FBU Chart.

[Phaedrus]

Would it be worth starting to accumulate FBU on the basis that the bottom of the fall is approaching? ....... the fundamentals suggest so.

Arb, whatever the fundamentals, no-one knows how far this downtrend will run. Why buy a falling stock? Why not wait? There is no hurry - you fundamentalists are supposed to be patient types - right?

I will start a separate thread featuring a particularly poignant example of the folly of buying a downtrending stock.

[Arbitrage]

okay. I will revisit the share on 18 August at 3pm when the slope of your graph suggests they will hit Belgs target of $7.80. Interesting that the April valuation for FBU on ASB securities is $9.10

[Hoop]

My update from post #861 10th June 2011.

Quote:
Note that FBU has only risen about 12% from its breakout. From this statistics table you see that only 20% of the breakouts fail around that level so FBU has an 80% chance that it will bounce back up off its 8.55 support line.
The median rise (50% chance) is 32% up from breakout 8.55 + (8.55 x 0.32) = $11.28
The average rise with pullback included(slightly less than 50% chance) is 8.55 + (8.55 x 0.37) = $11.71

My first Dud investment with FBU since March 2009 and it was against the 80% odds.

My investment strategy was sound in that I sold out at the 9.20 to guard the capital gain against the pullback (throwback?)

I watched FBU throwback (I think pull back is the other way?)after my#861 post and entered at 8.67 while TA was still negative but hinted an upturn on 22 June when it respected the 8.50 (8.55) support area. I figured my Stop / loss at below the primary trendline back within the old trading range area ..it fell below the primary trendline of 8.39 yesterday. to close at 8.35..I watched it rise today to 8.40 but it failed so I bailed out at 8.34 for a small -3.9% loss.

FBU is now back in its trading range scenario 7.50 - 8.50 so maybe as Belg says its back to trading the highs and lows again in this range. I now wait for TA buy signs

[winner69]

WTF .... whatsup

The economy is on fire but FBU shareprice is tanking

The market must be stupid - they just don't get it

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Winner69 Maybe the economy is on fire that does not mean that FBU must be. IMO it has been poorly managed for years as it buy out the competition so it is like most monopolies highly inefficient. I would have to think very hard about buying FBU shares even at $7.00 per share

[Hoop]

Downtrend accelerated since then (7/7) ... Close today at $7.96 and below most (all?) brokers valuations. I suspect that many will have concluded that i-rates will be going up soon and killing the non-existent NZ building boom (but watch Oz which is likely to lower i-rates sooner rather than later to wake up the non-mining sectors).

Trackers. Any chance of a graph? What's OBV up too? Thanks.

Belg...we are back in that 19 month 7.50 - 8.50 trading range again where we made money...I feel a deja vu coming on...nice

[dumbass]

looking at big picture chart , ascending wedge formation which is quite a reliable bearish pattern.
there is often a good short off the retest of the lower border before heading lower.
trendline may be a bearish target

[Hoop]

Hmmm... Rising wedges quote Bulkowski are lousy performers and hence statistically unreliable.. but was this actually a rising (ascending) wedge before it ended its formation with the breakout (downwards)??

Bulkowski quote...... Rising wedges rarely last more than three months (just 21 patterns, or
3%, are longer than 3 months).

He did remark in his book that he was told of one that was a year old.

Oh well.. whatever it was it broke out downwards as it probably should have...eh . Hmmm an interesting find Dumbass...it got me googling pattern sites though the internet now.

[dumbass]

Hi hoop , they are not great patterns in predicting a break out but when an ascending wedge breaks to the downside then it becomes a very reliable pattern.
They work well on the currency markets especially when the lower trendline is tested for a change in polarity , providing a clearly defined risk with a stop just above the trendline.

Here some info on it
Trading Ascending Wedge Chart Patterns

When the price pierces the lower rising trend we have a break down. Higher volume is not necessary. In fact, if the move down is is accompanied by the lack of buyer volume, the price can fall with below average volume based just on what the sellers are creating.

The most success using the rising wedge pattern comes when you wait for the break down through the lower rising trend. According to Bulkowski's research the break down only experiences a 6 percent failure rate, which is excellent.

Investors should look to buy on the initial break. However, you can also wait for the re-test as another re-entry point. Unfortunately, the re-test does not always take place, so you cannot count on it.

The measure rule for rising wedges is easy to determine. It is the lowest point in the formation. For the chart above the measure rule gives you a target on the NASDAQ of the 1,725 area. Not all ascending wedges achieve this target, so it is important to use trailing stops to protect your gains.

It is good trading discipline to be ready to take profits quickly when you are short. In addition, many investors sell half of their position after achieving half of the move to capture profit, which frees the money to use on other opportunities. The remaining half is covered by a trailing stop that is below the breakout, allowing them to capture any further move down.

[Hoop]

thxs for that dumbass