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  1. #441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Kiora..
    I googled The 3 Stooges.. they started at the beginning of the Roaring 20's (secular bull)...I was amazed they entertained us for 48 years!! (1922 - 1970)..must had been Mo's Bowl haircut..eh .
    The Beatles likewise beginning early 60's (secular bull)...
    The Mullet became famous with David Bowie, Rod Stewart in the early 70's (secular bear).. I'll say no more.
    You'right Hoop,mullet is still in so definitely secular bear
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/401...goodhue-faster

    AND whats more he is a Taniwha. Taniwhas are always right
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiwISjvX3mM


  2. #442
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    Blackrock at it again
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-w...70000680.htmlt
    If IFT drops again like it did will it get a new bankster?
    Hopefully not.Tightly held & managed?
    https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/.../shareholdings
    133
    Twenty largest shareholders
    as at 31 March 2020
    Citibank Nominees (NZ) Ltd 43,571,042
    Accident Compensation Corporation 39,075,418
    Tea Custodians Limited 38,905,639
    JPMORGAN Chase Bank 36,236,013
    HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 35,536,795
    Forsyth Barr Custodians Limited 28,149,999
    HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 27,185,751
    FNZ Custodians Limited 26,980,840
    New Zealand Permanent Trustees Limited 18,105,636
    JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 15,984,268
    Cogent Nominees Limited 14,493,930
    National Nominees New Zealand Limited 13,193,541
    Robert William Bentley Morrison & Andrew Stewart
    & Anthony Howard 11,748,820
    BNP Paribas Nominees NZ Limited 11,386,872
    New Zealand Depository Nominee 8,630,299
    New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees
    Limited 8,480,666
    Premier Nominees Limited 8,220,701
    Custodial Services Limited 6,315,800
    Custodial Services Limited 6,095,255
    Investment Custodial Services Limited 4,170,845
    Spread of shareholders
    as at 31 March 2020
    Number
    of shares*659,678,837
    Number
    of holders
    Total
    shares held %
    1-1,000 2,729 1,428,934 0.2
    1,001-5,000 7,118 19,597,364 3.0
    5,001-10,000 3,636 26,272,067 4.0
    10,001-50,000 4,225 85,597,118 12.9
    50,001-100,000 413 28,426,700 4.3
    100,001 and
    Over 239 498,356,654 75.6
    Total 18,359 659,678,837 100.0
    * 303 shareholders hold less than a marketable parcel of Infratil shares
    Twenty largest infrastructure bondholders
    as at 31 March 2020
    JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 173,096,913
    Forsyth Barr Custodians 161,145,338
    FNZ Custodians Limited 110,687,978
    New Zealand Central Securities 52,633,625
    Investment Custodial Services 38,501,105
    Custodial Services Limited 38,158,333
    Custodial Services Limited 38,003,016
    Custodial Services Limited 29,149,818
    Lynette Therese Erceg & Darryl Edward Gregory
    & Catherine Agnes Quinn 24,120,000
    Custodial Services Limited 14,496,990
    Forsyth Barr Custodians 9,413,000
    Custodial Services Limited 7,026,500
    Rgtkmt Investments Limited 6,250,000
    Custodial Services Limited 5,289,000
    FNZ Custodians Limited 5,196,500
    Sterling Holdings Limited 5,130,000
    Tappenden Holdings Limited 3,770,000
    FNZ Custodians Limited 2,767,930
    JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 2,630,000
    Garth Barfoot 2,500,000
    Spread of infrastructure bondholders
    as at 31 March 2020
    Number
    of Bonds
    Number
    of holders
    Total
    bonds held %
    1-1,000 5 4,373 -
    1,001-5,000 1,266 6,292,194 0.5
    5,001-10,000 3,363 32,342,784 2.5
    10,001-50,000 8,636 245,452,601 18.8
    50,001-100,000 1,406 115,220,657 8.8
    100,001 and
    Over 810 904,506,916 69.4
    Total 15,486 1,303,819,525 100.0
    Last edited by kiora; 02-06-2020 at 06:00 AM.

  3. #443
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Blackrock at it again
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-w...70000680.htmlt
    If IFT drops again like it did will it get a new bankster?
    Hopefully not.Tightly held & managed?
    https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/.../shareholdings
    133

    ...
    wrong thread?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #444
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    Right thread for investment strategies

  5. #445
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Right thread for investment strategies
    Wrong thread

  6. #446
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    Kiora have a look here ..This weeks' John Mauldin Thoughts from the Front Line just about summarizes what this Investment Strategies and Secular Bear Markets Thread is all about. As you read this article remember that the current Wall St Market is in a Secular Bear Market Cycle and has been since the year 2000..Yes this secular bear is 20 years old..

    John Mauldin's article shows the possible risks of investing for the long term from now on using the Secular models (charts). His quote (ambiguously mentioned within his Tech sector paragraph) "...At the very least, now looks like a terrible time to buy stocks if your intent is to hold them a long time...."
    Another Mauldin's quote which Winner 69 has been mentioning on ST for a while now...
    ".. The current level of P/E is very high, which portends a decade that will likely deliver low compounded returns...."

    Enjoy the read


    I have a feeling Crestmont Research updates yesterday prompted John Mauldin to publish this article..From past commentaries it seems to me John has high regard for Ed Easterling's work.

    This Investing strategies and Secular Bear Markets thread revolves around much of Ed Easterlings work.
    Last edited by Hoop; 26-07-2020 at 10:40 AM.

  7. #447
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    Seriously!!! ..We have been in a Secular Bear Market for 20 years !!!!..Look around we have been in a Bull Market these last 10 years !!!
    Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles

  8. #448
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Seriously!!! ..We have been in a Secular Bear Market for 20 years !!!!..Look around we have been in a Bull Market these last 10 years !!!
    Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
    Thanks Hoops, so all schools of thought agree that we are, and have been in a secular bear market due to the high P/E, well above the historical average, and not the bull market which I thought we were in. An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality...

    Do you think that the more the P/E increases above it's historical av, the more likely that stocks are becoming seriously overvalued, and may need a sharp correction, or is a high P/E the new normal?

  9. #449
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    Quote Originally Posted by bullfrog View Post
    Thanks Hoops, so all schools of thought agree that we are, and have been in a secular bear market due to the high P/E, well above the historical average, and not the bull market which I thought we were in. An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality...

    Do you think that the more the P/E increases above it's historical av, the more likely that stocks are becoming seriously overvalued, and may need a sharp correction, or is a high P/E the new normal?
    ".... An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality..."
    No No not at all, its very much connected to reality. PE Ratio values are determined by investor behaviour. Reality dictates the cycles and the trends record the changes.

    Us Investors are focused on Cyclical cycle investing, so our investment brains are conditioned to cyclical cycle investing.We (de)invest accordingly often dismissing Stockmarket Theory to the stuffy Academics..

    Secular Cycle doesn't have events, it has periods....Our Investor brains are not conditioned to Secular cycle investing..Secular market cycles are driven by annualised PE(10) trends (inflation adjusted). Secular cycles relate much better with Stock Market Theory... PE is governed by investor behaviour so with secular cycles the behavior could be generational. Remember your grandparents telling you it pays to save before you buy something so not to have debt...Nowadays anyone will tell you it pays to borrow to buy something,,In a decade or two it will pay to save before you buy again...This is an example of a Behavioural Secular Cycle..
    The Stock Market Secular cycle is similar behaviour..A Secular Bear sees increasing conservative investing behaviour and investors wanting less risk and more bang for their buck..This sees a slow down trending of the Annualised PE(10) Ratio.
    A Secular Bull cycle sees a slow generational change from low risk conservation to increasing speculative risk taking liberal attitudes and an upward trend of annualised PE Ratio values..

    Yes we have seen rising PE Ratio values for a number of years now but on a secular level the overall annualised PE value is down trending starting PE(10) of 47 from the huge 2000 Dot-Com bubble to the now PE(10) of 30 (Secular Bear Cycle)...
    Last edited by Hoop; 26-07-2020 at 08:48 PM.

  10. #450
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    ".... An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality..."
    No No not at all, its very much connected to reality. PE Ratio values are determined by investor behaviour. Reality dictates the cycles and the trends record the changes.

    Us Investors are focused on Cyclical cycle investing, so our investment brains are conditioned to cyclical cycle investing.We (de)invest accordingly often dismissing Stockmarket Theory to the stuffy Academics..

    Secular Cycle doesn't have events, it has periods....Our Investor brains are not conditioned to Secular cycle investing..Secular market cycles are driven by annualised PE(10) trends (inflation adjusted). Secular cycles relate much better with Stock Market Theory... PE is governed by investor behaviour so with secular cycles the behavior could be generational. Remember your grandparents telling you it pays to save before you buy something so not to have debt...Nowadays anyone will tell you it pays to borrow to buy something,,In a decade or two it will pay to save before you buy again...This is an example of a Behavioural Secular Cycle..
    The Stock Market Secular cycle is similar behaviour..A Secular Bear sees increasing conservative investing behaviour and investors wanting less risk and more bang for their buck..This sees a slow down trending of the Annualised PE(10) Ratio.
    A Secular Bull cycle sees a slow generational change from low risk conservation to increasing speculative risk taking liberal attitudes and an upward trend of annualised PE Ratio values..

    Yes we have seen rising PE Ratio values for a number of years now but on a secular level the overall annualised PE value is down trending starting PE(10) of 47 from the huge 2000 Dot-Com bubble to the now PE(10) of 30 (Secular Bear Cycle)...
    Well explained Hoops

    Secular cycles are indeed a fascinating subject
    Last edited by winner69; 27-07-2020 at 04:47 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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