FBU Chart.

[pierre]

That pesky no 6-- has been featuring again in the past hour! Sharks circling?

[ratkin]

Still in , System not given a sell signal yet, have this on long term settings , Have faith in this one otherwise would of gone out when trendline was broken

[winner69]

You in Chch ratkin. ......things are starting to move in the rebuild process I think ......FBU have headwinds but that is just the nature of competition .....they wil partake in a lot of activity over the next 10 years

[ratkin]

You in Chch ratkin. ......things are starting to move in the rebuild process I think ......FBU have headwinds but that is just the nature of competition .....they wil partake in a lot of activity over the next 10 years

Yep , most of the demolition is finished now , certainly plenty of activity now , but its still ramping up , there will be a few thousand more workers about when it really gets going , they only scratched the surface so far.
FBU look a no brainer tbh the dividends not too bad.
My core holding will not be sold anytime soon , but some of the play money may go in and out

[winner69]

Still in , System not given a sell signal yet, have this on long term settings , Have faith in this one otherwise would of gone out when trendline was broken

Al looking good again with FBU

[Hoop]

Double-top ... run like hell

It seems that way atm...Everything was going swimmingly until 11am Aust /1pm NZ/ 11am Japan...then the index tide went out big time (Japan the cause??)...
In real life when the tide suddenly goes out, you head for high ground...quickly!!!

[gonzo56]

Double-top ... run like hell

Not just yet, It would have to hit around 7.60 and then start to reverse, that would be a double top.

..the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between.

doubletop-g.png

[Hoop]

Not just yet, It would have to hit around 7.60 and then start to reverse, that would be a double top........

Note:.....FBU chart has not got a double top formation....yet!!!....It does not need to reach 7.60 again with the second peak just close enough (<5% will do) and FBU has done that with an intra-day high yesterday of $7.56

Hi Gonzo... Double tops come in slightly different shapes (Adams and Eves) but they all have to abide by specific identification guidelines to confirm the formation. Probably nitpicking here but your Gillette chart is a poor DT example as the trough between the two peaks is less distinct (although it still qualifies >10%) but the trough is longer than the ideal <2months...

Watching and commenting on a possible chart formation being created is a lot different than a formation already completed...During a possible forming whether it completes or it breaks down, it still gives the chartist a wealth of statistical information...
FBU atm is in the process of forming a double top...this forming process has a failure rate of 65%....ATM, If you are one of those people that say FBU will not fall below 6.92 then you have a 65% chance of being right.
If FBU does fall below 6.92 then the double top formation is completed and confirmed. DT formations are one of the most reliable of chart formations with an average decline of 18% ($6.23) and a 73% chance of reaching its target price (FBU TA price is 6.92 - ([7.60 - 6.92] x 0.73%) = $6.42*

* That 73% chance may be reduced as there is a support line at 6.65

[gonzo56]

Excellent post, thanks Hoop. Where did you get those figures though? i.e. a trough less than 2 months and failure rate of 65%...

[Hoop]

Excellent post, thanks Hoop. Where did you get those figures though? i.e. a trough less than 2 months and failure rate of 65%...

One of the chartist's must have books is Thomas N Bulkowsky's "Encyclopedia of Chart patterns 2nd Edition 2003. He has researched thousands of patterns and did statistical analysis on his findings...I think its still a textbook at many Universities overseas doing diplomas for TA

If you haven't got it ..Try Bulkowsky's The pattern site..This site has a basic run down on events and formation patterns + up to date other stuff........ click on 101 chart patterns.

EDIT....One of my personal guidelines nowadays (last 10 years) is to invest in stocks that have >70% chance of happening.... thats why I have reverted to being a TA chartist from that of a long term buy and hold FA investor......This way even with a few failures I eventually come out up overall because the odds are in my favour...