sharetrader
Page 27 of 48 FirstFirst ... 1723242526272829303137 ... LastLast
Results 261 to 270 of 471
  1. #261
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,497

    Default

    Hard to say, the earnings yield I assume is the inverse to the PE ratio. 2009 Yields shot up as share prices crashed, interest rates were forced down to stop a depression.
    Not that I think anyone can predict the future. From the chart there has been an inverse correlation since 2009. I guess in the eighties high interest rates affected company profitability. The nineties there was a balance between lending money and dividend yields.In the early 2000sthe mining and property booms pushed up profits and interest rates. I conclude this chart gives me no idea what will happen next. But at a guess if you are taking more risk owning companies than fixed interest the earnings yield should stay above the 90 day rate but reading the likes of Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and a few others holding $us or US govt bonds could be one of the riskiest things you could do. Aussie and NZ I don't think are as bad as our govts are trying to get their budgets balanced and they don't have central banks pumping up the money supply to the same degree as the rest of the world.
    I should be like most posters on this website, looking at individual companies and finding opportunities. Instead I am procrastinating waiting for a deflationary crash before buying undervalued blue chip companies. When in fact we could quite easily end up with rampant inflation and me missing the boat even more.

  2. #262
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Just for you Aaron (and for Hoop) a chart of the Aust 90 day bill rate v earnings yield of the All Ords (esrnings yield being the inverse of the PE)

    Tell me what you think might happen over the next year or two
    .

    Eyeballing the two charts together and with only one previous secular bear cycle to compare against.
    It seems the cross over? (1974) occurs during the later stages of the secular bear cycle and flips back when inflation takes off (signature of the dying last stage of the Secular Bull Cycle?) and causes the interest rates (90DBY) to rise up.

    It makes theoretical sense, as it is the investor behaviour that makes the Secular bear cycle... the increasing desire to increase their portfolios with rock solid good yielding stocks. In other words..it is the era when the Equity Investor wants more bang for their buck and therefore in the end the Equity yield rate becomes higher than the interest rates.

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    .........Tell me what you think might happen over the next year or two
    .

    Well Winner ....Taking the view that Secular Cycles are measured by distance not by time....These two charts side by side seems to confirm my belief that the present Secular Bear Cycle still has about 5 to 7 PE points to fall before the bear dies****... whether that happens with a sudden crash in Equities, or over another 5+ years with another round(s) of cyclic bull then bear (my preferred option atm) ..... who knows???

    Can the length of the last Inversion be a reliable guide (1980 - 1974 = 6 years)????? If so then Jan 2014 looks to be the time of reckoning... the inversion ends and flips back signals the end of the Secular Bear Cycle.....If that is the case then, with the PE (annualised) at around 13 /14 this is far too high and there's too little time for growth to counter an Equity sharp drop down to sub 10.....Using this 6 year period scenario indicates a Equity crash (40-50%) any time from now to late 2013 together with a sudden increase in inflation (interest rates)......I consider this scenario as unlikely as it contradicts cyclic theory...It seems the All Ords is entering into another cyclic bull market cycle atm and these beasts live on average about 3.5 years.

    **** The sub 10 back in 2008/2009 cash was panic driven and too brief a time frame in my view to consider the death of the secular bear

    Last edited by Hoop; 30-10-2012 at 10:09 AM.

  3. #263
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    37

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I should be like most posters on this website, looking at individual companies and finding opportunities. Instead I am procrastinating waiting for a deflationary crash before buying undervalued blue chip companies. When in fact we could quite easily end up with rampant inflation and me missing the boat even more.
    I'm leaning more toward the inflation camp, but a crash is a crash, which will bring opportunities to pick up good bargains. So, I'm with you. Unfortunately, I missed the 2008 crisis/opportunity window

  4. #264
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    1,556

    Default

    Investors who are looking for the "ideal" moment could get old waiting.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fudosan View Post
    I'm leaning more toward the inflation camp, but a crash is a crash, which will bring opportunities to pick up good bargains. So, I'm with you. Unfortunately, I missed the 2008 crisis/opportunity window

  5. #265
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,497

    Default

    Tell me about it. The impatience is building. Am I right or am I wrong. No one knows the future and I miss Phaedrus's advice of not trying to predict the future but run with the price action until it sends warning signals to bail out. I personally would prefer a company(s) making good profits and paying healthy dividends so I don't need to worry about price movements. Another big up day for world markets last night. I control my urge to just buy anything knowing that the world markets are waiting for me to buy before crashing but I will wait them out this time. My concern is that at my age I will die poor... waiting.

  6. #266
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Waitakere New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,083

    Default

    Aaron that is exactly what you want to do. You can not spend it from the grave. All you need is enough to keep you in luxury until the day you die.
    Possum The Cat

  7. #267
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    1,556

    Default

    So how much is that P the C? It would make it so much simpler if we could just log on to www.howmuchtimetogo.com and plug in your vitals, get a retinal scan, prostate and brain scan online and then you'll know exactly how much money will be required. I dont even need luxury...comfie is fine. Personally I have inserted a clause in my will stipulating that any surplus cash left at my demise will be stored in a safe in my coffin to which only I have the combination. You cant be too carefull.
    Quote Originally Posted by POSSUM THE CAT View Post
    Aaron that is exactly what you want to do. You can not spend it from the grave. All you need is enough to keep you in luxury until the day you die.

  8. #268
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    1,556

    Default

    Heres a newsflash for you....no-one, I repeat no-one knows what lies ahead. Just because charts and historical performance imply that certain patterns existed dosesnt mean they will repeat. The only way you can make investing work (in my opinionated opinion) is to buy regularly and dont worry too much about whether its too high or too low. Traders are always going to be concerned about what a SP is doing...forget the stress. Just buy strong co.s and hold. No stress, no hours spent poring over company balance sheets, no should haves, no beating oneself up when you make premature sells or late buys. This is why I loved the dividend re-investment programs in the USA..most you could also arrange to have regular payments deducted monthly from your bank.
    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Tell me about it. The impatience is building. Am I right or am I wrong. No one knows the future and I miss Phaedrus's advice of not trying to predict the future but run with the price action until it sends warning signals to bail out. I personally would prefer a company(s) making good profits and paying healthy dividends so I don't need to worry about price movements. Another big up day for world markets last night. I control my urge to just buy anything knowing that the world markets are waiting for me to buy before crashing but I will wait them out this time. My concern is that at my age I will die poor... waiting.

  9. #269
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,509

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    So how much is that P the C? It would make it so much simpler if we could just log on to www.howmuchtimetogo.com and plug in your vitals, get a retinal scan, prostate and brain scan online and then you'll know exactly how much money will be required. I dont even need luxury...comfie is fine. Personally I have inserted a clause in my will stipulating that any surplus cash left at my demise will be stored in a safe in my coffin to which only I have the combination. You cant be too carefull.
    Love it!

    I used to think being a full time trader would be the perfect lifestyle... then, with the uncertain years of the GFC and torturing myself as to whether it was more important to preserve capital out of the market or to invest given the necessity of making money to live off... all the while sitting in a dim room staring at a computer screen, spending as little money as possible because of the need to preserve/grow the capital... rather like your coffin and safe at times!

  10. #270
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by POSSUM THE CAT View Post
    Aaron that is exactly what you want to do. You can not spend it from the grave. All you need is enough to keep you in luxury until the day you die.
    I don't disagree but I am still hoping/praying/investing in getting to a point I can actually live in luxury. Probably not living in luxury but having enough financial assets to provide some financial security so I am not worrying all the time about finances or living hand to mouth.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •