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  1. #121
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    aargh, thats pretty horrendous! Seems snoutish doesn't it. Even for an $11 Billion mkt cap company which has performed incredibly well with 10% + returns until this year and s/p re $10, 10 years ago now $55 plus ,was $80 not long ago . Dont know if Rex has been there that long. Its all out of my knowledge how they justify and set salaries and bonuses seem a rort and terminal payoffs after inflicting damage to the company is incendiary to me. Good article thanks w69.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    So far so good vol and price wise Rupert...... but early days.Tomorrow may be up/down due to .....
    An RHC subsidiary has made a takeover bid which has been rejected atp.RHC offering a fullish price for it, ive read so holders may be relieved about the NO but nervous about a sweeter too.

    Ramsay Generale de Sante makes unsolicited bid for Capio AB
    Seems to be holding up ok around this level at the moment but as you said could go up or down from here so not planning on topping up any time soon

  3. #123
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    From The Australian

    Private health insurance statistics released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority show that another 57,512 Australians ditched hospital cover in the June quarter.

    By the end of June, only 45.1 per cent of the population had hospital cover — the lowest level in eight years.


    Morgan Stanley analysts said the fact members continue to leave the private health insurance industry would likely reinforce falling volume trends in hospitals.

    The analysts said that trend highlighted a risk to expectations for Ramsay Health Care’s fiscal 2019 earnings per share.

    Morgan Stanley said the recent data had increased its conviction that Ramsay’s fiscal 2019 EPS growth would be flat at best, with around a 10 per cent in fall in the share price to around $50. Shares in Ramsay are trading around $55.80.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From The Australian


    The analysts said that trend highlighted a risk to expectations for Ramsay Health Care’s fiscal 2019 earnings per share.

    Morgan Stanley said the recent data had increased its conviction that Ramsay’s fiscal 2019 EPS growth would be flat at best, with around a 10 per cent in fall in the share price to around $50. Shares in Ramsay are trading around $55.80.
    Yep, seems little reason for anyone to hold this stock at present. After Ten years ofgreat growth it can take a while for people to realise the good times are over
    Last edited by ratkin; 20-08-2018 at 11:04 AM.

  5. #125
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    Health insurance cover now 45.5% from a peak of 47.4% in 2015 , a 4% decline for context. It does appear to be at the wrong end of the cycle. The govt cant afford to let companies like RHC fail though so some incentives need to be offered. Heres another research note agreeing the short term not so good.

    How cheap is too cheap?

    Thursday, June 21st, 2018
    Ramsay Health Care shares were battered to 52-week lows recently by capitulation selling in response to a negative broker report. It’s been a tough two years for shareholders in the former market darling, whose shares have trended lower from a peak over $84 in September 2016 to below $60 today. The resignation of the former popular and highly regarded CEO was followed by two lower-quality earnings results, vocal short-selling and calls by analysts for the premium earnings multiple to de-rate. The stock is now well out of favour.
    Given Ramsay’s earlier record of growth and investment quality, value investors will be asking if this is an opportunity. We think it is, but only on a three-year view and there could be more downside yet. Weighing growth, capital management and risk Ramsay is currently worth around $60 – not much more than current prices. Near-term, the stock could drift lower if the market decides the 19 times multiple on forward consensus earnings is too high for a stock with single-digit growth.
    Ramsay is often described as a go-to play on population ageing given surgery and hospital-delivered interventions for the baby boomers are set to grow as this cohort ages. The central problem for shareholders today however is the Australian growth curve from ageing is two years away and meanwhile Ramsay is caught in a marked cyclical and structural slowdown in private hospital admissions. Meanwhile the French and UK operations, which together contribute some 20 per cent of operating earnings, are ex-growth. The interim result reported in February missed market expectations on revenue and only just met guidance due to lower tax and interest expense than expected.
    Investors still acknowledge Ramsay for its operational quality and clinical excellence, which are crucial to attracting doctors and patients. For this reason, its scale and the superior locations of the group’s Australian hospitals, Ramsay attracts a more profitable casemix than peers and has taken market share over time.
    It can probably continue to do so but even Ramsay can’t fight the slowdown in private hospital industry volume growth from seven per cent per annum 10 years ago to 2.8 per cent this year. Australians are turning their backs on private health insurance and private healthcare, due mainly to declining affordability. Over the last five years private health insurance premiums compounded at 5.8 per cent per annum, faster than average wage growth of around two per cent. Awareness of the high out-of-pocket costs of surgery and accommodation in private hospitals has grown.
    Hospital private health insurance coverage is down to 45.5 per cent from a recent peak of 47.4 per cent in the March quarter of 2015. Exclusions within policies are more popular, causing some insureds not to be covered for all surgeries. The resulting increase in high-end surgeries in the public sector is one main reason for the deterioration in casemix for private hospitals. We do not expect the federal government’s October 2017 reforms to private health insurance (gold, silver, bronze and basic policies from April 2019) will materially reduce the trends away from membership and towards more exclusionary policies. There is also no broad acceleration in wages underway to restore the affordability of membership.
    Consumers who kept their private health policies are increasingly using them for admission to public hospitals, which cover more costs than private hospitals including policy excesses. Public hospitals have incentives to pursue private business because it shifts costs from the states/territories back to the Commonwealth, which so far has not introduced policies to limit the shift of private patients into public hospitals.
    Healthcare services stocks always carry elevated political/legislative risk given intensive regulation. While we do not expect the federal opposition, if elected, would remove or further dilute the private health insurance rebate, its policy to cap growth in premiums at two per cent per annum for two years would almost certainly damage private hospital profitability by reducing contracted payments from insurers while costs keep rising regardless. The sharemarket is already starting to price in this risk given the opposition is competitive in the polls. The policy probably wouldn’t increase private health insurance membership given funds would respond with more exclusions, higher excesses and greater co-payments.
    Meanwhile, Ramsay’s acquisitions in the UK and France remain unproven. Tariff cuts and disappointing volume growth have forced the company to bolster earnings by cutting costs.
    Having considered this gloomy bear case, investors now need to ask if it is fully priced in by the fall in the share price. As long as the government is returned at the next election, we consider Ramsay is worth $60 per share and would be oversold at $54, where the forward earnings multiple would be too low at 17 times.
    It is also important to stand aside from the gloom and ask if the consensus earnings downgrades have now ended. Large-cap stocks like Ramsay are intensively researched and react quickly to changing perceptions of earnings fundamentals. While the stock is not about to return to its glory days of double-digit earnings growth, and profitability will fall due to less operating leverage from slower growth in Australia, we do think tariffs in France and the UK have bottomed. There was a 0.75 per cent average tariff increase in the UK in April and French President Macron has said he will not seek further cost savings from the healthcare sector over the next four years. The UK National Health Service’s demand management strategies, which inflate surgery waiting lists, are also unsustainable. All this means probably no further downgrades to earnings forecasts for Ramsay’s European operations and adds to the case the share price is within a few dollars of bottoming. We would see further weakness from downgrades to forecasts for Ramsay’s Australian business as an opportunity.

    Clime Group owns shares in RHC.

    https://www.clime.com.au/investing-...mail&utm_campaign=ir-210618&utm_content=title
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 20-08-2018 at 09:23 AM.

  6. #126
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    RHC's takeover offer stymied. S/P up tomorrow in a relief rally?

    News: RHC Swedish healthcare firm Capio to sell French business to Vivalto Sante

  7. #127
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    Forecast eps growth +2% for F19 not that great
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  8. #128
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    RHC at a 6 -7 month high vol looking good too up re 10% since december , a defensive global stock..

    Global industry growth fundamentals, check the stats here!!!
    The number of people aged over 65 has increased to more than 656 million, or 11.5% of the total population
    Globally, chronic disease prevalence is growing quickly, most prominently, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. 415M diabetics in 2018 expected to increase to 642M by 2040.
    Depression is the leading cause of ill health and disability worldwide. More than 300 million people are now living with depression, an increase of more than 18% between 2005 and 2015

    Last presentation in nov
    Managing Directors Presentation to the 2018 AGM




  9. #129
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    Joshuatree are u entering comp - close in hours
    Be aware of wizards, for they are subtle and quick to anger.
    that not forbidden is manditory.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Yep, seems little reason for anyone to hold this stock at present. After Ten years ofgreat growth it can take a while for people to realise the good times are over
    Bottomed re $53 in October 18 ,now just over $60.Not stellar as the mkt has been crazy up last few months but a slow burner longterm imo. Govt's have to incentivise the public to go private. Still holding.RHC looks good T/A wise too (basic M/A, stock, RSI).

  11. #131
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    Hit $65 today on reassuring results, through a difficult period, nearly every figure is up and the outlook for that 2% increase in EPS , mkt applauds.60DMA has shot through 180 DMA
    Download Document 181.04KB
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 28-02-2019 at 01:52 PM.

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Hit $65 today on reassuring results, through a difficult period, nearly every figure is up and the outlook for that 2% increase in EPS , mkt applauds.60DMA has shot through 180 DMA
    Download Document 181.04KB
    Well done on holding Joshuatree. I sold out last year and almost jumped back in when it was hovering around $53 but dithered too long. May buy in again if it drops back down.

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    A$79.35 today re a 39% gain in one year, eat that

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    A$79.35 today re a 39% gain in one year, eat that
    Well done keeping the faith when I didnt, you have been well rewarded

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