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Originally Posted by OneUp
TLA
From memory you picked somewhere around $14m NPAT a long while back? That's been pretty accurate.
And I replied that if so I thought ATR was heading to $1.50.
I think if not for the sale agreement ATR might be trading at those levels today (where my buy order would be lurking!).
The missed profit forecast raises the question of how much you can trust this management team with large amounts of cash.
Yeah, It looks like the second half was an improvement over the first half as from memory some writebacks contributed to 1st half profit. Next year should see a large improvement in profit for the business as the effects of the massive increase in inventories (zircon stockpiles bought from MAL and CNM at discounted prices) are felt, although in the short term this has led to a large cash outflow.
I haven't really looked at the accounts too closely as they are pretty much irrelevant regarding the future of the stock due to the sale (except to the extent of the EBITDA earnout portion of the purchase price).
Management should be able to succeed in starting a new business again, but that's too much risk for me. Maybe I'll have another look in a few years.
I still think the factors impacting the business are largely short term - a result of ATR not having/wanting access to cheap Indonesian zircon due to its supply agreements elsewhere. Also, because those supplies have resulted in the zircon sand market in China being oversupplied.
When I first invested in ATR I did not fully appreciate how much money ATR made from merely importing raw zircon sand, and distributing it. The profits in 2004 and 2005 largely resulted from ATR buying cheap zircon concentrates from The Gambia, processing them, and selling the sand into the Chinese market. The high margins of those years were the result of those cheaper imports than buying sand direct from the miner/processors.
The following years were a return to normal (no more cheap concentrates from The Gambian gold mine tailings dump), plus the impact of other Chinese companies following ATR's lead and getting their own cheap tailings dump zircon from Indonesia. As a result ATR's margins suffered more pressure.
I think with new supply agreements with MAL and CNM, ATR's Chinese businesses' margins should improve next year, and with organic growth in revenues should deliver better profits.
The supply agreements haven't really had the opportunity to take effect yet, but should be felt next year.
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Astron have a habit of waiting till the last day to post their financial results. This time it's 4 days overdue now... what's going on?... presumably the auditors are not happy about something.
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You're not kidding. It's a bit poor I think. What would happen if someone had desperately needed to sell their Astron shares in the last week to cover a purchase or something like that I wonder...
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Originally Posted by Damo79
You're not kidding. It's a bit poor I think. What would happen if someone had desperately needed to sell their Astron shares in the last week to cover a purchase or something like that I wonder...
one of the reasons i sold out of this potentially great company were management based and current situation repeatedly occurs time and time again.
If management are not up to it eventually the company will fail and while not pre-empting this ones fate the management are not working for the shareholders as they should be.
Bear
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.... at least they apologise the shareholders for the delay .... good stuff eh
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Well the final accounts are now 10 days overdue, meaning 10 days of suspended trading!!! Has anyone seen this happen before?
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Yes, it has happened before but usually for minnows that are reporting net losses. ATR are probably going to report profits so this is unusual. You can't really blame lack of time to audit. And rushing to complete this current result would be a negative. I feel for ATR holders but I wouldn't be suprise when ATR do report, their SP will not differentiate much either way.
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Remember they are receiving $3.80 a share for the non mining business.
Almost in the bag right?
Clearasmud
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They announce they are getting 3.80 a share for the non mining business. Then the next week they announce their profit is less than they had indicated it would be to the market (and to the buyer maybe!?). Now the auditor sees something fishy in the books, perhaps insider trading (which has happended before with this company), and the buyer has every reason to be allowed to pull out. (??)
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Wow, this is a delay. A rejection to buy their non-core business would be a price moving news. Since, there was one rejection to a purchase last week on a coy asset due to the increasing AUD (a small iron-ore coy I think), then this could be the same. Foreign currency issues could be the key.
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