WHS - Warehouse Group

[samdaman]

I don't know about the WHS, divvy is good but other stocks show better. Profits around the same levels as they have been for yonks. Growth in fact declining in a changing market. Intelligent investors would put more money on a better horse in my opinion I can't see a great lot of reason to stick with these guys.

Maybe if the SP did tank and the dividends held up it may be a reason to buy some up. At current prices for me it just doesn't seem appealing. Warmly welcoming opinions about this company as some seem to like it.

[percy]

LOL you guys have the attention spans of hamsters... Investing is about marathons not sprints. Retail is difficult...yes...business is slow everywhere....yes. However WHS is in a better space than most retail because they are fast adapters, have multi channel offerings, have a strong brand, have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year. They also recognise and are capitalizing on new ways of shopping and above all have always offered great buying to the NZ public by way of "cheaper than high st" pricing. So is retail dead....no its changing and WHS is not getting left behind because its always shown it adapts well and fast. So what if it has to blow out some lines at cost or just over...punters get a buy, cash flow keeps coming, new stock in and punters are back for more good buying. Buying shares in WHS is always a good idea...when SP takes a dive maybe time to look for a spot/ way in. DYOR and all the other stuff of course.

On behalf of The Hamster population I must ask the question"why do you Leeemings throw yourselves off the cliff"?
I do agree with your judgement of WHS's fundamentals.However you must get your entry/exit right,
Whether it is marathons or simply getting on the wrong bus,the longer you are on board going the wrong way, the more opportunities you have missed,on making a capital gain and an increasing dividend from a growing business.

[winner69]

LOL you guys have the attention spans of hamsters... Investing is about marathons not sprints. Retail is difficult...yes...business is slow everywhere....yes. However WHS is in a better space than most retail because they are fast adapters, have multi channel offerings, have a strong brand, have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year. They also recognise and are capitalizing on new ways of shopping and above all have always offered great buying to the NZ public by way of "cheaper than high st" pricing. So is retail dead....no its changing and WHS is not getting left behind because its always shown it adapts well and fast. So what if it has to blow out some lines at cost or just over...punters get a buy, cash flow keeps coming, new stock in and punters are back for more good buying. Buying shares in WHS is always a good idea...when SP takes a dive maybe time to look for a spot/ way in. DYOR and all the other stuff of course.

Might be true mate.

So WHS fast adapters, multichanneled, have a strong brand and exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

[Beagle]

At $60m NPAT this will be the worst result since 2006 (8 years ago)

I realised how bad Warehouse performance has really been since 2006 until I looked up the numbers. In 2007 NPAT was $115m and this has steadily declined to the current $60m. Last year 2013 was actually the only year that profit was better than the year prior.

So in spite of changes in strategic direction, acquisitions, range extensions, going more upmarket, store revamps, going online and all sort of stuff each years profit performance has been worse than the year before (except for 2013)

That's some record I reckon.

I still don't believe it but that is what the numbers say

Percy says retail stuffed (or difficult at the moment) and backing perennial losers in such a market is not a good idea.

But the weasel words Simon quoted in an earlier post must mean something. So this time is different eh and 2015 will be a great year for WHS with profits close to $100m

+1 I have never liked their tired market offering and N.Z. customers are clearly well and truly "over it". In my view this stock is like Kentucky Fried Chicken...its been around for so long you remember it from your youth. Its a very, very tired old brand and much like KFC you inherently know much of what they sell is no good for you. "The bitter taste of poor quality lingers long after the thrill of a bargain" An old cliche, but a good one and in WHS's case we're talking about an apparent bargain...had a look at K Mart prices lately ?

Noel Leeming will continue to struggle against Harvey Norman who get far bigger rebates from the distributors based on their vastly greater volume. Online continues to grow much like the CEO's salary which at nearly $2m for the level of profit this company makes looks grossly excessive.

[BIRMANBOY]

I'll leave the detailed analysis to you W 69..you're much better at it than me. It comes down to whats in it for me on a personal level. For me it has performed extremely well due to good (lucky) timing. I'm prepared to let it run and do its stuff for as long as it keeps me happy. When it doesn't ..I'm off...like now to play some tennis. Keep me posted on developments periodically though...I appreciate it.

Might be true mate.

So WHS fast adapters, multichanneled, have a strong brand and exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

[winner69]

Might be true mate.

So WHS are fast adapters, multi channeled, have a strong brand and have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

Went to a Red Shed and a Stationery and a Leemings today

Methinks all those above mentioned things that Birman said stood WHS in good steed is essentially needed just to survive in a changing world.

Survive means making about as much money as the year before is a good result .....unlike this years pretty sad effort

[winner69]

I'll leave the detailed analysis to you W 69..you're much better at it than me. It comes down to whats in it for me on a personal level. For me it has performed extremely well due to good (lucky) timing. I'm prepared to let it run and do its stuff for as long as it keeps me happy. When it doesn't ..I'm off...like now to play some tennis. Keep me posted on developments periodically though...I appreciate it.

Will do Birman.

Glad tou mentioned good (lucky) timing with this investment. Without that it would have been a disaster eh

So you really are a trader .....trading prices rather investing on fundamentals.

How the tennis go today? You got Amelie coaching you yet for you assault on Wimbledon?

[BIRMANBOY]

Disaster is a bit tough I think....you have to agree its been pumping out good dividends regularly and also just last year SP was up to 4.40 or something. Its a difficult share to understand and its in a difficult segment so I can see how its not that popular. However in saying that there are a lot of buyers lined up buying shares at the current prices. That tells me that there are probably a lot of investors who see it as a good income stock. I will be back in as well when the SP looks like its turned. I'm not a trader because I hardly ever sell but I do look very keenly at SP and this is one of those times when recent events have been the instigator of selling and we all know there are some people who get spooked very easily and abandon ship hastily. I like a SP that moves a bit since it creates opportunities for both traders to see benefits and holders to pick their moments for best buying. And of course while this all happening , in the background we have a good dividend. I don't ignore fundamentals but I do think they are just one tool in picking a good investment. The most important measurement tool is actual performance for the holder. As for Andy Murray...after several years with Ivan Lendl he's probably needing a bit of a break strange choice for a coach but he must have seen something he liked.

Will do Birman.

Glad tou mentioned good (lucky) timing with this investment. Without that it would have been a disaster eh

So you really are a trader .....trading prices rather investing on fundamentals.

How the tennis go today? You got Amelie coaching you yet for you assault on Wimbledon?

[bull....]

im prepared to see if its a one off seasonal thing, maybe they need to plan better as warmer winters are becoming more common these days

[winner69]

im prepared to see if its a one off seasonal thing, maybe they need to plan better as warmer winters are becoming more common these days

This time last year they said 'In spite of one of the warmest winters on record gross margins were up 1.3% to 36.3% their highest in several years'

So what's gone wrong this year?

Their profit shortfall to expectations is about $10m - something that's happened over the last month or so as they were pretty bullish just 6 weeks ago.

That $10m is $10m of stuff to be given away at cost or $15-20m of heavily discounted sales.

You are pretty forgiving bull .....I reckon they don't have their finger on the pulse.

Maybe systemic through the business ........resulting in profits declining over many years (except one lucky year in 2013)