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11-04-2008, 01:17 PM
#101
A bit of short term info:
A bear market rally set to go off ???
Author Jeff Cooper is best known as a day trader and a short term trader analyst.
His article was published yesterday before the Thursday S&P index close (1361 up 6).
Interesting reading for us bear market investors using the short term buy/sell within bear market rallies....or those bear market investors using shorting strategies
A quote from the article...."My instinct tells me that the index is pulling back the rubber band for an assault of that level. You seldom see quadruple tops – the fourth attempt typically sees follow-through, hence the term "Rule of 4 Breakout." The duration and strength of such a breakout, if and when it comes, and the behavior at 1420, if and when it's hit, will tell us much about the month of May. However, the triple tops beckon. I believe this first multi-day pullback should see these triple tops at 1390/1400 level magnetize the S&P higher.....
......I would exercise caution until 1362 is recaptured. If 1370 is regained and we get a strong Friday close on the important weekly close, it sets up the breakout I am anticipating. (Ed..Thursdays close 1361)
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12-04-2008, 09:27 AM
#102
Originally Posted by Hoop
A bit of short term info:
A bear market rally set to go off ???
..........I would exercise caution until 1362 is recaptured. If 1370 is regained and we get a strong Friday close on the important weekly close, it sets up the breakout I am anticipating. [/COLOR](Ed..Thursdays close 1361)
Hoop - looks like we all have a wait a bit longer now after Fridays action on the S&P
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12-04-2008, 11:22 AM
#103
Last edited by Hoop; 12-04-2008 at 11:23 AM.
Reason: fix grammer error
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13-04-2008, 09:42 AM
#104
Originally Posted by Hoop
........ bad news during the week were shrugged off until the catalyst (GE surprise profit fall 6%) burst the "worst is over" sentiment bubble.
Haven't we been saying it is the E in the PE ratios that is under pressure (at least in the US and probably other parts of the world) and this will inevitability have an impact on the P as reduced earnings and lower PEs kick in.
S&P still on a relatively high PE and earnings are still forecast to increase .... yeah right
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13-04-2008, 01:31 PM
#105
Originally Posted by winner69
Haven't we been saying it is the E in the PE ratios that is under pressure (at least in the US and probably other parts of the world) and this will inevitability have an impact on the P as reduced earnings and lower PEs kick in.
S&P still on a relatively high PE and earnings are still forecast to increase .... yeah right
I think we will be mentioning these facts over and over again until we are blue in the face and most will still not embrace it....Unfortunately the big worry is the financial power brokers from large economic countries are seemingly ignoring it as well, probably is a mistaken belief that it may cause a negative over reaction.
All that research from past market cycles shows significantly the ebbs and flows of overall PE ratio values.... it's been proven time and time again throughout history....some of that research posted here on this thread by you and yet only a small number of investors and analysts seem to embrace it, or worse ..investors who don't even know about or care... or worse still... think it wont work this time.
It's amazing how so many people take their eye of the bigger picture and waste their valuable time and money on the insignificant day by day issues, much of it manipulated by emotion of the day and then plan their longer term strategy around those day by day events.
As mentioned on this thread, there has been a wealth of study over many decades proving that investors/analysts over estimate earnings in a bear market phase.....
....oh well Winner...such is life.
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17-04-2008, 10:31 AM
#106
Originally Posted by Hoop
A bit of short term info:
A bear market rally set to go off ???
Author Jeff Cooper is best known as a day trader and a short term trader analyst.
His article was published yesterday before the Thursday S&P index close ( 1361 up 6).
Interesting reading for us bear market investors using the short term buy/sell within bear market rallies....or those bear market investors using shorting strategies
A quote from the article...." My instinct tells me that the index is pulling back the rubber band for an assault of that level. You seldom see quadruple tops – the fourth attempt typically sees follow-through, hence the term "Rule of 4 Breakout." The duration and strength of such a breakout, if and when it comes, and the behavior at 1420, if and when it's hit, will tell us much about the month of May. However, the triple tops beckon. I believe this first multi-day pullback should see these triple tops at 1390/1400 level magnetize the S&P higher.....
......I would exercise caution until 1362 is recaptured. If 1370 is regained and we get a strong Friday close on the important weekly close, it sets up the breakout I am anticipating. (Ed..Thursdays close 1361)
Well folks it seems like ground hog day...a week later we are back to that stage of a week ago....another attempt to break resistence level.
Jeff Cooper could have saved himself the embarassment and postponed publishing this article until this week instead of last week
FTSE100 has yet again broken the 6000 resistence level (the previous 3 sucessful attempts ended up being false breaks (bull traps))...... So this time????
The DOW ASX Hang seng Nikkei S&P500 are all nudging at the top end of their downtrend lines...so is there going to be a globial breakout???
or a bull trap???
A key sentence rings out...."During a Bear market phase the market has the ability to disappoint".
Ironically with all this upswing in the indices, I am even more cautious now.
Disc : Cash 60% shares 40%
Heavy weighted in NZO PPP PRC... light weighted in MFT GPG
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19-04-2008, 02:27 PM
#107
Update
Below are the present index levels and their resistance levels (RL).
Index....... Present ..........Major R L .........Next Impt RL
Dow ...........12849 ...............12800 breached..13000
S&P500.... ...1390................ .1400 ................1450
FTSE100... ...6057.................6000 breached....6100
Hang Seng...24198............ ...26000
Nikkei .........13476 ...............13600 ..............14700
ASX.............5504............... .6000..................6400
NZX ............3557............... .3900
Jeff Cooper will be smiling this time
Bull traps?? or a Jeff Cooper breakout??
Last edited by Hoop; 19-04-2008 at 02:29 PM.
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10-05-2008, 10:17 AM
#108
DJIA currently sitting just below the support/resistance level of 12800. SP500 is below 1400. Prices might waver around support and resistance a bit, but the falls of the last two days are worrying.
Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.
AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.
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10-05-2008, 01:18 PM
#109
Originally Posted by AMR
DJIA currently sitting just below the support/resistance level of 12800. SP500 is below 1400. Prices might waver around support and resistance a bit, but the falls of the last two days are worrying.
Yes AWR, It could end up to be a very important signal.
Enough so to alert a warning
There are two schools of thought at the moment
1...... Bear market, experiencing a bully market rally at present.
2...... Extended Bull market, experiencing a trough formation but will recover to test 2007 highs at some stage. Most in this group now agree the trough may be longer than first thought.
Fridays close will be what Group 1 expects and their investment strategies are in place to handle this expectation. Group 2 may now be having second doubts as the trough is turning into a down wave pattern something that a 100% equity investor may lose sleep over.
As I am in the Group 1 category and see primary supports giving way on the DOW and S&P 500 it signals to me a possibility of an end to the Bear Market rally and the previous sudden uptrend was a typical bull trap. So I have these possibilities of a sudden fall imprinted on the back of my mind.
Group 2 may counter argue that this present downturn is bear trap and the indices will soon rise again
Also of note are the Global markets are starting to disconnect. The FTSE & NIKKEI is still above their primary supports and NZE and ASX never got to the stage of experiencing any breaking of primary resistances just a change in trends. Also negative news data suggesting a sharp drop in economic activity and a property market hard landing caused the NZX to turn down a couple of days ago. Whether the DOW and S&P has a large effect on the NZX is not known yet.
This new DOW downturn may see a temporarily larger flight of money to hot commodities (inverted correlation equity/commodity principals), temporarily leaving lesser available money in the equity market system.
Next week will be interesting.
Disc
Shares 50% /cash 50%.
PRC NZO PPP LMP GPG
Last edited by Hoop; 10-05-2008 at 01:20 PM.
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15-05-2008, 06:13 PM
#110
Brent steenbarger reports from traderfeed that the small caps and NASDAQ are starting to rally. The rally is spreading
Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.
AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.
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