Originally Posted by
Balance
Sp has fallen a long way from the high of $6.85 reached in June this year so it is tempting to think that the worse is over.
A few observations:
1. The sp has been falling in advance of
i) news of negotiations to sell tourism assets &
ii) effectively a profit downgrade announced at the AGM - means there's insider information leaking out imo,
Playing field is not level.
2. First downgrade is never the last - they do come in threes,
3. This is the longest stretch (6 years) I have know THL to perform well and consistently since its days as The Helicopter Line way back in the 1990s - could 1 and 2 above signal that the at phase is over for this run?
4. Current sp is exactly where it was a year ago - so not as bad as it looks which means worse could be in the offing?
5. There were expectations of potential corporate activity after Citi took a stake. That looks unlikely now with the downturn in China equities and economy.
Prefer to be on the side lines at present - downgrades are not a risk I like to chance! Z Energy is a good example in recent times of how one downgrade begets another!
Happy to wait for review and goal reset before re-evaluating.
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