Investing strategies and secular bear markets

[dobby41]

No major crisis has finished within a month though, so I am still waiting for a bottom. Looks like we might have hit bottom yesterday.

Two competing statements right there.

[Joshuatree]

Snippet from Craigs , thankyou.

10 US recessions since 1960.
Number of months from peak to trough average, 14
Number of months to recover from previous peak 39
Returns from bottom
1 month 12.2%
6 month 29.4%
12 month 39.1%

[Aaron]

Two competing statements right there.

I'm still waiting for a bottom but I am watching some 10% jumps in prices today so wonder if yesterday was the bottom. I need to go away and calculate value rather than watch prices.

Thanks JT if I take the average 14months then I have twelve left before the bottom. Are we really not going to have ANY businesses fail due to Covid-19?

[Valuegrowth]

Black Peter said.
This is the time to buy solid and well established companies making stuff (or providing services) people need.

In a 12 month horizon, they could give quite a good return for patient investors. In a situation like this we can postpone lot of things but we can’t postpone day to day things that we need. Globally, strong Demand for these types of stocks began from last week. Some of them have rebounded by 30% now.

[peat]

Too right. Some shares are at a nearly 50% discount to recent values. No major crisis has finished within a month though, so I am still waiting for a bottom. Looks like we might have hit bottom yesterday. I should take Blackpeters advice and get serious about some limited buying of some shares but I am mindful of Phaedrus's advice on using TA to time an entry. Prices are all over the show and maybe QE infinity has stopped the drop but if Covid-19 has pricked the debt bubble then there could be worse to come. The moves in the sharemarkets are historic (c.f. 1929 and 1987) so surely not all over before the end of April, although it feels like it today.

Don't worry there will be a bell ring and then we can all safely pile in again.

[peat]

While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.

OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.

[Joshuatree]

I'm still waiting for a bottom but I am watching some 10% jumps in prices today so wonder if yesterday was the bottom. I need to go away and calculate value rather than watch prices.

Thanks JT if I take the average 14months then I have twelve left before the bottom. Are we really not going to have ANY businesses fail due to Covid-19?

This one is unprecedented though so those figs may be meaningless and the drop has been so swift, im reading the velocity has been -37% (fall per month)so far , the 87 crash velocity was -16% the GFC -4 %. I guess the recovery when it comes(who knows) may be similarly paced to the upside.

[Saamee]

I'm still waiting for a bottom but I am watching some 10% jumps in prices today so wonder if yesterday was the bottom. I need to go away and calculate value rather than watch prices.

Thanks JT if I take the average 14months then I have twelve left before the bottom. Are we really not going to have ANY businesses fail due to Covid-19?

Beware of the Bear Market Rally....


A very good read >> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/on...r-market-rally

[Aaron]

While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.

OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.

If you could ring the bell for me that would be great. So far it has been historically big with central bank responses historically big but this has been the cycle since 1987.I am not saying this crisis will be like all the others but this article had an interesting chart at the bottom.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/on...r-market-rally

Unsure if that is useful or not. looking at it, if it is a process then there could still be a way to go for the US and therefore possibly the NZX. Big rallies overnight so the bottom might already be in, I don't know. Not a trader, I kept my Mercury, Sanford, Spark and MMH shares on the NZX as I have currency trust issues and don't really know what is going to happen so diversity helps me sleep. Also for my small portfolio I would be described as overweight Aussie gold producers. I s**t my pants a few days ago with them but hung tough although I did not buy any more (sadly) as my gut was telling me to. It looks like gold is really catching a bid.(the financial market equivalent of toilet paper, don't want to be caught without any) It has been easy holding as prices have fallen from a great height but as the arrows on my portfolio go from green to red I imagine it will get tougher. ideally I want to be a lucky investor and to build a portfolio that will help me in retirement (if I get there)
My biggest problem is laziness. I don't enjoy reading company annual reports and then trying to figure out the business and whether they have too much debt etc etc so I will be relying on dumb luck mostly.
Thanks for the chart Saamee

[BlackPeter]

Don't worry there will be a bell ring and then we can all safely pile in again.

Classic ...