will be fine, and will be accompanied by NZX50 index inclusion.
Why I sold...have a think about these two different situations.
Situation A just on 2 1/2 months ago.
We were the envy of the world with level 1 freedoms and safety anyone else in the world could only dream of.
WHS were on track to easily beat net profit after tax of $160m, with many expecting $170m plus.
Customers were spending freely, all shops were open and interest rates were ultra low.
Situation B - The current situation
The halo has well and truly slipped and its been exposed that Cindy's kindergarten have done nothing to improve upon our woefully inadequate level of ICU hospital beds despite having 18 months to improve the situation leaving the only effective tool in the kit to encourage everyone to vaccinate and lockdown endlessly because to do anything else will overrun the health system
The wider Auckland region, about one third of the entire population has been in one serious level of lockdown or another for more than 20 weeks and there's no sure end in sight
Its been reported that more than 13,000 business's shut permanently in September and many thousands are on the dole queue
Sales year to date have slipped 22% and analysts have downgraded the current year outlook to around $125m a significant (approx $50m) reduction from FY21.
We are on a knife edge of whether this Delta variant will explode throughout the country or not.
Okay so contrasting the above two situations.
If you did a "blind test" and had no share price history which of these situations would you say warranted a share price of ~ $3.30 and which warranted a share price of ~ $4.10 ?
I would suggest the risks and rewards of these two situations and their respective share price points are very, very different. One was a compelling buy and the other is a risky hold, (at best).
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
With increasing vaccination rates retail country wide will be open within a month, irrespective of what covid is doing. Rest of the world has managed to move on and so will we. Services sector will be most impacted.
Why I sold...have a think about these two different situations.
Situation A just on 2 1/2 months ago.
We were the envy of the world with level 1 freedoms and safety anyone else in the world could only dream of.
WHS were on track to easily beat net profit after tax of $160m, with many expecting $170m plus.
Customers were spending freely, all shops were open and interest rates were ultra low.
Situation B - The current situation
The halo has well and truly slipped and its been exposed that Cindy's kindergarten have done nothing to improve upon our woefully inadequate level of ICU hospital beds despite having 18 months to improve the situation leaving the only effective tool in the kit to encourage everyone to vaccinate and lockdown endlessly because to do anything else will overrun the health system
The wider Auckland region, about one third of the entire population has been in one serious level of lockdown or another for more than 20 weeks and there's no sure end in sight
Its been reported that more than 13,000 business's shut permanently in September and many thousands are on the dole queue
Sales year to date have slipped 22% and analysts have downgraded the current year outlook to around $125m a significant (approx $50m) reduction from FY21.
We are on a knife edge of whether this Delta variant will explode throughout the country or not.
Okay so contrasting the above two situations.
If you did a "blind test" and had no share price history which of these situations would you say warranted a share price of ~ $3.30 and which warranted a share price of ~ $4.10 ?
I would suggest the risks and rewards of these two situations and their respective share price points are very, very different. One was a compelling buy and the other is a risky hold, (at best).
The current $125 million NPAT you quote above for current financial year is a PE multiple of just 11x. Safe buying in my books, especially when that includes the current lockdown impacted sales environment.
Current Auckland lockdown has only been 7-8 weeks. Not sure what relevance there is to people lumping in 12 or 13 other lockdown weeks from the last two financial years with the current situation. maybe I’m missing the point there.
im not 100% supportive of the government actions either, my biggest gripe is they should have ASAP starting in June last year commenced building a purpose built very large quarantine center with dedicated hospital in an isolated area (Ohakea air base would have been perfect), rather than continuing MIQ in population centers for the last 18 months.
a popular topic for media to talk about at present (supply struggles for retailers!) but both Briscoes Group and Warehouse group say they have built larger than normal inventories for the Xmas season.
Possibly a situation where the largest retailers are going to benefit the most while the smaller retail firms without the same supply chains end up losing out.
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Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul
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