FBU Chart.

**Silverlight** · 18-02-2013, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by David B

Like you, belgarion, I was not a FBU believer, and thought (and still do) that the price has run up to far, too fast. But that is based on my assessment of the Christchurch rebuild. Christchurch is not El Dorado, but most NZer's seem to think that it is. But then, most of them thought that the Rugby World Cup was going to have us all rolling in riches as well.

But my medium term view on FBU has changed. Not based on Chch, my view on that has not changed, but solely on the outlook for the international building/construction markets that FBU operates in, particularly Aus and the US. Housing and construction look to be gaining momentum overseas and I expect that this will flow through to FBU. That combined with the increased work from Chch, well it all looks very promising for FBU in the coming years. And I do like the new CEO. Wasn't to keen on the previous one though, Ling.

For me the $64k question is, how much of the future is already built in to FBU price, and what is the upside potential from here going forward? I think a fair chunk of FBU's profit for next 18-24 month's is already priced in. But according to Hoop's charts, the potential still looks good. And if things continue to improve in construction there's more to the upside to come I think.

David, this is precisely the reason I have sold most of my position in FBU, while there might be a short term momentum play, FBU may have been flagged in NZ over the past 6 months as a beneficiary of the earthquake rebuilding activity, the main driver of its performance has been the rebound in the US construction sector.

This play has already happened, and your medium term view change maybe slightly behind the curve. The US stocks I track in this sector have already added 100% plus, if anything the US sector is ready to taper off, and or correct, this will be the catalyst to send FBU back to $8, before it goes above $10.

6 month returns below:
Pultegroup +300%
D.R. Horton +130%
Lennar +170%
Toll Brothers +150%
Home Depot +125%
Ryland +280%
Lowe's +100%
Meritage +180%

Its not unusual for $5 billion companies to double in 6 months, but Lowe's from $22b to $45b, and Home Depot from $45b to $100b, are phenomenal movements. I am very wary of this sector in the near term.

**Silverlight** · 18-02-2013, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by David B

Totally off topic, but I am always amazed at the US market and how already massive companies like those you have listed over can double their market cap in 6 months. Which is also why I'm trying to decided whether to buy any Manhattan Associates, as a play on the horse meat scandal in Europe. It's already had a fantastic run since 2011, can it do more? Well in the US market...........???

US small caps are pretty hard market to crack, very volatile and can triple or half before you understand why. Stock looks pretty toppy, but I know nothing about the company. What do they do that is better than SAP and Oracle?

**minimoke** · 20-02-2013, 09:32 AM

Fbu trader's should ignore Christchurch. The reality will be that construction materials will be bought off shore.steel will be shipped in by the boat load. Insulation is already being imported. Glass will come in pre made by the container load. Pipes well come from China.the city council bought all their sewer out fall pipes off shore and fbu saw none of that. Subies are not looked after and fbu hub management has to go back several times to redo one job. Christchurch will end up denting fbu not supporting it.

**Hoop** · 20-02-2013, 10:09 AM

I got tripped up with my previous post by being mixed up with operating profit/net profit and Winner corrected me in red ink

I feel a lot better today knowing even the powers of B can trip up too Quote REVISED ANNOUNCEMENT SHOULD READ OPERATING EARNINGS (NOT NET EARNINGS AS STATED) PAGE 12 UNDER OUTLOOK ............

I'm in good company it seems

Edit...falling back towards an entry buy in price?

**winner69** · 20-02-2013, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by Hoop

I got tripped up with my previous post by being mixed up with operating profit/net profit and Winner corrected me in red ink

I feel a lot better today knowing even the powers of B can trip up too Quote REVISED ANNOUNCEMENT SHOULD READ OPERATING EARNINGS (NOT NET EARNINGS AS STATED) PAGE 12 UNDER OUTLOOK ............

I'm in good company it seems

Edit...falling back towards an entry buy in price?

life be a lot easier if they did the old fashioned way eh ..... if you make a buck you say you made a buck ..... not a buck and half with the half some other stuff that is not operating stuff

ever since the world got clever with such stuff there has been a continual decline in standards ..... and one of the reasons while the financial world is really in tatters

**winner69** · 20-02-2013, 10:34 AM

so come on you prophets of doom and gloom .... will FBU fall to 8 bucks .... or just as far to make a handle on the cup

numbers as expected .... one thing for sure they will be making heaps more in 2 years time and then even 9 bucks will look cheap ..... and the 6 bucks from the middle of last year still a good entry

might lighten up a bit .... percy wants me to put in heartland

**winner69** · 20-02-2013, 10:39 AM

bugger moosie ...... so that means that the NZX50 wont be reaching record highs any time soon if FBU are going to drag it down

KJ · 20-02-2013, 10:46 AM

Moosie 900-I don't think that everyone got ahead of themselves-some may have.
Anyone following FBU would have known that the first half would be flat-the coy told us that a long time ago.