BVS - Bravura Solutions

[steve fleming]

Footsie - good call re the retrace. However it has been on exceedingly light volume (ie average of about 50,000 shares per day).

By contrast, the rise from 1.30 to 1.70 saw volumes average over 500,000 (10 x higher)

Also, FYI, the Corporations Act requires Substantial holders to notify any changes in their holdings of more than 1%, within two business days.
Pretty severe penalties apply if this is not complied with.

[Footsie]

Yes steve

but the point is Queensland investment are now below the 5% mark

So they dont have to file anything.

Hence why i think its them selling out
5% is 7.1m shares

Look im not trying to argue with you guys.
I like BVA as much as you do.
I'm just trying to be 100% sure that the downtrend is over.
Therefore unlike mosteph i'm not trying to pick bottoms
I'm just waiting for confirmation that its time to go long -boots and all

[Phaedrus]

This chart illustrates some of the points that others here are making.

The On Balance Volume indicator gives good insight into whether volume is flowing into or out of a security and often gives early warning of changes in market sentiment. Usually, such warnings precede other more commonly used signals. That was not the case here though, when the break of the upward trendline triggered a Sell some days ahead of any obvious OBV signal.

The histogram along the bottom of the chart depicts Volume. Up days have green bars, down, red, and blue = no change. You can easily see the effect that high volume days have on the OBV plot. I have circled "steps" in the OBV that were caused by the 2 biggest "up" days and the 2 biggest "down" days. Obviously the former are Bullish and the latter Bearish.

So, what does this chart show? Well, firstly, it shows that BVA is still in a downtrend. Right now, it would need a Close of above 170 to end this downtrend by confirming the existence of an uptrend. Note, however the following :-
(1) The big down days are getting progressively smaller.
(2) The OBV appears to be flattening out, maybe even beginning to rise.
(3) See how over the last couple of weeks, the Up day volumes have been markedly higher than the Down day volumes.
(4) Notice the recent 4 consecutive Up days. (First time all year)
(5) These Up days were on increasing volume.

All of the above are evidence that the downtrend is weakening. I wouldn't be buying yet, but any/all of the following would generate Buy signals, in my opinion.
(1) A break of the trendline.
(2) A clear rise in the OBV.
(3) A break above 170 (the beginning of an uptrend)

I usually avoid giving any personal opinion at all with regard to charts that I post, and prefer to let the market speak for itself. Here, though, I'm almost prepared to stick my neck out and say that it looks as though the bottom is in at 130.

Time will tell though eh?

[Footsie]

Its now cut through the red line phaedrus has drawn.....

I can hear someone ringing a bell !!

I close into the 1.60's and a hold above this level would signal it for me.

Is Queensland investment nearly finished?

Time will tell.

[stephen]

I lost interest on today's announcment that the UK operation is outsourcing infrastructure to EDS. Nothing good will come of that.

My experience of working in companies where this has happened is that while IT costs go down, obstacles to productivity increase for the people who earn the money. It's never supposed to work out like that, but it always does.

I could expand on the reasons why this is so, but anyway, they're off my watchlist now.

[Footsie]

I've pulled the trigger.....

shot my load so to speak

It was the volume that did it for me

Technically i might have got it slightly wrong but its hard to get your timing exactly right Fundamentally with earnings growing from 4.2cps to say 15cps in 2 years its a high conviction trade

[Footsie]

well as they say if you cant justify your purchase you shouldnt be buying

and if you wouldnt buy more..... then you should sell

[steve fleming]

Huntleys reaffirm BUY on BVA today:

"FY08 EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $26m and $29m. FY08 EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 17% as scale increases and integration complete, resource management and utilisation improve.

These revenue projections may be quite conservative – they certainly suggest lower growth than earlier indications.

However major implementations under way and offshore expansion involve significant risk so greater than usual prudence is welcome.

BVA has the underpinnings of a strong global business with cash flows underpinned by the mature Rufus operation, which itself should grow profit at 20%+ for the next two years.

The non-Rufus part of the business is establishing itself as a strong player in the high growth wealth management segment.

The experience of developing product for the innovative Australia market provides BVA with a competitive advantage in other markets "

[Footsie]

CHOMP

Breakout.

[Footsie]

I think we should see a real breakout this week as the LT and ST mA cross.