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  1. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    This one is unprecedented though so those figs may be meaningless and the drop has been so swift, im reading the velocity has been -37% (fall per month)so far , the 87 crash velocity was -16% the GFC -4 %. I guess the recovery when it comes(who knows) may be similarly paced to the upside.
    This crash may affect the averages for the crashes. it is also a sort of deliberate crash as government's have exacerbated it by forcing close downs.

    I think the OECD had initially forecast a V recession although now they anticipate it may be more of a typical U recession. That may effect the time taken for a stock recovery.

    Disc: I have doubled my KiwiSaver voluntary contributions. I am considering a switch back from Conservative to Growth.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 25-03-2020 at 08:38 AM.

  2. #412
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    With the sheer quantity of stimulus globally this could be a great reflation already. Wish I knew.

  3. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    With the sheer quantity of stimulus globally this could be a great reflation already. Wish I knew.
    Expect equity prices to steeply go up after the volatility has settled in some weeks or months. So, yes - high inflation ahead for property and stocks. The seed for the next bull run has been planted. Lets hope it will have a long life and does not die early of some congenital conditions (like too much private and public debt, for starters).
    ----
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  4. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
    Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.

    OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.
    Warren Buffet studied under Benjamin Graham so i'm quite certain Buffet is NOW putting his cash into working order. Tell me who in the investment community has the patience to sit on 75% - 25% cash for years and years and years?

    Unfortunately... your Kiwi Saver funds don't. These managed funds would look like a fool if they held all the incoming cash flow contributions to accumulate so instead, these funds put the onus on the investor by presenting something like 3 options and MAKE THE INVESTOR CHOOSE when to move between conservative to aggressive growth. That way they can't be put to blame if the managed funds underperform or make a mistake. Yet they can charge the nice management fee as what Warren Buffet says, "for literally breathing air".

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  6. #416
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    Saamee you are the only recent poster that comes close to being on topic on this thread (Zero hedge article)...Folks this is the Investment strategies and Secular bear markets thread..Discussion should relate to the secular topics..A secular bear cycle is not the same as a cyclical bear market cycle...

    At the moment we are experiencing another cyclical bear market cycle within the present secular Bear Market cycle.

    A secular cycle is measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear)..The recent sudden reversion to the Bear Cycle is a cyclical cycle reversion which is measured by the stock Exchange index falling more than 20%..

    Wall St has been in a Secular Bear Market cycle since year 2000 ..yes, this current secular bear cycle is 20 years old,

    Secular Bears are not feared as the economic growth rate between Secular Bull and Bear cycles are similar but investor behaviour is different..Investors demand "more bang for their buck" during a secular Bear Market causing the stockmarket index growth to be slower than Company growth averaged over the long term..

    Basic strategies change with secular cycles..for example did you ever wonder why Life Insurance Salesmen which were prolific during the 1950 1960's went out of favour in the 1970's, the reversion to a secular bear had a lot to do with it...Same thing with superannuation funds over an individuals 40 year working life..The lucky workers that have 2 secular Bull market cycles and one secular bear market cycle during their 40 year working life received a better superannuation than a worker that had 2 secular bear Market cycles and only one Secular Bull Market Cycle
    Investors studying Secular Cycles can more accurately predict a future outcome, such as a long period of poor capital growth compensated by higher yield rates during secular bear cycles ..and..long periods of good capital growth with poor yield rates during secular bull market cycles..

    Now for the seemingly paradoxical scenario to the investor with no knowledge of what a secular market is....When a secular cycle nears it's end it is the Cyclical Bear that kills off a Secular Bear and a Cyclical Bull that kills off a Secular Bull.

    It would be nice if this thread discusses the effect this Cyclical Bear has on this Secular Bear and whether the long term investing strategies should remain the same...
    Last edited by Hoop; 27-03-2020 at 09:36 PM.

  7. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Saamee you are the only recent poster that comes close to being on topic on this thread (Zero hedge article)...Folks this is the Investment strategies and Secular bear markets thread..Discussion should relate to the secular topics..A secular bear cycle is not the same as a cyclical bear market cycle...

    At the moment we are experiencing another cyclical bear market cycle within the present secular Bear Market cycle.

    A secular cycle is measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear)..The recent sudden reversion to the Bear Cycle is a cyclical cycle reversion which is measured by the stock Exchange index falling more than 20%..

    Wall St has been in a Secular Bear Market cycle since year 2000 ..yes, this current secular bear cycle is 20 years old,

    Secular Bears are not feared as the economic growth rate between Secular Bull and Bear cycles are similar but investor behaviour is different..Investors demand "more bang for their buck" during a secular Bear Market causing the stockmarket index growth to be slower than Company growth averaged over the long term..

    Basic strategies change with secular cycles..for example did you ever wonder why Life Insurance Salesmen which were prolific during the 1950 1960's went out of favour in the 1970's, the reversion to a secular bear had a lot to do with it...Same thing with superannuation funds over an individuals 40 year working life..The lucky workers that have 2 secular Bull market cycles and one secular bear market cycle during their 40 year working life received a better superannuation than a worker that had 2 secular bear Market cycles and only one Secular Bull Market Cycle
    Investors studying Secular Cycles can more accurately predict a future outcome, such as a long period of poor capital growth compensated by higher yield rates during secular bear cycles ..and..long periods of good capital growth with poor yield rates during secular bull market cycles..

    Now for the seemingly paradoxical scenario to the investor with no knowledge of what a secular market is....When a secular cycle nears it's end it is the Cyclical Bear that kills off a Secular Bear and a Cyclical Bull that kills off a Secular Bull.

    It would be nice if this thread discusses the effect this Cyclical Bear has on this Secular Bear and whether the long term investing strategies should remain the same...
    Secular Bear? Cyclical Bull? Not buying that logic for a moment of breath. Let me show you a chart:



    You say 20 years of bear market? Looking at the graph that level is around 12,000 for the DOW. Roughly we're around 21,000 (+/- 2000 on any given day). If you started investing in 2008, you would be still sitting with considerable gains (roughly x 3 times at today's valuation). You can frame your results by cherry picking any time on the chart. But to claim you can time markets based on when they're in a bullish or a bearish run is hog wash. No one with a degree of certainty can time when the stock market can crash. You'll get lucky ones but they have no ability than to make predictions like throw darts on the board.

    We should be clear that this global crisis has been caused by man (just as Buffet always speaks about in stock market crashes, a product of human misbehaviour).

    Wise investing strategy? Just buy on the dips and forget about in 10 or 20 years time.

  8. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    Secular Bear? Cyclical Bull? Not buying that logic for a moment of breath. Let me show you a chart:



    You say 20 years of bear market? Looking at the graph that level is around 12,000 for the DOW. Roughly we're around 21,000 (+/- 2000 on any given day). If you started investing in 2008, you would be still sitting with considerable gains (roughly x 3 times at today's valuation). You can frame your results by cherry picking any time on the chart. But to claim you can time markets based on when they're in a bullish or a bearish run is hog wash. No one with a degree of certainty can time when the stock market can crash. You'll get lucky ones but they have no ability than to make predictions like throw darts on the board.

    We should be clear that this global crisis has been caused by man (just as Buffet always speaks about in stock market crashes, a product of human misbehaviour).

    Wise investing strategy? Just buy on the dips and forget about in 10 or 20 years time.
    SBQ - both you and Hoop are right but you are talking about completely different things.

    Hoops was discussing a secular cycle as measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear).. secular stock market cycles are valuationcycles.


    you are talking just about bull/bear cycles ....price cycles

    Secular cycles are an interesting study ...but SBQ traders such as yourself are better off not even trying to understand them.
    Last edited by winner69; 29-03-2020 at 02:59 PM.
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  9. #419
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    SBQ

    Good chart that shows why both you ard Hoop are right

    You were commenting on the top part ... price action

    Hoop was commenting on the bottom part ...the trend in the PE ratio

    Note how the PE ratio is still trending down from its 2000 high ...meaning still in SECULAR BEAR MARKET

    That implies that long term expected returns (on US markets) from here are very low
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 29-03-2020 at 03:13 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #420
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    There are indications that NZ will get through the level 4 in around a month with different areas being opened up at different times
    Auckland slower to free up
    Regions faster which should benefit our exports to pay for it all
    Less imports so trade balance shouldn't look too bad
    Thank goodness China is getting going again relatively quickly,this should benefit NZ exports

    With our exchange rate lower than 2 months ago will we see an influx/flood of money looking for relatively safe investments in NZ?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/op...ey-coming-from
    Last edited by kiora; 30-03-2020 at 10:33 AM.

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