THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

Hmm, but then thl is not just NZ. Obviously the world confidence levels affect tourism though, and they are seriously hard to read presently.

However, the TH2 digital platform just got a new CEO from high up in expedia (which also owns trivago). http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...929/294189.pdf

Your posts on thl seem variously up or down, Winner. I don't really understand? Are you just nervous that they are a good company but in a market that requires the good times to keep going?

Consistent view is thl is a capital intensive business playing in a cyclical market. Current business worth only $4.00 / $4.50 and needs the touted acquisitions to get share price back to $6/$7 (or be acquired)

So at $5 odd still hoping good times (market continues) and hoping for acquisitions one way or the other ....and being ‘up or down’ probably is dependent how I see each of those playing out.

[simla]

Okay, thanks.

[Leftfield]

Hmm, but then thl is not just NZ. Obviously the world confidence levels affect tourism though, and they are seriously hard to read presently.

However, the TH2 digital platform just got a new CEO from high up in expedia (which also owns trivago). http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...929/294189.pdf

Your posts on thl seem variously up or down, Winner. I don't really understand? Are you just nervous that they are a good company but in a market that requires the good times to keep going?

From a TA perspective THL is not looking great and I no longer hold. It will need some positive news and a trend change to entice me back. I suspect the market is very unsure re the potential of the TH2 digital platform which could be the best thing since sliced bread, but also could be an expensive mistake. Time will tell.

[iceman]

The hammering today obviously a result of AIR's big downgrade and negative outlook on the industry. Bot shares may be in for a rough ride this year. Luckily I pulled out of AIR when the RR engine problems hit and have reduced THL quite a bit. But have firmly fastened the seatbelts and will hold the remaining shares through the rough ride ahead. As winner69 says, we desperately need good news or acquisitions announcements :-)

[percy]

Yet I read recently, November hotel/motel etc visitor stay nights in November were up on the previous year.
MCK report in a week or two, so will see what their occupancy has been.

[winner69]

Yet I read recently, November hotel/motel etc visitor stay nights in November were up on the previous year.

Yes numbers still increasing ...but growth rate declining

AIR said ‘slowing growth’ domestically and ‘softening inbound tourism traffic’

[mondograss]

Yes numbers still increasing ...but growth rate declining

AIR said ‘slowing growth’ domestically and ‘softening inbound tourism traffic’

Which makes diversifying into other markets and other growth areas more critical. Like many others on this forum I'm not convinced of the value of TH2, but I'm willing to give it a bit of time to play out and see what they can make of it.

[iceman]

It will be interesting to read the interim report to see how they have been trading, but confidence in tourism sure has taken a hit today. Interim should be available in about 2 weeks or so. Fingers crossed meantime

[iceman]

NZ Statistics reports 386,000 international visitors arrived in November, up 7% YoY giving us an annual growth in numbers of 3.6% to 3.85 million. Still growing quite respectably but significantly slower than the huge growth in recent year. This is a good thing as our infrastructure is not coping with the high growth to continue forever.
With 5 people Worldwide joining the middle class every second, I think there is little doubt tourism will continue to grow significantly in the next 1-2 decades. Important to remember that the sky is not falling, just a slightly slower growth, which I think is a good thing for NZ.

Of course NZ tourism is but one part of THL, but an important one.

[iceman]

I'll be buying more AIR today as well. I still believe in the story, but as you wisely point out, a little breather to catch up may overall be a good thing for New Zealand.

I'm tempted to re-enter AIR again but will need to stay focused and wait and see :-)