Quote Originally Posted by Heavy Metal View Post
In claiming we're still in a bear market you use a very convenient time frame to make that assumption. Using the same analogy gold has been in a secular bear market for the past 27 years - price still lower than in 1980, more down years than up.

.

I would contend the secular bear market in gold you mention ended in mid 1999 ...... during that period gold went from $850 to $250

Since then I would say in the early stages of a secular bull market ..... rising from that $250 to you never know ..... one of the characteristics of a secular bull market being that the bull market periods have greater gains than the bear market periods (like the years you mentioned)

Anyway as with aspects of technical analysis (as this is what this) everything is open to interpretation. Like some might also say that that the secular bull market in US stocks that most say ended in 2000 is actually still in existence becuase new highs are being reached

What you have pointed out about gold confirms what Mick pointed out - stocks and commodities always seem to go their opposite ways


By the way your other point that closing positions can be difficult is true .... and this does to a certain extent eliminate many stocks as a possible trade if I keep the number of stocks held down to a preferred number of 5 with a max of 10 ..... even the biggest exposure I have had in this respect is that I managed to move a sizable parcel of TRS a few weeks ago without too much difficulty (prob sold a few of shares to Fisher funds over the years)