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  1. #3571
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    All going well - half year out
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...130/317771.pdf

    A cynic would read the Financing Cash Flows bit as ‘we seduced shareholders to give us another $50m from which we gave the Bank $33m and gave $17m back to shareholders’

    And by the Way Free Cash Flow was about negative $10m
    Good they gave us some nice images of Southern lakes ands mountains from campervans as I doubt many will be bothering to rent a camper and take in those views for themselves in the near future. A lot of people are going to stop flying long haul and renting campervans, surely this is perfectly clear.
    "thl is reviewing the nature of its future investment into Togo Group". More than $7 million loss from this in the current half, up more than 30% on pcp. Rob Campbell needs to bite the bullet and cauterize this wound immediately, before it gets even worse.

    I am a cynic, the dividends are an illusion and have been for years. They give partially imputed dividends with one hand, and then the Govt takes a slice and then take with capital raise with the other. Only winner is the Govt. Time for Rob to retire...all his companies struggling, THL, SUM and SKC. Too much for a portly old man to cope with.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-02-2020 at 08:24 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #3572
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    Maybe its time to stay home and see our own country. Rent a campervan. Just hope aus, nz, and us are thinking that the best holiday is an adventure at home.
    Last edited by bottomfeeder; 28-02-2020 at 09:13 AM.

  3. #3573
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I assess thl return on invested capital to be about 7% — which is about its weighted cost of capital (PWC)

    Accordingly not adding any economic profit, ie not anything over its cost of capital.

    Book value is $2.13 ...that’s what many finance guys would say thl should be valued at.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #3574
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    Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.

  5. #3575
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    Quote Originally Posted by bottomfeeder View Post
    Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.
    Add this question to your list. Even if they still want to travel and have the means to do so will anyone want to rent a campervan when they're not sure if the last users had the virus and not sure how well its been cleaned ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #3576
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mogul View Post
    Good analysis, but no way I would pay that much in the current environment. Still have $181 m of net debt. Their latest presentation says this level of net debt gives them headroom for acquisitions and growth initiatives! Go figure! Nothing like sticking to your knitting and battening down the hatches at a time when your industry has a massive demand drop. Question managements grip on reality at this point.
    Rob Campbell has really stuck the jackpot. THL and SKC will both be coming under real pressure and even SUM has stopped growing. I wouldn't want his workload at the best of times but especially not now. Can't help wondering how clearly he is thinking or how deep his perceptiveness is in all his directors roles at present or even how well he is really coping with that statement you referenced.
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-03-2020 at 05:24 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #3577
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Rob talks about vitality a lot ....so no worries with thl
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #3578
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Add this question to your list. Even if they still want to travel and have the means to do so will anyone want to rent a campervan when they're not sure if the last users had the virus and not sure how well its been cleaned ?
    True, but admittedly - if I think how our NZ medical system tends to clean the rooms, then maybe a camper van might be the better option. I remember a time when my wife had an infection during chemotherapy (which is life threatening due to an reduced immune system during this time) and they put us to wait into a room which was clearly neither tidied up nor cleaned after the last patient. Even his (or her) supper was still spread across the room.

    Even if THL does absolutely nothing to their returned camper vans they still could claim that they are cleaner than some New Zealand hospitals ...

    If you are really sick - better pick up a camper van and isolate yourself from the rest of the world!
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #3579
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    Quote Originally Posted by bottomfeeder View Post
    Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.
    FWIW I sold mine in Oct 2018 in the mid $5.00's for much the same reasons. In addition, earlier that year I 'sampled' their USA hire vehicles and their digital offerings while on an extended holiday. Neither impressed me, and then after I returned to NZ, from a TA perspective the SP entered 'death cross' territory. Hence my selling.

    Nothing has happened since then to change my view of THL, and I am glad I'm out.

    I'm sure you are better out given the current Coronavirus scenario's which will place additional financial woes on the company.

  10. #3580
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    thl to do some number guessing tomorrow

    When punters have gone home for the weekend they’ll do the late Friday and hope nobody notices trick about how disasterous the US is going to be for them
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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