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  1. #3191
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Jeez - on the buyers side only one bid: 25k @ $3.85. Wondering whether it will be filled?

    Anyway - commiserations to holders, but it always was a cyclical business. Interesting to watch the downturn from the sidelines.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #3192
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    what happens when you invest in a cyclical business , bit like air
    Cyclical but also very capital intensive
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3193
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Cyclical but also very capital intensive
    yup the manufacturing segment was always the big problem in nz for yrs
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #3194
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IAK View Post
    Man, it's hard to get out when everyone is heading for the exit at the same time. Oh well, glad I took the divi and not the DRP.
    And to add salt to my wounds I get my statement today showing increase in holding due to DRP. Bugger!

  5. #3195
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    What's all the fuss about. Look on the bright side. SP already up 26c from 3.85 low. Who was lucky enough to get in at 3.85?. I see an uptrend forming in the last 25 minutes.

  6. #3196
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    Nice bounce if anyone caught it...

  7. #3197
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    What's all the fuss about. Look on the bright side. SP already up 26c from 3.85 low. Who was lucky enough to get in at 3.85?. I see an uptrend forming in the last 25 minutes.
    I like your optimism!

  8. #3198
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURI...92/financials/
    Based on $33m forecast = eps = 25.1 cps so $32m the new forecast = 24.3 cps. I really struggle to see the growth in eps that the average analyst is forecasting here and I expect downgrades to come through as growth has well and truly come off the boil. At $4.39 they are on a forward PE of 18.1. I do not think that's cheap by any means in the circumstances.
    The chart says there's a VERY clear downtrend and the fundamental's do not look compelling at all for a tourism company. PE of 18 is about as high as this company has ever traded when growth was on track.

    I expect the strong correction to continue for quite some time. This looks like a good stock to avoid for a while until a new uptrend commences and that might be quite some time in the future.
    Somewhere in the low $3 range provided they can show some traction with the millions they're investing in TH2, it could be worth another look.
    Posted 26 February 2019. Some people saw this coming. As to what I think after this announcement...well $25 million gives just 20 cps.
    At $4.00 that's a forward PE of 20 which is much too optimistic. $3.00 gives a forward PE of 15.
    As Winner has quite rightly observed on many occasions this company has been borrowing more and more money to pay its over inflated dividends.
    Now we see the net result of that and some softening demand. The Emperor does have some clothes but they are increasingly looking tarnished and tatty.

    Are we about to see the dream end and this return to a cyclical tourism company and trade on multiples like AIR at about 10 ?. Surely not. My goodness, if the dream is over that would see it decline to just 10 times 20 cents = $2 ! Very tough day for shareholders so I will be a little kind and offer up some music to suggest the dream may not be over
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjBwAYIxUso
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-04-2019 at 09:49 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #3199
    The Kid
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    WTH Crowded House! Now that just adds more salt to the wounds. Not helpful lol.

  10. #3200
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    pretty sure THL was one of Craigs recommendations a few quarters ago.....

    (edit) yup I've just checked the April 2018 quarterly and they had it as an overweight buy as a supplementary stock
    Last edited by peat; 18-04-2019 at 10:55 AM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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