sharetrader
Page 28 of 28 FirstFirst ... 182425262728
Results 406 to 420 of 420
  1. #406
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,032

    Default

    While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
    Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.

    OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.
    Last edited by peat; 24-03-2020 at 09:49 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #407
    Update Ready To Install
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    8,431

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I'm still waiting for a bottom but I am watching some 10% jumps in prices today so wonder if yesterday was the bottom. I need to go away and calculate value rather than watch prices.

    Thanks JT if I take the average 14months then I have twelve left before the bottom. Are we really not going to have ANY businesses fail due to Covid-19?
    This one is unprecedented though so those figs may be meaningless and the drop has been so swift, im reading the velocity has been -37% (fall per month)so far , the 87 crash velocity was -16% the GFC -4 %. I guess the recovery when it comes(who knows) may be similarly paced to the upside.

  3. #408
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Norf Eyelynd
    Posts
    739

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I'm still waiting for a bottom but I am watching some 10% jumps in prices today so wonder if yesterday was the bottom. I need to go away and calculate value rather than watch prices.

    Thanks JT if I take the average 14months then I have twelve left before the bottom. Are we really not going to have ANY businesses fail due to Covid-19?

    Beware of the Bear Market Rally....


    A very good read >> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/on...r-market-rally

  4. #409
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    1,062

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
    Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.

    OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.
    If you could ring the bell for me that would be great. So far it has been historically big with central bank responses historically big but this has been the cycle since 1987.I am not saying this crisis will be like all the others but this article had an interesting chart at the bottom.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/on...r-market-rally

    Unsure if that is useful or not. looking at it, if it is a process then there could still be a way to go for the US and therefore possibly the NZX. Big rallies overnight so the bottom might already be in, I don't know. Not a trader, I kept my Mercury, Sanford, Spark and MMH shares on the NZX as I have currency trust issues and don't really know what is going to happen so diversity helps me sleep. Also for my small portfolio I would be described as overweight Aussie gold producers. I s**t my pants a few days ago with them but hung tough although I did not buy any more (sadly) as my gut was telling me to. It looks like gold is really catching a bid.(the financial market equivalent of toilet paper, don't want to be caught without any) It has been easy holding as prices have fallen from a great height but as the arrows on my portfolio go from green to red I imagine it will get tougher. ideally I want to be a lucky investor and to build a portfolio that will help me in retirement (if I get there)
    My biggest problem is laziness. I don't enjoy reading company annual reports and then trying to figure out the business and whether they have too much debt etc etc so I will be relying on dumb luck mostly.
    Thanks for the chart Saamee
    Last edited by Aaron; 25-03-2020 at 07:24 AM. Reason: grammar

  5. #410
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    5,835

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Don't worry there will be a bell ring and then we can all safely pile in again.
    Classic ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #411
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    2,133

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    This one is unprecedented though so those figs may be meaningless and the drop has been so swift, im reading the velocity has been -37% (fall per month)so far , the 87 crash velocity was -16% the GFC -4 %. I guess the recovery when it comes(who knows) may be similarly paced to the upside.
    This crash may affect the averages for the crashes. it is also a sort of deliberate crash as government's have exacerbated it by forcing close downs.

    I think the OECD had initially forecast a V recession although now they anticipate it may be more of a typical U recession. That may effect the time taken for a stock recovery.

    Disc: I have doubled my KiwiSaver voluntary contributions. I am considering a switch back from Conservative to Growth.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 25-03-2020 at 08:38 AM.

  7. #412
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    1,062

    Default

    With the sheer quantity of stimulus globally this could be a great reflation already. Wish I knew.

  8. #413
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    5,835

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    With the sheer quantity of stimulus globally this could be a great reflation already. Wish I knew.
    Expect equity prices to steeply go up after the volatility has settled in some weeks or months. So, yes - high inflation ahead for property and stocks. The seed for the next bull run has been planted. Lets hope it will have a long life and does not die early of some congenital conditions (like too much private and public debt, for starters).
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #414
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    302

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
    Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.

    OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.
    Warren Buffet studied under Benjamin Graham so i'm quite certain Buffet is NOW putting his cash into working order. Tell me who in the investment community has the patience to sit on 75% - 25% cash for years and years and years?

    Unfortunately... your Kiwi Saver funds don't. These managed funds would look like a fool if they held all the incoming cash flow contributions to accumulate so instead, these funds put the onus on the investor by presenting something like 3 options and MAKE THE INVESTOR CHOOSE when to move between conservative to aggressive growth. That way they can't be put to blame if the managed funds underperform or make a mistake. Yet they can charge the nice management fee as what Warren Buffet says, "for literally breathing air".

  10. #415
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,291

  11. #416
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,127

    Default

    Saamee you are the only recent poster that comes close to being on topic on this thread (Zero hedge article)...Folks this is the Investment strategies and Secular bear markets thread..Discussion should relate to the secular topics..A secular bear cycle is not the same as a cyclical bear market cycle...

    At the moment we are experiencing another cyclical bear market cycle within the present secular Bear Market cycle.

    A secular cycle is measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear)..The recent sudden reversion to the Bear Cycle is a cyclical cycle reversion which is measured by the stock Exchange index falling more than 20%..

    Wall St has been in a Secular Bear Market cycle since year 2000 ..yes, this current secular bear cycle is 20 years old,

    Secular Bears are not feared as the economic growth rate between Secular Bull and Bear cycles are similar but investor behaviour is different..Investors demand "more bang for their buck" during a secular Bear Market causing the stockmarket index growth to be slower than Company growth averaged over the long term..

    Basic strategies change with secular cycles..for example did you ever wonder why Life Insurance Salesmen which were prolific during the 1950 1960's went out of favour in the 1970's, the reversion to a secular bear had a lot to do with it...Same thing with superannuation funds over an individuals 40 year working life..The lucky workers that have 2 secular Bull market cycles and one secular bear market cycle during their 40 year working life received a better superannuation than a worker that had 2 secular bear Market cycles and only one Secular Bull Market Cycle
    Investors studying Secular Cycles can more accurately predict a future outcome, such as a long period of poor capital growth compensated by higher yield rates during secular bear cycles ..and..long periods of good capital growth with poor yield rates during secular bull market cycles..

    Now for the seemingly paradoxical scenario to the investor with no knowledge of what a secular market is....When a secular cycle nears it's end it is the Cyclical Bear that kills off a Secular Bear and a Cyclical Bull that kills off a Secular Bull.

    It would be nice if this thread discusses the effect this Cyclical Bear has on this Secular Bear and whether the long term investing strategies should remain the same...
    Last edited by Hoop; 27-03-2020 at 09:36 PM.

  12. #417
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    302

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Saamee you are the only recent poster that comes close to being on topic on this thread (Zero hedge article)...Folks this is the Investment strategies and Secular bear markets thread..Discussion should relate to the secular topics..A secular bear cycle is not the same as a cyclical bear market cycle...

    At the moment we are experiencing another cyclical bear market cycle within the present secular Bear Market cycle.

    A secular cycle is measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear)..The recent sudden reversion to the Bear Cycle is a cyclical cycle reversion which is measured by the stock Exchange index falling more than 20%..

    Wall St has been in a Secular Bear Market cycle since year 2000 ..yes, this current secular bear cycle is 20 years old,

    Secular Bears are not feared as the economic growth rate between Secular Bull and Bear cycles are similar but investor behaviour is different..Investors demand "more bang for their buck" during a secular Bear Market causing the stockmarket index growth to be slower than Company growth averaged over the long term..

    Basic strategies change with secular cycles..for example did you ever wonder why Life Insurance Salesmen which were prolific during the 1950 1960's went out of favour in the 1970's, the reversion to a secular bear had a lot to do with it...Same thing with superannuation funds over an individuals 40 year working life..The lucky workers that have 2 secular Bull market cycles and one secular bear market cycle during their 40 year working life received a better superannuation than a worker that had 2 secular bear Market cycles and only one Secular Bull Market Cycle
    Investors studying Secular Cycles can more accurately predict a future outcome, such as a long period of poor capital growth compensated by higher yield rates during secular bear cycles ..and..long periods of good capital growth with poor yield rates during secular bull market cycles..

    Now for the seemingly paradoxical scenario to the investor with no knowledge of what a secular market is....When a secular cycle nears it's end it is the Cyclical Bear that kills off a Secular Bear and a Cyclical Bull that kills off a Secular Bull.

    It would be nice if this thread discusses the effect this Cyclical Bear has on this Secular Bear and whether the long term investing strategies should remain the same...
    Secular Bear? Cyclical Bull? Not buying that logic for a moment of breath. Let me show you a chart:



    You say 20 years of bear market? Looking at the graph that level is around 12,000 for the DOW. Roughly we're around 21,000 (+/- 2000 on any given day). If you started investing in 2008, you would be still sitting with considerable gains (roughly x 3 times at today's valuation). You can frame your results by cherry picking any time on the chart. But to claim you can time markets based on when they're in a bullish or a bearish run is hog wash. No one with a degree of certainty can time when the stock market can crash. You'll get lucky ones but they have no ability than to make predictions like throw darts on the board.

    We should be clear that this global crisis has been caused by man (just as Buffet always speaks about in stock market crashes, a product of human misbehaviour).

    Wise investing strategy? Just buy on the dips and forget about in 10 or 20 years time.

  13. #418
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    25,895

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    Secular Bear? Cyclical Bull? Not buying that logic for a moment of breath. Let me show you a chart:



    You say 20 years of bear market? Looking at the graph that level is around 12,000 for the DOW. Roughly we're around 21,000 (+/- 2000 on any given day). If you started investing in 2008, you would be still sitting with considerable gains (roughly x 3 times at today's valuation). You can frame your results by cherry picking any time on the chart. But to claim you can time markets based on when they're in a bullish or a bearish run is hog wash. No one with a degree of certainty can time when the stock market can crash. You'll get lucky ones but they have no ability than to make predictions like throw darts on the board.

    We should be clear that this global crisis has been caused by man (just as Buffet always speaks about in stock market crashes, a product of human misbehaviour).

    Wise investing strategy? Just buy on the dips and forget about in 10 or 20 years time.
    SBQ - both you and Hoop are right but you are talking about completely different things.

    Hoops was discussing a secular cycle as measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear).. secular stock market cycles are valuationcycles.


    you are talking just about bull/bear cycles ....price cycles

    Secular cycles are an interesting study ...but SBQ traders such as yourself are better off not even trying to understand them.
    Last edited by winner69; 29-03-2020 at 02:59 PM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  14. #419
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    25,895

    Default

    SBQ

    Good chart that shows why both you ard Hoop are right

    You were commenting on the top part ... price action

    Hoop was commenting on the bottom part ...the trend in the PE ratio

    Note how the PE ratio is still trending down from its 2000 high ...meaning still in SECULAR BEAR MARKET

    That implies that long term expected returns (on US markets) from here are very low
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 29-03-2020 at 03:13 PM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #420
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,291

    Default

    There are indications that NZ will get through the level 4 in around a month with different areas being opened up at different times
    Auckland slower to free up
    Regions faster which should benefit our exports to pay for it all
    Less imports so trade balance shouldn't look too bad
    Thank goodness China is getting going again relatively quickly,this should benefit NZ exports

    With our exchange rate lower than 2 months ago will we see an influx/flood of money looking for relatively safe investments in NZ?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/op...ey-coming-from
    Last edited by kiora; 30-03-2020 at 10:33 AM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •