NZSX50 Index

[Phaedrus]

Hi Jay. As you suspect, the Slow Stochastic that I use is just the ordinary formula, but simplified by 4 modifications :-
(1) %D moving average is not used as the trigger and is not plotted at all.
(2) A 50% crossover is used as the signal level, rather than the usual 20% and 80%.
(3) A much longer period is used for %K, in this case 80 days rather than the usual 5 days.
(4) Generally, smoothing (slowing) is not used.
These modifications mean that the oscillator can be used just like an ordinary trend-following indicator.
I got this idea from Colby and Meyers "Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators". They found that such a setup outperformed the original system as developed by George Lane.

[Phaedrus]

I would be more interested in knowing WHAT you still hold on the NZX P

I have only one holding of any significant size - FBU.
Plus a few TPW, FPH and POT.

[Placebo]

sorry, btw, wouldnt hold any rubbish on the NZX, although I have recommended SKLIZA as a buy at 25c recently. up the most % on nzx today

I, too, wouldn't hold any rubbish on the NZX. Hence, I only choose good NZX stocks

Thanks for the regular updates Phaedrus. I thought the saying was `a week is a long time in politics'*, it seems the same is true in the market.

*I like the full quote better, 2nd half is often cut off: "A week is a long time in politics, but 3 years is too long in office".

[duncan macgregor]

I have only one holding of any significant size - FBU.
Plus a few TPW, FPH and POT.

PHAEDRUS, TUT TUT you should have been out of that lot with the exception of POT. What you need my man is a time line or stick to the hundred day moving average. only having you on i wont mention it to SNOOPY. Its to wet to go fishing, might as well kick the teacher up the butt for a laugh. Macdunk

[Phaedrus]

Technically, FBU is still in a longterm uptrend, and is currently no weaker than it has been half a dozen or more times over the years. .......long-term holders of this stock have at times had to withstand drops of up to 25%, if they wished to continue holding. If this is more volatility than you are ready, willing or able to withstand, you have two alternatives. One is to get out of the sharemarket altogether. The other is to trade the stock. This would, of course, require a different set of indicators and a different mindset. The bottom line here being that if you are unable to beat "buying and holding" FBU, then you are wasting your time. ......TA got you into this stock over 6 years ago in early 2001 - and has kept you in ever since. It will continue to keep you in, so long as the uptrend continues.

Should be out of FBU, Dunc? You must be joking! I have held this superbly performing stock for nearly 7 years. Over that time, a $2 investment has grown to $12. Plus dividends, of course.

Should stick to a hundred day moving average, Dunc? What a laugh! Had I done so, I would currently be out of FBU, having had 37 trades since 1/1/2001. Of these, only 12 would have been profitable, with 25 losses. A $2 dollar investment in your recommended system would have grown to just $4.80. (Plus some divvies). As I said in the quote above if you are unable to beat "buying and holding" FBU, then you are wasting your time trying to trade it.

Your timeline would have had you out of FBU way back in 2001!

[duncan macgregor]

PHAEDRUS, Only having you on, we all make mistakes me included, its how we move on that counts. You know what i have been up to this year so no need to go into that. I am just surprized that you would hold a couple of your stocks when sell signals have been so obvious with your methods. FPH has been a disaster this year so far why you would hold?. I understand that FBU has been on a long uptrend, and why when it gives out sell signals in the shorter term you would disregard them But FPH?. Anyway its good to know nobody has perfected the system to pick winners all the time. JEEZE you might have to be like me with a MACDUNK got it wrong thread. Keep the charts coming you are the best at that. I blame SNOOPY myself he might even get you started averaging down if you are not carefull. MACDUNK

[Phaedrus]

"I am just surprized that you would hold a couple of your stocks when sell signals have been so obvious with your methods."
Nothing that I am holding has given a sell signal since I bought.


"I understand that FBU has been on a long uptrend, and why when it gives out sell signals in the shorter term you would disregard them..."
I don't disregard them. I act on them. I trade FBU as well as being a long-term holder.

"FPH has been a disaster this year so far - why you would hold?"
Because I have been a very, very bad boy and willfully ignored my system's current "prohibition" on buying. I impetuously threw all caution to the winds and bought a few FPH on the recent buy signals. Experience has taught me that such reckless behaviour is generally followed by regret. I don't know what came over me.

[duncan macgregor]

Its nice to know that i am not the only silly bugger that thinks he knows better than the tried and proved system. Still thats probabely why i married the wife when i was having such a great time. In hindesight somethings are for the best. How did your trading stack up with your buy and hold?. I find my trading leaves buy and hold for dead. Macdunk

[Placebo]

Marriage would be the classic buy-and-hold strategy. How long have you been married MacDunk? I am sure that there have been many `trading opportunities' along the way. And how come you never acted on those many `sell signals'?

[foodee]

Have never been attracted to FPH.
Here is a co with 1.5b cap, turning over 350m in 110 countries.
Must be expensive to run the show.
OK it has good products but high tech - and costly to keep abreast or ahead of competition.

Oops I am about to be 'shot'.

cheers