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  1. #3251
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    profit down grade from atl apollo in aus

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201905...bm2nhvtdrd.pdf
    Caveat, I don't know the company at all BUT it occurs to me that mid point of guidance at $18.5m is not to bad and not materially different to FY18 at $19.2m.
    The drop today to 65 cents per share puts them on a FY19 PE of just 6.5. This should give THL shareholders cause for very deep thought because at the lower end of guidance THL is forecast to earn just 20 cps so if they were on the same multiple as Apollo (ATL) fair value for THL would be just $1.30 !
    I'd be schooling up on ATL if I were interested in this sector. TA looks shocking for ATL so I'd be looking for a confirmed bottom (as I would be with TA for THL) if I was going fishing in this sector.
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-05-2019 at 12:26 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #3252
    Banned
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    May 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Caveat, I don't know the company at all BUT it occurs to me that mid point of guidance at $18.5m is not to bad and not materially different to FY18 at $19.2m.
    The drop today to 65 cents per share puts them on a FY19 PE of just 6.5. This should give THL shareholders cause for very deep thought because at the lower end of guidance THL is forecast to earn just 20 cps so if they were on the same multiple as Apollo (ATL) fair value for THL would be just $1.30 !
    I'd be schooling up on ATL if I were interested in this sector. TA looks shocking for ATL so I'd be looking for a confirmed bottom (as I would be with TA for THL) if I was going fishing in this sector.
    Beagle,

    Apollo is much more highly geared therefore more risky (Debt/ebitda at FY18 THL 2.0x v Apollo at 3.8x). Also THL has other more stable cash generating tourism businesses to support its RV businesses. Not saying THL is value here at all but its not a good comparison to Apollo which has expanded more aggressively than THL. Maybe THL heads towards $3.00 or so until/unless they can stem the US bleeding....but Apollo if things get worse could go bankrupt imho.
    Last edited by Arbroath; 02-05-2019 at 01:34 PM.

  3. #3253
    The Kid
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    Tourism Holdings now at $4.28 recovering somewhat from the low of $3.85 in early May. Someone is still keen on them.

  4. #3254
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    Nov 2016
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    I have lost the link to the article but during my browsing with a US based site, I picked up that the RV market generally in the US has been having a bad time and so it is not just THL (may have been Bloomberg). Whether they want to continue in that space is still a decision that they need to make of course.

  5. #3255
    Member
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    Winnebago had a poor sales year (sell RVs, not rental) & all major US car companies reporting prolonged downturn in vehicle sales.

  6. #3256
    Outside thinking.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nizzy View Post
    Winnebago had a poor sales year (sell RVs, not rental) & all major US car companies reporting prolonged downturn in vehicle sales.
    Crikey! Careful. Don't say that over on the TNR thread!

  7. #3257
    Member glennj's Avatar
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    I sold half my THL holdings in the low $4's to lock in profits and make the remainder of the useful sized holding an almost "free hold". Sure enough after selling a minor recovery has taken place but you can't dwell on such things. The Roadtrippers joint ventures in Aus and USA made me a little uneasy as did a number of other things. I'll hold my remaining shares for the moment and watch with interest how this aspect of the business and some other things that are not so rosy e.g. resales pan out!

  8. #3258
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    Quote Originally Posted by nizzy View Post
    Winnebago had a poor sales year (sell RVs, not rental) & all major US car companies reporting prolonged downturn in vehicle sales.
    If you buy into the LYFT / UBER spin the world is on the verge of transition from car owning to car sharing. Autonomous cars.....5 years away ? …..will accelerate that trend. Personally I see major societal ramifications of such a move. And in general I don't like them. Time will tell I guess.

  9. #3259
    Outside thinking.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    If you buy into the LYFT / UBER spin the world is on the verge of transition from car owning to car sharing. Autonomous cars.....5 years away ? …..will accelerate that trend. Personally I see major societal ramifications of such a move. And in general I don't like them. Time will tell I guess.
    Good post.......and don't forget ebikes and scooters......all with implications for companies like TNR and THL etc.

  10. #3260
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    International traffic at Auckland Airport grew at 1.1% in the quarter ending 31 March, a sharp drop from 3.5% in the first half, while Sydney Airport saw similar weakness in its traffic movements with international passenger traffic up just 0.7% in the March quarter, well below the 2019 forecast for 3.6%. The slowdown has obvious implications for THL.

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