FBU Chart.

[Phaedrus]

This is a new FBU chart thread, just in case the other one never makes it across from the old forum. Here is the first post, update to follow.

Posted - 05/12/2003 : 10:00:15 AM Fletcher Building has been in an uptrend for years, has good fundamentals and a good yield, all of which makes it an excellent "buy and hold" candidate. In addition, its secondary trends are very tradeable. Technical analysis provides an excellent means of timing your entry into stocks such as this.
The chart below shows the longterm uptrend, with secondary "medium term" trendline-break trading signals marked with red and green arrows.
At the top of the chart are plots of 2 oscillators - the Relative Strength Index, using the MetaStock default period of 14 days, and the Williams'%R oscillator, using a period of 90 days instead of the default value of 14 days. This "detunes" the oscillator, makes it less sensitive and markedly reduces the number of Buy/Sell signals generated. Note how every one of the Buy signals generated by either of these oscillators marked an excellent entry point into this stock, as did the medium-term trendline break buy signals.
Notice how the most profitable buying opportunities occur when the signals from 2 or more of these 3 systems coincide.

[scamper]

well done, yet again. currently up 1.1%.
and judging by the 'read' for your post, it is the market talking, not readers of the guru on this forum.
scamper's home again, and freezing...

[Phaedrus]

This is simply an update of the first chart. The primary purpose here was to identify good entry points for those wanting to buy or add to their holdings. See how indicators that worked well for that purpose many years ago are still working well. Note that while FBU has now reached "OverSold" levels, there are no Buy signals yet. These are triggered when the oscillator(s) rise above the threshold, from below.
Charts like this help to put the current weakness into perspective. Bloodbath? Meltdown? Carnage? Blood on the floor? Nah - it's business as usual. Get a grip!

[Phaedrus]

This chart shows a wide assortment of long-term trend indicators. You can see from these that technically, FBU is still in a longterm uptrend, and is currently no weaker than it has been half a dozen or more times over the years. You can see, too, that long-term holders of this stock have at times had to withstand drops of up to 25%, if they wished to continue holding. If this is more volatility than you are ready, willing or able to withstand, you have two alternatives. One is to get out of the sharemarket altogether. The other is to trade the stock. This would, of course, require a different set of indicators and a different mindset. The bottom line here being that if you are unable to beat "buying and holding" FBU, then you are wasting your time.
People often claim that TA is only useful for trading and is quite unsuitable for the longer term. This chart gives the lie to that. TA got you into this stock over 6 years ago in early 2001 - and has kept you in ever since. It will continue to keep you in, so long as the uptrend continues.

[nissan]

Thanks Phaedrus for putting those charts on sharetrader also for your thoughts on the questions I asked you in my e-mail to you. I have decided to hold in the meantime It is a great company - that has not changed . It is just the world around it that has. With super funds looking for a place to invest in it must be high on the list for them. I am not buying - but waiting and watching with a bit of spare cash .Any ideas where to put it?

[Phaedrus]

In your pocket!

[Viking]

I like that, Phaedurs~ what better place to put your cash~

Though with little extra cash for saving~ I will be placing on this one~ perhaps in your next update, Master Phaedrus~

Though CEO J. Ling did gave clear statement about next year's profitability expect to be much lower than this year. But I do think with their expansion plan in place, this is bit like putting money in a mortgage to grow your net worth. Besides, FBU has always been quite conservative in their forecast, guess mr. Ling has inherit that from Mr. Walters~ :P

Be intrict to see how next week would be for FBU. Though I am also watching closely Re ASX.UGL I put these two in same categlory in my portfolio~ I do think UGL, like FBU, has the ability to ride out this stormy days~ but that is just my thought.

[Placebo]

fivestar; the answer is "maybe, but not much". Over the past few years there have been a number of FBU revenues, and many of them are long-termers with plenty of horizon time to see any weakness. For example, look around the skylines of any NZ city, plenty of construction going on. If Fletcher Construction isn't throwing the thing up itself, then its products are being well used in it.

Then there is infrastructure building -- roads and the like; prisons, you name it. Every time you see a building project announced, FBU's price should tick up that wee bit more.

So even if the housing market "collapses", things aren't altogether grim. Also, FBU's fortunes aren't necessarily driven by house prices; they are driven by building and renovating activity. Experience has shown that even when there is a retraction in building consents, renovation activity continues apace.

That's the NZ scene. Bear in mind FBU is now making 40% of its revenues offshore (mainly Australia) and is diversified into laminates, steel, concrete, building products.

This diversified approach has been the foundation of its resurgence. Perhaps they have been reading Mary Holm?

[Placebo]

5Star, yes it is much much more than a building company. They have been very clever. So if Johnny Renovator goes down to his local Placemakers and buys a house lot of Pink Batts; FBU wins on both counts. And if Johnny Renovator then asks Forman Insulation to instal them for him, Fletchers win again.

Fingers in every pie...

From memory figures from the last couple of Annual Reports indicated a full order book for the construction division and a sense that demand for their services were stretching their capacity. Any pullback will reduce that demand but it will have to be a fairly major retracement to reduce the Construction division's activity.

It was encouraging to see at the last results reporting that they are expecting the purchase of Formica to produce positive revenues in the next FY. There were worries that the size of the purchase and its sliding market position that it would be a stretch for FBU, so to hear them bullish about it was encouraging. IMO the directors and executives of FBU have credibility... but then I would say that, wouldn't i

[Viking]

Indeed, FBU is diversified enough not to be affected by one sector of the market along (e.g. Residential). Remember few years ago when the outlook for NZ residential market was very groomy. FBU counter the trend went upwards, because of the contracts they won in public sector and industrial sectors which sees them have work till 2008. I remember Ralph Walters did came out and made comment about that~ perhaps could find it on one of those Annual Report somewhere.

I think those were it $3 days~ or was it the $7 days~~ hahaha now its around the $12 day already see how things evolved.