WHS - Warehouse Group

[winner69]

For what's it worth ASB have annual TSR for the last few years as

2010 -4%
2011 +8%
2012 -21%
2013. +60%
2014 -14%
2015. -14%
Current year is negative

Based on WHS reporting years and with dividends reinvested.

So 1 boomer year and 4 bad years in the last 6. The boomer year doesn't offset the bad years.

But yes timing purchases and buy at real low points and holding probably can give you 10% pa.

[Biscuit]

Yes I would hesitate as well ..........however suggest anything you want...it needs to stand up to scrutiny however. AIR cal yr ended 2014 dividend was 20cents giving good current yield %...previous 6/7years dividend never got over 8.5 cents. Fuel goes up, passengers down, div goes back to 3%? One year of good results is promising..but show me 8 years worth of solid high yield divs and I'll consider it. As I said depends on your circumstances and not for me but for you maybe its the holy grail. At the risk of repeating myself WHS is unsexy but reliable.

Two very different bets I think: one you are gambling you'll get out with your shirt before the wheels come off; the other you are gambling they'll eventually figure out how to get the wheels back on.

[BIRMANBOY]

I don't bet and I don't gamble but I see your analogy (as flawed as it is)....however yes the share market is not far removed from the casino....but the alternative is a term deposit at 3.5%. I did an analysis a while back to see whether I would have been better off putting capital into a TD and over a 6 year period the shares (all div producers) outperformed TD by average of 100%. Getting out of a few bad eggs with a few capital loss's is figured into those returns. What the future hold 20 years ahead I have no idea but I expect a similar if not growing return. WHS is a cornerstone of my portfolio and is added to in moments of SP weakness ....all based on experience which is continually being evaluated. Mr. Buffett doesn't like airlines and I respect his results. Check back in 20 years and we can compare notes.

Two very different bets I think: one you are gambling you'll get out with your shirt before the wheels come off; the other you are gambling they'll eventually figure out how to get the wheels back on.

[James108]

I agree, everyone has their own methods, and what works for one doesn't necessarily work for other people. You can buy share price "trends", or you can buy "dividends" but neither means anything in my view without "growth". Where is WHS growth going to come from?

That is stupid. You can find value even in bankrupt companies if the price is right.

[Biscuit]

That is stupid. You can find value even in bankrupt companies if the price is right.

You are very blunt, James. Yes, value is relative and if you can get it cheap enough, a company that does not grow could be a good short term investment, but it most likely won't be in my experience.

[Crackity]

You are very blunt, James.

LOL - good music joke Mr Biscuit!

[Leftfield]

That is stupid. You can find value even in bankrupt companies if the price is right.

Pretty harsh to say Biscuit is 'stupid' for considering 'Growth' prospects are important IMHO.

The recent growth in AIR and TIL and others may be attributed to fundamentals or trends however the reality is that their potential double or triple digit GROWTH prospects are a key to the SP rising. I would say it is stupid not to consider growth prospects in looking to invest in any company, and in relation to WHS the struggling growth prospects of retailers are well recorded. Even Buffet is struggling with Wal Mart.

[winner69]

Best describe Birman as a trader - a trader of bonds

He buys WHS shares for the 17 cents dividend (tax free). So look at from the perspective of the share being a 'bond' whose face value goes up and down according to the sentiment if investors.

Birman has been astute enough to buy these 'bonds' when they cheap thus increasing his yield. Well done

Birman not a gambler - birman a bond trader

WHS share better return than the WHS020 real bonds - coupon 5.3% currently yielding 4.3% (pre tax)

Quite a few companies like this on the nzx - profits pretty stable with not much growth but generating heaps of cash. Don't always need growth.

[couta1]

Nothing wrong with holding some WHS shares, its a NZ institution and ain't going away anytime soon and it is actually growing by acquisition and so patience required, but in the meantime just keep collecting those divvies.

[Biscuit]

Best describe Birman as a trader - a trader of bonds

Birman has been astute enough to buy these 'bonds' when they cheap thus increasing his yield.

Fair enough, and he has been more astute than me. I bought WHS a while ago thinking they might be cheap if the new strategy could turn things around, but I got tired of waiting. I think the dividend has almost cancelled out the capital loss. Think you would have to be pretty astute to make on the deal long term unless they start getting traction somewhere.