FBU Chart.

[Phaedrus]

To break the longterm uptrend, FBU would need to close below the $11.15 low of 17/8/07.

Sell signals would also be generated by price action dropping below the trendline, moving average or either of the trailing stops.

The indicators shown at the top of the chart will give Sell signals when they break below their green "signal" lines, apart from the DMI where you are looking for the green line (+DI) to cross below the red line (-DI).

A fall in the On Balance Volume would be bearish, especially if it was a steep drop (ie the price fell on very heavy volume).

[AMR]

Huge, huge volume today, almost $60m. Does anyone know what's up?

[Viking]

Get them while its cheap~
Get in quick! hahaha~ but seriously, this is a good company to hold~
and me holding too~

[Phaedrus]

For those wanting to buy into FBU, the use of a 90 day Williams's %R oscillator has invariably flagged excellent entry points into this stock. This indicator has only given a dozen or so signals over the last 7 years, but every one of them has been very timely.

The latest FBU price of $11.35 has pushed the W%R above its Oversold signal line, giving another Buy signal.

The short-term downtrend reversed right on the trendline and the moving average as it has done many times in the past.

[Viking]

Thank you Phaedrus, this is indeed fascinating stock~ almost feels like this is the stock can be use for the text book.

[scamper]

Goodness Gracious! what a huge difference a long-term chart makes!
I've never realised the degree of clarity that it makes.
Looking at the last 6-months and its indicators, i would not buy now: 30-and 60-day MAs and parabolic sar dropping, macd and rsi well in negative, mfi and roc trending down, obv dropping etc etc.

so, my lesson for today gratefully received thank you Phaedrus, is that these negatives are a periodic recurrence all within the long-term uptrend.
Is this a stock where you would be comfortable 'picking the bottom' for buys?

I notice that where there have been other double bottoms, the interval between them is much quieter (not a large recovery between them). is this difference significant?
cheers, scamper.

[Phaedrus]

Scamper, it is possible to get some idea as to the reliability of signals from any given indicator by looking at how accurate they have been in the past. You mention the MACD. Over the 7 years of this uptrend, this indicator has signalled 71 trades. Of these, only 22 were profitable and at times there were as many as 9 consecutive losses.

Over the same period, a 30 day EMA signalled 81 trades with only 24 being profitable. There were up to 10 consecutive losses.

A 60 day EMA signalled 53 trades with just 14 being profitable and up to 6 consecutive losses.

On the basis of these figures, none of the above are worth using on FBU, in my opinion.

You ask "Is this a stock where you would be comfortable 'picking the bottom' for buys?" Do you mean would I be happy to act on these W%R buy signals? Yes. In fact, this oscillator forms part of the "medium-term" trading systems that I run on FBU. I have not added to my "long-term" holding since 2001, but had I wanted to, I would have used a combination of trendlines, W%R and RSI to time such entries.

Re your double bottom question, Scamper, I think all you are looking at there is differing volatility. I would be loathe to ascribe any meaning to it.

[winner69]

Pessimists at Macquarie downgrade Fletchers ..... seems to be based on a not so cheery AGM

We'll have to see what happens but i feel Phaedrus's chart will still look the same in a few years time

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10476153

[beacon]

I second that winner

[Deev8]

Pessimists at Macquarie downgrade Fletchers ..... seems to be based on a not so cheery AGM

As far as I can recall Fletcher Building haven't presented a cheery outlook at an AGM over the past five years. Underpromising and overdelivering is simply a part of the Fletchers culture.