This an interesting bit - If there is no recession by 2020, we will have lived through the first decade in 120 years without one
But as in most articles these days these words appeared "this time it is truly different"
I would hazard a guess that many on this forum have only lived through the recent good times and not through a complete secular bull / bear cycle - current conditions are the norm eh.
But as they say bull markets go out with a bang ......and inevitably there will be a bang one day
A lot less Kiwisaver funds entering the market during the lockdown. No more share buybacks in the US. Maybe more downside? Central banks buying everything? Earnings drop not yet quantified. Is it still too early to enter the market?
A lot less Kiwisaver funds entering the market during the lockdown. No more share buybacks in the US. Maybe more downside? Central banks buying everything? Earnings drop not yet quantified. Is it still too early to enter the market?
We only will know when it is too late :
Best strategy might not be to wait until a recovery is confirmed ... I suspect the initial relief rally might be as difficult to catch (for buying) as the initial drops have been (for selling).
Plan some scenarios how you think this will play out (say somewhere between 4 months and 18 months duration) and spread your buying around these scenarios. That's what I am doing - and obviously trying to avoid any high growth negative earnings companies - this is the time to buy solid and well established companies making stuff (or providing services) people need.
Hint 1: I did start already some limited buying, but keep most of my powder still dry. BTW - looks like I am not the only one who started buying - just look at the recent SSH's e.g. for OCA and SML.
Hint 2: If people feel that it is the time to buy ... don't forget your conservative or balanced Kiwi saver account. When stocks are down, there will be an amazing opportunity for fund managers to pick up cheap quality stocks ... if investors give them the powder to do so. I started this process as well ... obviously - not spending all my powder (in this case conservative part of the account) at once.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
A lot less Kiwisaver funds entering the market during the lockdown. No more share buybacks in the US. Maybe more downside? Central banks buying everything? Earnings drop not yet quantified. Is it still too early to enter the market?
Hey Aaron
weren't you the person waiting for the crash?
If so you have to buy something!
Hey Aaron
weren't you the person waiting for the crash?
If so you have to buy something!
Too right. Some shares are at a nearly 50% discount to recent values. No major crisis has finished within a month though, so I am still waiting for a bottom. Looks like we might have hit bottom yesterday. I should take Blackpeters advice and get serious about some limited buying of some shares but I am mindful of Phaedrus's advice on using TA to time an entry. Prices are all over the show and maybe QE infinity has stopped the drop but if Covid-19 has pricked the debt bubble then there could be worse to come. The moves in the sharemarkets are historic (c.f. 1929 and 1987) so surely not all over before the end of April, although it feels like it today.
Originally Posted by winner69
Reply With Quote
:
Bookmarks