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  1. #3271
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Maybe their business model is more "broken" than just "dented".?
    Used to be very good mates with the accountant for Henderson Rental cars and what he kept telling me is that rental car firms must buy well, rent well, maintain well and re-sell well.
    If any one part of the 4 main legs of that models fails the business becomes like a 3 legged chair...very unstable.

    We're discussed the economics of ownership before and unless one is intending to get a really substantial amount of use from their camper its better to rent.

    CEO of Riviera N.Z. told me that since the GFC people are far more careful with their money now in terms of where they tie up their capital. The typical camper buyer is probably a baby boomer who is concerned whether they have enough to retire on and putting ~ $100K into a good used camper isn't an especially good idea for most.

    I think the used campervan problem will persist for the foreseeable future. THL's implied claim this problem is fixable in the near term lacks credibility in my opinion.
    More likely they will have to substantially alter their business model and keep campervans in work much longer. Hope they have lots of good mechanics.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-05-2019 at 11:18 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #3272
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew95 View Post
    Just a bit of anecdotal evidence. I just bought a campervan, and there were hundreds to choose from. I ended up buying a (non-ex-rental) with 40,000km on the dial for $76,000. The new equivalent is $155,000. I went to one rental company, who were trying to sell off very similar, but much lower spec'd vans, with 200,000km on the dial for $90,000. And they had 60 to choose from. That was one rental co. And down the road were several more. My impression after doing about a year of research was that the market was flooded, and prices would need to come down simply because of supply and demand.
    Welcome to the forum and thank you for sharing your experience.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #3273
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Used to be very good mates with the accountant for Henderson Rental cars and what he kept telling me is that rental car firms must buy well, rent well, maintain well and re-sell well.
    If any one part of the 4 main legs of that models fails the business becomes like a 3 legged chair...very unstable.

    We're discussed the economics of ownership before and unless one is intending to get a really substantial amount of use from their camper its better to rent.

    CEO of Riviera N.Z. told me that since the GFC people are far more careful with their money now in terms of where they tie up their capital. The typical camper buyer is probably a baby boomer who is concerned whether they have enough to retire on and putting ~ $100K into a good used camper isn't an especially good idea for most.

    I think the used campervan problem will persist for the foreseeable future. THL's implied claim this problem is fixable in the near term lacks credibility in my opinion.
    More likely they will have to substantially alter their business model and keep campervans in work much longer. Hope they have lots of good mechanics.
    My brother in law who is retired just sold a Taupo property and to our surprised has ploughed some of the money into a new campervan. I think a percentage of retirees who sell their high valued Auckland properties will do this so they can enjoy the freedom of visiting places within NZ whenever they want. And so the industry will benefit long term from the tsunami of retirees coming, in the same way as SUM other companies. May be some light at the end of the tunnel.

    I do agree that this won't be a quick fix.

  4. #3274
    Member Drew95's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Welcome to the forum and thank you for sharing your experience.
    Thanks Beagle. Been a long term watcher on and off over the years - thought I should start contributing what little knowledge I have.

    And BTW, I came very close to buying into EVO, but after reading the entire ST thread from day one, and reading their Annual reports, and especially taking into account your wisdom, I decided it was not a good idea. So thanks.

  5. #3275
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew95 View Post
    Thanks Beagle. Been a long term watcher on and off over the years - thought I should start contributing what little knowledge I have.

    And BTW, I came very close to buying into EVO, but after reading the entire ST thread from day one, and reading their Annual reports, and especially taking into account your wisdom, I decided it was not a good idea. So thanks.
    You're welcome and I am pleased to have helped Hope you enjoy your campervan, sounds like the ex rentals are way too overpriced and very high mileage !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #3276
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    Another downgrade for apollo Thl might be able to buy Apollo cheap for a merger maybe

  7. #3277
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden city View Post
    Another downgrade for apollo Thl might be able to buy Apollo cheap for a merger maybe
    apollo getting smashed , be waiting for the next thl downgrade
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #3278
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden city View Post
    Another downgrade for apollo Thl might be able to buy Apollo cheap for a merger maybe
    Could will do ..if shareholders fronted up with more cash

    Apollo have many of the same problems as thl ...wonder if thl will come out with a downgrade in due course as well.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #3279
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    Hard to say because the whole rv market looks sudden turn from the trump China war that kills business confidence and world growth that people delay spending

  10. #3280
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201905...f15mqljrmj.pdf

    WOW this makes SOMBRE reading for this sector. I was a bit tempted to have a little dabble in Apollo after the recent downgrade at about 65 cents, just 20 thousand or so as a cheap punt but thankfully an old dog can learn new tricks and I brought up the chart and it put me off. Free warning for THL: shareholders, this sector is tough Apollo chart.jpg
    You'd have to be a "braver" dog than I to buy on a downtrend like that !
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-05-2019 at 04:40 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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