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27-10-2015, 02:22 PM
#1971
For what's it worth ASB have annual TSR for the last few years as
2010 -4%
2011 +8%
2012 -21%
2013. +60%
2014 -14%
2015. -14%
Current year is negative
Based on WHS reporting years and with dividends reinvested.
So 1 boomer year and 4 bad years in the last 6. The boomer year doesn't offset the bad years.
But yes timing purchases and buy at real low points and holding probably can give you 10% pa.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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27-10-2015, 02:53 PM
#1972
Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY
Yes I would hesitate as well ..........however suggest anything you want...it needs to stand up to scrutiny however. AIR cal yr ended 2014 dividend was 20cents giving good current yield %...previous 6/7years dividend never got over 8.5 cents. Fuel goes up, passengers down, div goes back to 3%? One year of good results is promising..but show me 8 years worth of solid high yield divs and I'll consider it. As I said depends on your circumstances and not for me but for you maybe its the holy grail. At the risk of repeating myself WHS is unsexy but reliable.
Two very different bets I think: one you are gambling you'll get out with your shirt before the wheels come off; the other you are gambling they'll eventually figure out how to get the wheels back on.
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27-10-2015, 03:32 PM
#1973
Last edited by BIRMANBOY; 27-10-2015 at 03:34 PM.
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27-10-2015, 08:23 PM
#1974
Originally Posted by Biscuit
I agree, everyone has their own methods, and what works for one doesn't necessarily work for other people. You can buy share price "trends", or you can buy "dividends" but neither means anything in my view without "growth". Where is WHS growth going to come from?
That is stupid. You can find value even in bankrupt companies if the price is right.
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27-10-2015, 09:36 PM
#1975
Originally Posted by James108
That is stupid. You can find value even in bankrupt companies if the price is right.
You are very blunt, James. Yes, value is relative and if you can get it cheap enough, a company that does not grow could be a good short term investment, but it most likely won't be in my experience.
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27-10-2015, 11:22 PM
#1976
Originally Posted by Biscuit
You are very blunt, James.
LOL - good music joke Mr Biscuit!
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28-10-2015, 07:59 AM
#1977
Originally Posted by James108
That is stupid. You can find value even in bankrupt companies if the price is right.
Pretty harsh to say Biscuit is 'stupid' for considering 'Growth' prospects are important IMHO.
The recent growth in AIR and TIL and others may be attributed to fundamentals or trends however the reality is that their potential double or triple digit GROWTH prospects are a key to the SP rising. I would say it is stupid not to consider growth prospects in looking to invest in any company, and in relation to WHS the struggling growth prospects of retailers are well recorded. Even Buffet is struggling with Wal Mart.
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28-10-2015, 08:40 AM
#1978
Best describe Birman as a trader - a trader of bonds
He buys WHS shares for the 17 cents dividend (tax free). So look at from the perspective of the share being a 'bond' whose face value goes up and down according to the sentiment if investors.
Birman has been astute enough to buy these 'bonds' when they cheap thus increasing his yield. Well done
Birman not a gambler - birman a bond trader
WHS share better return than the WHS020 real bonds - coupon 5.3% currently yielding 4.3% (pre tax)
Quite a few companies like this on the nzx - profits pretty stable with not much growth but generating heaps of cash. Don't always need growth.
Last edited by winner69; 28-10-2015 at 08:43 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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28-10-2015, 08:56 AM
#1979
Nothing wrong with holding some WHS shares, its a NZ institution and ain't going away anytime soon and it is actually growing by acquisition and so patience required, but in the meantime just keep collecting those divvies.
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28-10-2015, 08:59 AM
#1980
Originally Posted by winner69
Best describe Birman as a trader - a trader of bonds
Birman has been astute enough to buy these 'bonds' when they cheap thus increasing his yield.
Fair enough, and he has been more astute than me. I bought WHS a while ago thinking they might be cheap if the new strategy could turn things around, but I got tired of waiting. I think the dividend has almost cancelled out the capital loss. Think you would have to be pretty astute to make on the deal long term unless they start getting traction somewhere.
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