BHP - Astonishing result

[macduffy]

Agree, Daytr.

BHP havn't admitted it yet but the odds are increasing that they will reduce their dividend, particularly as they have recently stated that they are "committed to protecting their balance sheet".

[macduffy]

Too early for me but Credit Suisse rates BHP an Outperform.

"Credit Suisse rates BHP as Outperform (1) - December quarter production was lower than the preceding quarter. Credit Suisse adjusts volumes for the FY16 production guidance, which is unchanged other than for the exclusion of Samarco iron ore, which remains suspended.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and $20.00 target.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $14.21 Difference: $5.79 If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $20.16, suggesting upside of 41.9%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 83.08 cents and EPS of 44.96 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.61. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of N/A.Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 83.08 cents and EPS of 59.57 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.85. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.1, implying annual growth of 89.7%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9."

[winner69]

BHP one day will be back to $40 odd

Plenty f time to buy in cheap I reckon ....wait until an uptrend starts

[Beagle]

Too early for me but Credit Suisse rates BHP an Outperform.

"Credit Suisse rates BHP as Outperform (1) - December quarter production was lower than the preceding quarter. Credit Suisse adjusts volumes for the FY16 production guidance, which is unchanged other than for the exclusion of Samarco iron ore, which remains suspended.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and $20.00 target.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $14.21 Difference: $5.79 If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $20.16, suggesting upside of 41.9%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 83.08 cents and EPS of 44.96 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.61. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of N/A.Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 83.08 cents and EPS of 59.57 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.85. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.1, implying annual growth of 89.7%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9."

Thanks. Like many in these sort of circumstances I prefer to simply follow the technicals and wait till the 100 day MA is clearly broken through back to the upside...whenever that might be ? I doubt with the extreme velocity of the price drops in so many commodities that any analyst can reliably predict future earnings at this stage.

[winner69]

Motley Fool email spam stuff had this tweet included in it

@pgker: Barclays estimate the ''upside'' share price estimate for BHP over the next year is $14.70.The downside: $6.30


Did the world ever find out how many died and what was the degree of pollution/damage caused when that dam collapsed in Brazil.

One reason not to buy

[Bobdn]

Wow, I think I need to go on an Understanding Results" 101 course. I was expecting a serious dent in my networth when I read about the result this morning (dividend cut/multi billion dollar losses) but the market absolutely loves it.

[macduffy]

Wow, I think I need to go on an Understanding Results" 101 course. I was expecting a serious dent in my networth when I read about the result this morning (dividend cut/multi billion dollar losses) but the market absolutely loves it.

Yes, the market was expecting something worse. The big write offs, loss and dividend cut had been either previously advised, hinted at, or at least widely anticipated. A relief rally which may or may not be sustained but the (slightly) improving metal prices, especially iron ore, will help.
Disc: Not holding.

[Bobdn]

Yes, looks like you're right. Imagine if this result had come in before the surge in metal prices. Would have been nasty for a while.

[moimoi]

Wow, I think I need to go on an Understanding Results" 101 course. I was expecting a serious dent in my networth when I read about the result this morning (dividend cut/multi billion dollar losses) but the market absolutely loves it.

Short covering...a squaring up of positions taken prior to the results announcement.

A narrow trading range given the volume. Algorithmic meaningless. Down the next few days unless POO levitates further...

[macduffy]

Yes, the market was expecting something worse. The big write offs, loss and dividend cut had been either previously advised, hinted at, or at least widely anticipated. A relief rally which may or may not be sustained but the (slightly) improving metal prices, especially iron ore, will help.
Disc: Not holding.

And down 8% today! Yesterday's iron ore and oil price rises didn't stick!
Disc: Still not holding.