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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by xxamr_corpxx View Post
    FBU has to fall a long way to break the uptrend line - Phadreus has done a post over on the NZX forum. The resistance in the 1110s-1120s held up nicely today. If that had broken, FBU would have made a scary looking 6 month double top pattern.
    A little confused about your statement XX. As I see it the uptrend line on Phaedrus chart will be broken at $11.15 or thereabouts as well as that resistance.

    If one uses a linear graph the uptrend line break is around the $10 mark, is this what you are referring to?

    Agreed FBU held up nicely today and the market in general closed stronger to be just down, which is positive news for FBU.

  2. #22
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    Dow finished at 13300
    Dow broken down through 13500.
    This is bearish, a better than average chance that it will test the major support level of 12800 (-4%)

    Warning signal for another correction.

    How NZX is going to withstand this I'm not sure, its been rather resilient lately.
    I'm cashing in some stocks just in case.

  3. #23
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    Ditto, I was quite nervous watching the Dow plunge 60 points in the last half an hour to end up around 350 points down. What worried me about this is correction was that it was not confined to the financials. The SP500 also broke below 1490.

    To answer your question, what I meant was that it has to close below the price and not just touch it intra-day. I think the closing price on the day was at around 1140 or so. I was only long for a day or so before I sold out.

    I'm now looking to trade stocks predominantly from the short side. The Hang Seng index looks like it would be good to short soon.
    Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.

    AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.

  4. #24
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    Yes XX hang Seng seems the most volatile with big swings

    Got an Automated email from Colin Twiggs newsletter at 6.10pm thusday saying nearly word for word what we have said.

    It seems all the Ducks have lined up in a row on this one. Colin Twiggs has monitored The DOW, S&P500, FTSE 100, Shanghai composite, Aust all ords, they all have broken key supports and signaling a secondary correction.

    Sold out of GPG and sold 1/2 of my FBU (my key stock) yesterday.
    Gone from 20% to 30% cash. Wish it was more, but I don't know which stock to part with.

    Some large sellers were in the market, that is never a good sign.
    Warning

  5. #25
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    The NZSX50 has dropped 3% since the warning.
    I have cash up my weaker stocks, ahead of the fall.
    Now I look at the overall picture of how far this correction goes.
    The good news that there seems to be buying amongst the gloom in the DOW so commentators give us a 50% / 50% chance that the key support of 12800 will hold. This means another -2% to go at best.
    The bad news is that the Nikkei is now a bear market.

    I orginally focused on the DOW to look for the correction warning....I now focus on the NZSE50 graph as I mainly invest in NZ stocks as this becomes more important once the warning has be identified. Points to watch is the break in the 5yr trendline somewhere around the 4040 mark and more importantly the key 3900 support line. If NZ follows USA market then another -2% brings the NZ market to about 4020 and bouncing on the trendline but well within the 3900.
    So to deduce the statistics, if the Dow holds up above the 12800, the NZSX50 is OK, and I may buy back my just sold weaker stocks, ( FBU and GPG ) and go on stock watch positive

    If the DOW falls below the very important 12800 the NZSX has a -3% buffer before it breaks a key support. Then the all important support is at 3500. (-12%)

    If the NZSX breaks the 3900 I will eye up my long term stocks and sell as they break their uptrend lines.

    Stocks 65% Cash 35% ( should be cashed up more but awaiting half year reports).
    Last edited by Hoop; 12-11-2007 at 12:56 PM.

  6. #26
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    Dow back up past 13300 needs to be above 13500 before I become positive again that the latest correction has ended.

    Good to see that both NZSX and FBU have had gains and have respected their trend lines.

    Although I sold half of my holding in FBU at $11.69. and FBU seems to be bouncing back up again( $11.57), I still regard the saying "rather be a live coward than a dead hero". A lot of rumours flying around about a big correction waiting to happen...whether it happens or not is not the issue...the issue is that if one can pick the signals of an impending correction then one should react to it.

    FBU back on my positive watch
    GPG watching

  7. #27
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    I force myself to buy when im not positive.

    We all have a tendency to want to buy when feeling good about the markets , better to buy when full of gloom and doom. Not easy to do but i find it works better.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    I force myself to buy when im not positive.

    We all have a tendency to want to buy when feeling good about the markets , better to buy when full of gloom and doom. Not easy to do but i find it works better.
    I am not positive about this market. Yes I do buy in doom and gloom (bear market 3) but we are not in doom & gloom we are in heightened expectation at bull market 3 /bearmarket wave1, can not distinguish which at the moment, but I know from past experiences that I always seem to lose money in the BM3 phase and this one has been no different to me, except that I have indentified the historic signals and have reacted accordingly...therefore losing less than I would have otherwise by forcefully selling out earlier than I would've normally. This BM3/Wave 1 is a period when I hold thinking things will bounce back (as my stocks seem financially sound) and continue upwards only to be disappointed by my companies report back that due to outside factors they are not meeting there forward targets. RAK is a good example of this.

    Overnight the DOW fell through a slight resistence and pyscological level of 13000 level...it wil now test the big primary support 12800. Likewise with FTSE and S&P all testing their primary support levels.
    My gut feel is that these primary supports have a good chance of failing. OK I'm a pessimist, but their is no harm in selling as I can always buy back in.
    Sold RAK yesterday at $4.48 for a small overall loss
    Selling AMP (another of my major long term stocks)
    The rest of my FBU is on negative watch
    Gone from 13 to 7 stocks in my portfolio this year
    50% cash

  9. #29
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    Dow at the watershed...closed 12799. Where to from here...up or down. If down expect a harsh correction to 12000 ?? (another 7%)
    Long weekend for them thanks giving tomorrow friday.
    My Cash now at 54%.

  10. #30
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    I personally think the DOW will go bear next week. I've cashed up more NZ stock with overseas exposure. Sold the rest of FBU and FPH
    Mainly NZ exposure only stocks left
    Cash 63% shares 37%

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