BHP - Astonishing result

[gisborne_gold]

BHP up 5% today and now over $48, a new record high, after being in the low 30s earlier this year.

[winner69]

This is what I posted when BHP was about $25 ..... the gist of a review as to what could happen to BHP share price .... suggested $60 possible .... I still believe that


..... small end of resource sector is performing so strongly it is making BHP and RIO (the market leaders) look ridiculously cheap ... not just this making BHP and RIO cheap but compared to 15 times earnings for a Aussie bank, 20 times for a contractor, 30 times for a healthcare .... even Telstra is 15 times .... BUT BHP IS LESS THAN 10 TIMES EARNINGS .... none of these have the attributes like earnings growth, net assets, free cashflow growth, barriers to entry etc etc etc .... one day soon the brokers and analysts will give up their woeful attempts to forecast commodity prices and start basing their valuations on long term future curves .... resulting in broker's upgrades of 40% plus ... we are on the brink of a 'seminal change' in how analysts value resource stocks .... and that one day investors will have decided to commit to major resource stocks ... they will be become acceptable for growth and value investors and fundies will need to be at leat at index if not greater .... based on true fundamentals and not rated as a resource company

Just like the rerating of News in 1999/2000 ..... a large mkt cap company and big component of the index that traded around $20 (pre split) for years and low multiplies compared to junior tech/media stocks and then in 2000 'investors capitulated on their bearish views and News rallied from $20 to $56 in SIX months ..... it was a monumental event and many funds were under exposed and many mangers lost their jobs

That was back in October last year - had a few ups and downs since but today showed that $50 is not just possible but achievable ..... so $60 is definitely on the cards ....... so $80-$100 should be the next target .... sometime in the next year I believe

Nothing has really changed in the fundamnetals recently .... the story is just as compelling ........ believe in the story and keep hold of BHP

[Lizard]

Wow, nothing for over two years... this seems to be the newest BHP thread on ST...

Anyway, just wondering if anyone has a better explanation for why BHP is down 3.5% today than the news that a (previously unknown) takeover offer that they'd made for a potash company has been rejected? Presumably there is something more to this...?

[peat]

saw this -

SYDNEY Aug 17 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard plans to bring in a 30 percent tax on profits at larger iron ore and coal mining firms from 2012 if she wins Saturday's election. Her opponent, Tony Abbott, has pledged to dump the tax. With the poll on a knife-edge, the mining sector faces huge uncertainty. Even if Gillard wins the Greens could end up as kingmakers in the senate and push for a stronger tax.

might explain it
but could also be some aspect of disppointment for the offer being rejected. a reduction of growth possibilities or knowing that they'll have to pay more to acquire.

[upside_umop]

The independents are voting with BHP, RIO and AUD not liking what they're hearing.

Currently going on CNBC at the moment.

[JBmurc]

Labours got it UU Mining Tax here it comes

[STRAT]

Labours got it UU Mining Tax here it comes

Dunno JB. Labor are on shakey ground. Expect another election before years end I reckon plus they might soften on that mining tax for fear of pushing themselves off the cliff they find themselves standing on the edge of right now.

[JBmurc]

Dunno JB. Labor are on shakey ground. Expect another election before years end I reckon plus they might soften on that mining tax for fear of pushing themselves off the cliff they find themselves standing on the edge of right now.

yeah maybe big unknown I sure the Greens have also supported the labour CNBC news was going on about a likely mining tax to come forward last I remember on the tax it was going to be focused on IRON ORE ,OIL majors??

[Huang Chung]

The watered down mining tax is supposed to be limited to Coal and Iron Ore (there is a seperate tax for some of the O&G developments).

But I read somewhere today that there is a supposedly an $8b black hole in the revenue estimates from the tax, so maybe, now Labor are back in, it might find its way to other ore types mined here.

I'm 99% invested in Pappilon Resources right now, so their west African focus should shield them nicely from any changes to the mining tax.

PS. Come July 2011, the Greens will be in control of the Senate, and those loonies want an even higher mining tax than Labor (as well as being anti-coal mining and even anti-CSG!!)

[Corporate]

Am I dreaming or are they on a forward PE (based on the 31 December half year) of 7-8? This can't be right...can it?