WHS - Warehouse Group

[Waltzing]

Winner(n ), Treasury NZ says growth over 2.5 % next 3 years.

effects of HUGE GDP brought forward.

and with OMI just around the next bend can they afford to stop the support?

has the country HIT the OPEN Road ahead? Doesnt look open yet and more support maybe needed with Europe entering a Wave bigger than ever seen before.

Boasters and more Boasters for the next 2 years.

2022 is the year of the OMI and its just getting started.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

In a piece by Gaynor in BusinessDesk yesterday he reminded me that ‘House price inflation in New Zealand is highly correlated with consumption growth.”

Every guru seems to be predicting house prices won’t go up much next with many saying they will fall.

Retail environment might be rather subdued this time next year …with TWG reporting little or no sales growth. The large growth numbers might be behind them

Subdued sales growth with costs affected by inflation …..lower profits?

New Zealand property owners have experienced the largest wealth gain ever in the last 18-24 months - I would think that “wealth effect” will last for quite some time, even if house price growth plateaued or shrunk a little in 2022.

For example if someone whose property has increased in value by $300k since March 2020, will they suddenly feel less wealthy if there property has small to no gains in value gains over the next 12 months?

One has to consider that the wealth gains from property over 2020/2021 on an absolute basis have vastly overshadowed anything like that seen in the past. A 33% gain on a $900k property is an entirely different ballpark to a 33% gain on a $500k property 10 years ago.

Many people (basically anyone with a large owner occupied home in a major metro center, or those with at least one investment property) have seen a life changing difference in there personal circumstances where they are re-evaluating what the rest of their lives may be like and are making different decisions about what they are choosing to spent their discretionary income on.

Couple that with the continued lack of international travel/holiday options, and I don’t think retail has much to worry about in 2022.

The one thing in regards to housing wealth & retail spending that I think would be negative is if there was instead a significant large fall in house price values over 2022 (greater than 15%), at which point I would agree that would negatively impact retail sales to a degree.

[winner69]

I know this is a load of ****e and these times are different but Westpac reports consumer confidence continues to fall ..and more pessimists than optimist and Many households have reported their financial position has deteriorated over the past year, and a growing number expect their finances will come under pressure in the new year.

https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wib...Westpac_NZ.pdf

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I know this is a load of ****e and these times are different but Westpac reports consumer confidence continues to fall ..and more pessimists than optimist and Many households have reported their financial position has deteriorated over the past year, and a growing number expect their finances will come under pressure in the new year.

https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wib...Westpac_NZ.pdf

Interesting that consumer confidence has actually remained the same or increased in 2 of the 3 biggest population centers - Consumer confidence is up in the Auckland region & the same in Wellington. Together those 2 regions account for a very sizable fraction of NZs High income earners. Confidence also up in Otago (Dunedin/Queenstown etc).

Christchurch, Waikato & bay of Plenty had sizable falls, and its perhaps no coincidence that those regions had new covid outbreaks at the time the survey was conducted, so it may be a temporary fear panic driven result happening there.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Record retail spending:

RECORD SPENDING
Worldline (Paymark) is reporting that with just five days left till Christmas, spending at retail stores is trending at record levels. While the easing of Auckland’s Covid-19-induced boundary restrictions last week allowed for more movement of people across the country resulting in higher spending on accommodation in the Bay of Plenty, Waikato and Auckland/Northland regions, the dominant pattern across the nation was the ongoing surge in spending ahead of Christmas Day.

[winner69]

Record retail spending:

RECORD SPENDING
Worldline (Paymark) is reporting that with just five days left till Christmas, spending at retail stores is trending at record levels. .

Good story worth bolding and getting the attraction of punters

But in reality every December sees record sales (at least in last 20 years)

December Electronic Card spend in December always higher than previous December

So we would expect a record December this year ....just like last December was also a record year

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Good story worth bolding and getting the attraction of punters

But in reality every December sees record sales (at least in last 20 years)

December Electronic Card spend in December always higher than previous December

So we would expect a record December this year ....just like last December was also a record year

So your saying lower consumer confidence & an uptick in mortgage interest rates are not enough to stop increasing year-on-year retail spending?

It appears we are in agreement then.

[winner69]

So your saying lower consumer confidence & an uptick in mortgage interest rates are not enough to stop increasing year-on-year retail spending?

It appears we are in agreement then.

Inflation helps a bit

Yes ....... an an annual basis retail in NZ retail sales never go backwards .... even when house prices collapse

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Inflation helps a bit

Yes ....... an an annual basis retail in NZ retail sales never go backwards .... even when house prices collapse

Is that true? Thanks for that, a useful thing to know.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

ANZ released its consumer confidence survey yesterday, which was to the (small) upside:

The final consumer confidence survey for the year is out, this one from ANZ Roy Morgan. It reports little change at a low level, up +1.7 points. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item rose +6 points to 0, after three months in the red. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.6%.