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  1. #3721
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    The AFR Street Talk column today is evidently suggesting that bankers have been promoting to buyout firms that there is a play to be had through buying out and merging THL and ATL. See post on HC under ATL for details.

    While combining the two companies would provide plenty of scope for rationalisation of infrastructure and perhaps fleet sizes, I’m assuming it would be a hard sell to get past regulators given the market dominance of a merged company in both NZ and Aus.

  2. #3722
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Lad View Post
    The AFR Street Talk column today is evidently suggesting that bankers have been promoting to buyout firms that there is a play to be had through buying out and merging THL and ATL. See post on HC under ATL for details.

    While combining the two companies would provide plenty of scope for rationalisation of infrastructure and perhaps fleet sizes, I’m assuming it would be a hard sell to get past regulators given the market dominance of a merged company in both NZ and Aus.
    3 bagger on the way , atl be a cheap buy for thl now
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  3. #3723
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    3 bagger on the way , atl be a cheap buy for thl now
    Be very careful as they would inherit ATL's mountain [mountains] load of debt [debts].
    Last edited by percy; 06-06-2020 at 10:58 AM.

  4. #3724
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Lad View Post
    The AFR Street Talk column today is evidently suggesting that bankers have been promoting to buyout firms that there is a play to be had through buying out and merging THL and ATL. See post on HC under ATL for details.

    While combining the two companies would provide plenty of scope for rationalisation of infrastructure and perhaps fleet sizes, I’m assuming it would be a hard sell to get past regulators given the market dominance of a merged company in both NZ and Aus.
    I'd put this into the pump and category and guess that someone raising the possibility already has a position that they are ready to dump. THL has been exploring potential acquistion targets in the past so its inconceivable that they haven't taken a good look at the idea of an equity raise and buying out ATL. That THL haven't indicates the synergies are probably not there, there is a big regulatory hurdle or the scale of the equity raise for acquisition and recapitalisation is too big. Whether you could keep ATL's debt levels or need to chuck in a lot of new equity to bring them down would depend on ATL's financing terms. While ATL is trading at 36c, its net debt/share was $1.92 at the end of December. The book value/share (70c) makes the share price look cheap, but not so much when you look at NTA/share which is negative $1.27.

  5. #3725
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...-restructuring


    hmm very interesting. Two execs gone and one having only been there 12 months.

    disagreements with management? Or cost cutting?

  6. #3726
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    Not often you get the CFO and COO resigning at the same time, especially when one has only been there for just over a year.
    My money would be on a conflict with the CFO's leadership style. Some people are no good in a crisis.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #3727
    percy
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    I would think nearly every CFO,COO,CEO and directors of listed companies, would find the current crisis, and ongoing issues of right sizing their business,with the right amount of capital, would be causing them a great deal of worry and stress,particularly when they do not really know what the right size will be for their business..Putting off staff is extremely difficult.
    Serious issues with most businesses are going to be ongoing, for the next two or three years.Next winter is going to be very cold and long.Just too many people currently losing their jobs.
    Last edited by percy; 17-06-2020 at 05:43 PM.

  8. #3728
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    Making a few million profit in second half pretty good effort by Thl

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355247
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  9. #3729
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Making a few million profit in second half pretty good effort by Thl

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355247
    So the half year was $13.1m and the full-year underlying estimate is $17.5m to $19m. There will be some write-off's but even so - well done.
    The half year had $5.7m of cash and interest bearing borrowing of $186.7m. The net debt estimate is $140-$145m so they repaid circa $40m over the last 6 months.
    These are pretty good stats given the circumstances.
    And probably most important "Given these funding arrangements and the current outlook for the business, thl has determined that it does not require additional equity."

    While the announcement of no final dividend could be viewed negatively, who really thought there would be a final dividend given what's happened in the last four months?

  10. #3730
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    So the half year was $13.1m and the full-year underlying estimate is $17.5m to $19m. There will be some write-off's but even so - well done.
    The half year had $5.7m of cash and interest bearing borrowing of $186.7m. The net debt estimate is $140-$145m so they repaid circa $40m over the last 6 months.
    These are pretty good stats given the circumstances.
    And probably most important "Given these funding arrangements and the current outlook for the business, thl has determined that it does not require additional equity."

    While the announcement of no final dividend could be viewed negatively, who really thought there would be a final dividend given what's happened in the last four months?
    Definitely, we should not write THL off. It's a great company!

  11. #3731
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    Really, I mean really selling it......

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/trave...nt-badly-wrong

  12. #3732
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Really, I mean really selling it......

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/trave...nt-badly-wrong
    That Journalist gets the “Kenny Award”
    He made a very basic mistake.Should have booked in at the golf clubs !
    https://newzealandgolfdigest.co.nz/g...and-golf-trip/
    Last edited by kiora; 17-07-2020 at 06:25 AM.

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  14. #3734
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  15. #3735
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Looks pretty positive
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  16. #3736
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    need to reduce debt to near zero , its about survival
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  17. #3737
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    They seem to be well focused on doing all the right things but clearly need to reduce debt much further. It will be interesting to watch how they go in the next 12-18 months.

  18. #3738
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
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    thl’s current operating assumption is for vehicle sales volumes in FY21 that are at least similar to normal pre-COVID levels.

    In the absence of a major deterioration in operating conditions, we expect to remain cash flow positive throughout FY21, mainly underpinned by vehicle sales
    Pretty "Brave" assumption that the latter cash flow positivity is predicated upon. One wonders how deeply they have thought about the validity of this assumption ? Post Covid 19 lockdown splurge by some consumers but will it last as the economic conditions seriously wane over the year ahead ? (Note the clearly articulated caveat in the second statement). Got their excuse sorted out already ? You be the judge but I see a LOT of risk.
    Last edited by Beagle; 31-07-2020 at 10:28 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  19. #3739
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Pretty "Brave" assumption that the latter cash flow positivity is predicated upon. One wonders how deeply they have thought about the validity of this assumption ? Post Covid 19 lockdown splurge by some consumers but will it last as the economic conditions seriously wane over the year ahead ? (Note the clearly articulated caveat in the second statement). Got their excuse sorted out already ? You be the judge but I see a LOT of risk.
    Clearly some heroic assumptions there Beagle but good to see them tackling the situation fairly decisively. Totally agree and there is far too much risk and uncertainty to do anything other than watch this one from well back on the sidelines for a long time yet.

  20. #3740
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    Great company, the 2020 annual result really surprised me.

    Full Year Underlying Profit $18.25m (average of $17.5m-$19m from their announcement) + Government $5.1m Tourism subsidy (maybe not in 2020) + Landlord Relief (unknown amount) + Exit from Togo Group ($9m NZD @0.67) + $0.6m dividend (maybe start from 2021 financial year) - $3.1m Tourism.

    I guess that the EPS is around 0.18-0.20 per share, if I do not miss something.

    The company publishes market update monthly, avoid to surprise shareholders. They clearly know what they should do and correct strategy has been determined ( sale of non-commercial vehicles to reduce inventory and improve its cash flow). To contain its debt level, build up commercial relationship with government agency, and reserving new capital raising right for future expansion.

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