sharetrader
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 94
  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Adelaide
    Posts
    216

    Default Astron - ATR: A zircon player in Aus and China

    If I've got this right, threads started over 2 years ago haven't been carried over to the new forum...?

    So I thought I'd start a new thread for Astron since I hold. If the old thread turns up, we'll just ignore this shall we.

    So for anyone that hasn't heard of Astron (which is probably most people given the illiquidity of the stock), the are a zircon materials company that operates mostly in China, but is listed in Australia. They import zircon raw materials to their Chinese factories (which are of course low cost by world standards) and do various value adding things (it's complicated) to the zircon flour and sell numerous downstream products.

    They have a strong revenue that is roughly equal to their market cap at the moment which has been growing continously for many years. Their NTA are also pretty close to market cap. NPAT was growing strongly but stalled a little over the last year. However, they have quite a large capacity expansion coming online for high value fused zirconia products that is expected to increase revenue and profit in the near future.

    They are also developing the Donald Mineral Sands mine in Aus, which, if it gets up and running (i think they're a year or two away from that) will make them a vertically integrated zircon producer/supplier.

    They have paid a divident of 10c for the last two years, expect NPAT to be around $20 million, and at the current price of $2.35, that gives them a market cap of $140 mil and P/E of about 7.

    Anyway, only wanted to find this thread to point out that there were 270k shares traded today. Now that isn't a lot by any standard, but as I pointed out before, the biggest problem with this company is liquidity (i think the top 20 shareholders own something like 80% of the company), and that's the most shares traded in a day in over 2 years! Also, they've had a couple of dodgy disclosure issues in the past, so though something might be up.

    Cheers

    Damo

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Where do you get NPAT of $20 Mill from?

    The latest guidance (released in November) was for $18mill.

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Adelaide
    Posts
    216

    Wink

    Was writing from memory TLA87. I stand corrected

  4. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Sweet :-)

    They haven't announced a change to that guidance, so here's hoping they hit it. Looking very cheap if they do.

  5. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Adelaide
    Posts
    216

    Default

    Yup, definately hope so. I put the money I made from selling half my shares in ADY into Astron, making it my single biggest holding right now.

    Wonder what happened concerning that possible 'transaction' (takeover?) mentioned a few months back?

  6. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    121

    Default

    Whoah! See this morning's announcement?

    Surprised the bid is still only $2.50...

  7. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by stephen View Post
    Whoah! See this morning's announcement?

    Surprised the bid is still only $2.50...

    Why would you post that before open?

    Retard.

  8. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    427

    Default

    Well sellers are currently cleaned out.
    Look to me that the shares are worth something north of $4.50.

  9. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    After the sale they will have $3.85 a share in cash backing.

    I would say it is worth anywhere between $3.60 and $4.50 depending on the value the market gives to the Donald project and the earnout component of the purchase price (could be worth another $50mill cash), less the capital costs of establishing the mining operations and the titanium processing plant.

  10. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , .
    Posts
    306

    Talking

    Amazing stuff.

    Well done to the patient shareholders who held on!

  11. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    121

    Default

    "Retard"

    Geez, that's a bit harsh.

  12. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Adelaide
    Posts
    216

    Default

    Ahem... Firstly - Woohoo!
    Have increased my holding twice in the last 3 weeks. Something (blind luck perhaps) told me something could be up.
    I wonder what this'll trade up to today. Given the cash position will be $3.85 a share, and that they still have a substantial busines in the the DMS and Gambia, I'm surprised it didn't open up near $4. I think I'll hold until it gets up to about that level at the very least.
    Well done holders!

  13. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Damo,

    Most of that cash is earmarked for investment in capital spending on Donald and the TiO2 venture, so there is likely to be a discount built in to the sp.

  14. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by stephen View Post
    "Retard"

    Geez, that's a bit harsh.

    I was annoyed at the time because my leading bid for 10k shares at 2.80 on open got overtaken by bids for 60k or so of shares 1 minuted before trading started.

  15. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    37

    Default

    One thing I'm not too sure about is how much tax they'd have to pay on the sale of the plants. And whether it's under Chinese or Australian corporate jurisdiction. Management should have made some sort of indication.

  16. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    121

    Default

    So the first rule of Sharetrader is - don't say anything until it's too late. I will curb my impulses in future.

  17. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by drworm View Post
    One thing I'm not too sure about is how much tax they'd have to pay on the sale of the plants. And whether it's under Chinese or Australian corporate jurisdiction. Management should have made some sort of indication.
    Good point.

    They are Chinese companies that are being sold so no Australian CGT should be payable. The question would be whether there is capital gains tax on the sale of chinese shares...

  18. #18
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SectorSurfa View Post
    thought you may enjoy this read TILA87

    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007082...16w8wf4l9x.pdf
    Thanks, that was interesting.

    ATR's report out today shows that we are lucky a sale agreement has been entered into.

    It is difficult to understand why a revised forecast was not issued to the market. Surely they would have known that the company was going to miss its forecast by 20% !!!

  19. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , .
    Posts
    306

    Post

    TLA

    From memory you picked somewhere around $14m NPAT a long while back? That's been pretty accurate.

    And I replied that if so I thought ATR was heading to $1.50.

    I think if not for the sale agreement ATR might be trading at those levels today (where my buy order would be lurking!).

    The missed profit forecast raises the question of how much you can trust this management team with large amounts of cash.

  20. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    427

    Default

    I think that as this management created the wealth in the first place they could be trusted in the future.

    Clearasmud

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •