WHS - Warehouse Group

[cymonger]

I repost this chart of Red Sheds sales v NZ Retail sales over time which may put some recent comments in context. TWG management used to maintain similar charts for internal purposes and possibly still do.


Note:

1 - annual retail sales growth in NZ doesn't go negative (or if it does in one quarter it soon recovers)
2 - Red Shed sales growth has at times gone negative - generally when economy is not performing that well (2008-2011 and 2018)
3 - Red Shed sales growth has generally been less than total retail sales growth (ie lost share)

The chart also 'suggests' / shows that the popular thesis that when things get a bit tighter (economically) punters don't go in droves to Red Sheds)



Some have got stuck in beagle (and me) for maybe painting a doomsday scenario next year. What we've actually said is that retail could be subdued next year or so (ie low or no growth) ......and I say that Red Sheds does not always benefit when things get 'subdued' - that's a fallacy

Just as well TWG have other brands besides Red Sheds but don't forget that retailers are first to maon when sales growth slows and it generally impacts on profitability

But whatever TWG will continue to be profitable(at least on an adjusted profit basis) but whether we see another $170m year is in the laps of the gods

It's a little more than that though. Beagle has been WRONG about everything to do with this stock recently, and if you listened to him you would have lost a lot of money these last couple of months. First he tells us there won't be a dividend. He sells at 4. What has happened since then? A massive dividend is now on record. But then he tells us the stock is going to tank after the dividend goes ex. And where is the stock today? 4 dollars. So if you had followed his very negative advice, you would have lost out on a huge amount of money. I appreciate you sharing charts and making your case in a respectful way. But when someone has been that wrong that about something that is so easily documented by their own quotes, their credibility with regard to that stock has to be called into question.

[Beagle]

It's a little more than that though. Beagle has been WRONG about everything to do with this stock recently, and if you listened to him you would have lost a lot of money these last couple of months. First he tells us there won't be a dividend. He sells at 4. What has happened since then? A massive dividend is now on record. But then he tells us the stock is going to tank after the dividend goes ex. And where is the stock today? 4 dollars. So if you had followed his very negative advice, you would have lost out on a huge amount of money. I appreciate you sharing charts and making your case in a respectful way. But when someone has been that wrong that about something that is so easily documented by their own quotes, their credibility with regard to that stock has to be called into question.

You're absolutely full of it. Let me put the facts on the record. I called this a screaming buy at $3.30 a few months ago. Anyone who followed that call has made A LOT of money in a very short period of time in a down market. I called it fully priced at $4.10 very recently. 80 cents profit in a few months in a falling market, WOW ! I said the dividend was a 50/50 call. Its dropped 10 cents since I called it fully priced and paid a 17 cent dividend, so that's me missing the top by a whole 7 cents net. Big bloody deal. You really are a waste of my time. If you see no value in my posts please put me on your ignore setting. You made my list that's for sure !

[bull....]

actually i called the warehouse run first and i called the top at results time so i am pleased you read my posts

[ratkin]

actually i called the warehouse run first and i called the top at results time so i am pleased you read my posts

No I called it first, first day of initial lockdown, backed up the truck at average 1.55 Am I still holding, yes. I see potential for a game changing foray into the supermarket space.

[see weed]

I would like to say thank you to all callers of WHS. Beagle, Bull and ratkin and others. I was a late starter buying in from $3.65 through to 3.90s and then buying a lot more in the $4s and then selling some in the upper 4s, kept enough for the div. Am happy with outcome so far. $6,700 profit from lot sold, $10,675 div. and the remaining shares still in the green by $9,632. Again, thank you to all callers, and as usual Beagle, oysters all round at next st meeting

[winner69]

No I called it first, first day of initial lockdown, backed up the truck at average 1.55 Am I still holding, yes. I see potential for a game changing foray into the supermarket space.

Yes ratkin, you did indeed call it first that day in the market panic

I waited until things settled down and they said the worst was over and got in when share price was in 220's last October

Not done as good as you mate but still doubled my money (with dividends) ... not complaining

Going from memory I think beagle started buying below .... thought jeez if beagle sees value WHS must be a goer

[Rawz]

Pretty sure most companies people bought during COVID crash has since doubled

(Not to steal anyones thunder)

The real legends are those that can pick the winners right now in todays market

[Beagle]

Not so much about right now in my opinion but as this year starts to draw towards a close its coming around to the time to reflect on what a tough year its been. If anyone's portfolio is up 10% plus in 2021 when the NZX50 is down 3% they should probably give themselves a really good pat on the back and put their feet up and have a beer. Up 20%+ this year ? you're a legend !

[ratkin]

Not so much about right now in my opinion but as this year starts to draw towards a close its coming around to the time to reflect on what a tough year its been. If anyone's portfolio is up 10% plus in 2021 when the NZX50 is down 3% they should probably give themselves a really good pat on the back and put their feet up and have a beer. Up 20%+ this year ? you're a legend !

The trick is not to have too many NZ stocks some of my best performers this last year or so have been some of the smartshare ETFs although they may be starting to stall a little but EUF and BOT etc have outperformed the NZ market by a good margin

The days of our market being the world's best performer have gone now

[Habits]

No I called it first, first day of initial lockdown, backed up the truck at average 1.55 Am I still holding, yes. I see potential for a game changing foray into the supermarket space.

We bought at $1.65 on the day that WHS got slammed by ardern and co for pre announcing they were essential and would be open during 2020 lockdown. Good on ya for catching the earliest wave