THL - Tourism Holdings

[Brain]

what’s the reasonable P/E for thl?

All depends on how fast you expect THL to grow. We need to look into the future which is a bit tricky.

[Justin]

Not really ...just that Mr Market gets over excited at times and then reality hits home


thl was never worth $6.80 odd and now is just falling back to a more reasonable level. (Just like ATM was never worth $14.62 or TRA worth $3.80 or HBL worth $2.15 ... spot the pattern)


Here's how I see it on a PE basis anyway


Desperately need that acquisition to be announced to get the merry go round going again ...ie get some excitment going

Hi Winner69 ，Why you think the new acquisition will get the merry go round going again? If it dose, Is that the good time to top up before AGM? Thanks

[Lewylewylewy]

Thl have grown lots but are always on a low pe for a growth company. I feel like the nature of the business is cyclic and people are forever waiting for it to suddenly turn the other way; hence the low pe.

Perhaps a good way to buy these is to buy a little every year so it doesn't matter if they drop back... averaging up, but always below the current SP. Of course it takes an investor mindset to not worry about drops in the value of your holdings.

Im still in two minds about whether such acceptance is a good thing or not.

[winner69]

Net migration is falling and the government want it to fall faster.

This is an interesting insight from my mate Rodney -

“It probably isn't a coincidence that net tourism and net migration have started to fall at roughly the same time much as occurred after the previous booms in the first half of the 2000s. It seems that around the same time the permanent net flow of people turns up or down the temporary flow driven mainly by tourists does the same. As covered in our housing and building reports there are good reasons for expecting further sizeable downside in net migration. By implication that implies that net tourism will probably fall further ......”

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/TourismThreatOct17.pdf

[winner69]

Thl have grown lots but are always on a low pe for a growth company. I feel like the nature of the business is cyclic and people are forever waiting for it to suddenly turn the other way; hence the low pe.

Over the last few years thl’s pe has been around 20 and in line with eps growth so I wouldn’t say it’s been on a low pe

Drifting down to a more reasonable level for a cash hungry company which doesn’t make much in the way of excessive returns on capital employed.

Desperately need to announce that acquisition and make up another big target for 2021 to get the merry go round going round again.


If one reckons that might be forthcoming at the AGM then buying early next week could be worth a punt.

[Valuegrowth]

I don’t see both Australia and New Zealand as top visiting countries in the Asia pacific region being some of the cleanest countries in the world. It looks like they are visiting countries for different reasons. Countries like China, Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Japan attract over 24 million visitors annually. According to NZ Stats a record 3.82 million visitors stepped onto New Zealand shores in the March 2018 year. Could New Zealand and Australia also target over 20 million visitors annually in the long run?

https://www.ranker.com/list/world_s-...-warrior-chick

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325655

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
thl Announces Possible Sale of Some Tourism Businesses
thl has cause to believe that confidentiality may not have been maintained whilst in discussions with third parties on the possible sale of some of the tourism businesses within thl’s portfolio.
thl is in discussions regarding the Kiwi Experience business and some of the Discover Waitomo businesses, including Black Water Rafting, Ruakuri and the Waitomo Homestead.
The Waitomo Glow Worm Caves business is not included as an asset for sale.
The discussions are incomplete and, if they progress to a definitive transaction, we expect to be able to provide more information during November or December.
END

[Leftfield]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325655

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
thl Announces Possible Sale of Some Tourism Businesses
thl has cause to believe that confidentiality may not have been maintained whilst in discussions with third parties on the possible sale of some of the tourism businesses within thl’s portfolio.
thl is in discussions regarding the Kiwi Experience business and some of the Discover Waitomo businesses, including Black Water Rafting, Ruakuri and the Waitomo Homestead.
The Waitomo Glow Worm Caves business is not included as an asset for sale.
The discussions are incomplete and, if they progress to a definitive transaction, we expect to be able to provide more information during November or December.
END

Desperately need that acquisition to be announced to get the merry go round going again ...ie get some excitment going

Hey Winner is today's announcement exciting enough for you!?
We could assume THL is cashing up either to a.) make an acquisition, or b.) compensate for underperformance, or c.) ploughing more money into their digital initiatives.)

[winner69]

Hey Winner is today's announcement exciting enough for you!?
We could assume THL is cashing up either to a.) make an acquisition, or b.) compensate for underperformance, or c.) ploughing more money into their digital initiatives.)

No not exciting .....just fine tuning the ‘portfolio’ I think

Hope it’s not your b) ...that would send share price down big time (though would not be entirely surprised)

[Pricey]

Seems like a sensible divestment to concentrate on their core RV business.