THL - Tourism Holdings

[Simsee]

I think the vans are free of charge until, presumably used. Thought that’s what I heard on the news

[Beagle]

Hope the Govt are paying for deep cleaning afterwards. I am sorry but I think its going to be a very long time until international travel and tourism gets back to anything like it was.
Maybe by 2022 they are doing 60-75% of the business they were doing ? I predict a real L shaped recovery with full recovery taking even longer.
Whether they can survive this is very much an open question in my mind.

[Snoopy]

Hope the Govt are paying for deep cleaning afterwards.

No need for cleaning. It will be years before any tourists use those vans again. Not even a COVID-19 virus can survive that long!

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

No need for cleaning. It will be years before any tourists use those vans again. Not even a COVID-19 virus can survive that long!

SNOOPY

Good point Snoopy. Are you interested in speculating on this one mate ?

[Snoopy]

Good point Snoopy. Are you interested in speculating on this one mate ?

No! I got caught in the last bailout of Air NZ by Clark/Cullen and got burnt. I resolved never to invest in tourism shares after that. Low margin, fickle, and easy for a competitor to undermine your apparent competitive advantage.

I remember the somewhat humerous quip by Warren Buffett on the subject of airlines

Each time he thought that he had found an airline company that would be able to in some way differentiate itself it wouldn't work out. Buffett made it folksy and humorous by saying that he now calls a 1-800 number and says, "Hello my name is Warren and I'm an airoholic" and that they help to talk him out of investing.

Well, I have a 'touriholic hotline' that I call when I think about investing in the tourism industry!

SNOOPY

[Balance]

No! I got caught in the last bailout of Air NZ by Clark/Cullen and got burnt. I resolved never to invest in tourism shares after that. Low margin, fickle, and easy for a competitor to undermine your apparent competitive advantage.

I remember the somewhat humerous quip by Warren Buffett on the subject of airlines

Each time he thought that he had found an airline company that would be able to in some way differentiate itself it wouldn't work out. Buffett made it folksy and humorous by saying that he now calls a 1-800 number and says, "Hello my name is Warren and I'm an airoholic" and that they help to talk him out of investing.

Well, I have a 'touriholic hotline' that I call when I think about investing in the tourism industry!

SNOOPY

Don't speak too soon!

"Berkshire holds significant stakes in four major carriers – American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) and United. In percentage terms, Berkshire owns between 8.8% and 11.2% in the four carriers. At American, Southwest and United, Berkshire is the second-largest shareholder. Mar 17, 2020"

[BlackPeter]

Don't speak too soon!

"Berkshire holds significant stakes in four major carriers – American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) and United. In percentage terms, Berkshire owns between 8.8% and 11.2% in the four carriers. At American, Southwest and United, Berkshire is the second-largest shareholder. Mar 17, 2020"

Warrens helpline was probably underfunded and understaffed ;

[Snoopy]

Don't speak too soon!

"Berkshire holds significant stakes in four major carriers – American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) and United. In percentage terms, Berkshire owns between 8.8% and 11.2% in the four carriers. At American, Southwest and United, Berkshire is the second-largest shareholder. Mar 17, 2020"

Yes I read recently about Warren's change of heart on Airlines. However, I saw an article that said on 5th March 2020 Warren had lost $3b on his EOCY2019 position. That was with his stakes in the airlines down about 14%. The market decline in airline shares has subsequently extended to be three times that amount. So Warren must have lost about $9b by now. That is a big price to pay for not getting through to the airoholic hotline!

SNOOPY

[Arthur]

Bailouts coming to the US airlines that squandered so much on dividends and buybacks. Trump is trying a workaround on bailing out the tax and regulation dodging cruise industry. In my opinion Air NZ got it without lube with the loan terms, they may have agreed, but it was under duress, try that for defense in a "metoo" case. The Government borrows at near zero and is lending to them at usury rates in the current environment. Hopefully they are paying enough for the THL campers to keep it alive. None of the tourism sector chose this.

[macduffy]

THL CEO featured in an interesting interview with Jack Tame in the last segment of today's Q and A programme on TV1.