They seem to be well focused on doing all the right things but clearly need to reduce debt much further. It will be interesting to watch how they go in the next 12-18 months.
thl’s current operating assumption is for vehicle sales volumes in FY21 that are at least similar to normal pre-COVID levels.
In the absence of a major deterioration in operating conditions, we expect to remain cash flow positive throughout FY21, mainly underpinned by vehicle sales
Pretty "Brave" assumption that the latter cash flow positivity is predicated upon. One wonders how deeply they have thought about the validity of this assumption ? Post Covid 19 lockdown splurge by some consumers but will it last as the economic conditions seriously wane over the year ahead ? (Note the clearly articulated caveat in the second statement). Got their excuse sorted out already ? You be the judge but I see a LOT of risk.
Last edited by Beagle; 31-07-2020 at 10:28 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Pretty "Brave" assumption that the latter cash flow positivity is predicated upon. One wonders how deeply they have thought about the validity of this assumption ? Post Covid 19 lockdown splurge by some consumers but will it last as the economic conditions seriously wane over the year ahead ? (Note the clearly articulated caveat in the second statement). Got their excuse sorted out already ? You be the judge but I see a LOT of risk.
Clearly some heroic assumptions there Beagle but good to see them tackling the situation fairly decisively. Totally agree and there is far too much risk and uncertainty to do anything other than watch this one from well back on the sidelines for a long time yet.
Great company, the 2020 annual result really surprised me.
Full Year Underlying Profit $18.25m (average of $17.5m-$19m from their announcement) + Government $5.1m Tourism subsidy (maybe not in 2020) + Landlord Relief (unknown amount) + Exit from Togo Group ($9m NZD @0.67) + $0.6m dividend (maybe start from 2021 financial year) - $3.1m Tourism.
I guess that the EPS is around 0.18-0.20 per share, if I do not miss something.
The company publishes market update monthly, avoid to surprise shareholders. They clearly know what they should do and correct strategy has been determined ( sale of non-commercial vehicles to reduce inventory and improve its cash flow). To contain its debt level, build up commercial relationship with government agency, and reserving new capital raising right for future expansion.
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Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
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