FBU Chart.

[winner69]

They say operating earnings up 12%-20% on last year (using the new way of reporting things)

Using the old way of doing things earnings are up 4% to 13%

Sneaky eh .... and the market fell it

Never mind growth is growth and even the upper end of their guidance is only the first guess so watch the number grow

KW - restructuring etc obviously less than last year .... changed the way they report such things

In future restructuring will be normal .... good eh

[winner69]

Looking way in advance of any sane fundimentals ...

what fundamentals you using belg

[Silverlight]

Sold 80% of my position today, I am not good at picking the actual tops but we have had an excellent run from 5.90, this is the best perfoming stock over the past 6 months.

I will consider increasing my position sub $8, if we get a medium term correction.

[winner69]

OMG $36 million turnover today ....and an up day as well

Must have been those really strong consent numbers .....20% plus increase ... Just the start of a big cyclical upturn in building activity in nz

That 14 bucks looking good

[Awamoa]

Me too Belgarion.
Buying at $6.50 and selling at $9.21 on Monday is just fine for me.
Like you I will wait to buy back in.

[Baddarcy]

Me too Belgarion.
Buying at $6.50 and selling at $9.21 on Monday is just fine for me.
Like you I will wait to buy back in.

Yup im in that boat too, in at 6.55 and out last week at 9.22. Was getting a bit jittery about the up coming result, expect it to be ok, but not good enough to sustain the price.

Am lurking awaiting a return to the $8 range, then i'll be back.

[winner69]

Speculation that the rebuild is going as planned. I think people are getting ahead of themselves and forgetting the US and OZ markets which FBU is exposed to. The uptrend is running out of steam and the fundamentals are all out of whack. The next report might come as a surprise to some...

Chch rebuild hasn't really started yet ... still fixing things like Percy's house up.

NZ building turning up from the bottom of the cycle ... like yesterdays consent numbers ..... all future sales for FBU

And even though the US economy retracted a bit last quarter building seems on the rise .... from yahoo finance ... Despite the looming cliff - which could have meant a sharp tax increase for all Americans - consumer spending climbed from the third quarter, as did business investment in equipment and software, and investment in housing.

up up and away

[winner69]

The source for the EQR work is here http://eqr.co.nz/

Remember this only for the insurance claims to fix things up .... nothing to rebuild the 15,000 odd homes or rebuild the CBD which hasn't really got under way.

So $1 billion is the figure so far .... 31,000 jobs finished out of 100,000 plus .... FBU only get a a management fee on that (plus the margin on any of their products used ... for this work mainly gib and plaster)

See percy - you are special .... 1 of 31,000 to get the fix up .... 70,000 still waiting

The full profit impact of Chch is not going to come through to FBU until 2014 and 2015 abd then many years to come .... so no doubt some people will be disappointed with the interim

Thats my fundamental analysis for today

[winner69]

That $193m was really $317m so the way guru analysts work eps last year was really about 49 cents. This year F13 earnings increase might be a bit slack but analysts have earnings in F14 ranging from 52cps to 74cps ($470M) - with a consensus of 63 cps so a forward looking PE is only 12-15. A bit higher than long time average for FBU.

With Chch only in the early stages of being being fixed and rebuilt (no real building done yet) and the upturn in a construction market in NZ that will see 50% increase in activity .... Aust looking a bit dodgy but not munyed ... fair degree of optimisim in the US .... and honky dory that $600m you mentioned is on the horizon ... and then the $14 my chart shpws will look cheap as well

Sometimes one needs to see the big picture ... and this picture is one of unprecendented activity for FBU .... with growth to a large degree supported by the existing resource base

PE is not really the 30 odd shown on some websites

[percy]

The source for the EQR work is here http://eqr.co.nz/

Remember this only for the insurance claims to fix things up .... nothing to rebuild the 15,000 odd homes or rebuild the CBD which hasn't really got under way.

So $1 billion is the figure so far .... 31,000 jobs finished out of 100,000 plus .... FBU only get a a management fee on that (plus the margin on any of their products used ... for this work mainly gib and plaster)

See percy - you are special .... 1 of 31,000 to get the fix up .... 70,000 still waiting

The full profit impact of Chch is not going to come through to FBU until 2014 and 2015 abd then many years to come .... so no doubt some people will be disappointed with the interim

Thats my fundamental analysis for today

They are fixing all the houses on "good" land first.So that is why our house was repaired before more needy.
My wife's cousin, who works in sheetmetal, told me that last year was queit and was the time to build a new house,or what ever.Every one was waiting for rebuild to start.Everyone was chasing work and operated on thin margins.Now the work is coming in thick and fast,everyone has plenty of work and if you want anything done you have to pay for it.
Although we were put out by only having a few days notice before work started on our house,the end result is an excellent job.
How profitable it will be for FBU ? FBU face stiff competition in every area,country and sector they operate in.
ps for winner69.I see great opportunities for a local bank to finance machinery,equipment and vehicles.Think HNZ.lol.