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  1. #1
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Default THL - Tourism Holdings

    Old thread not come over?

    At a current price of $2.25 the rejected offer made at $2.80 or whatever a few months ago was, in hindsight, something that should not have been rejected.

    Do all those who think that $2.80 was not fair value, based a lot on the half year report and guidance given in it, still believe that to be the case?

    If sp great buying at the moment then

    However THL seem to have gone back to their old ways and not really giving the market any great confidence in their ability to really deliver.

  2. #2
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    i suspect it was pretty good value, and i would have sold had i been in nz.
    sadly i was off gallivanting for three months, and could neither remember the size of my holding or the details of selling online.
    it could be 12-15 months before we see 280 again.
    i'm rather cross with myself. woe!
    scamper

  3. #3
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    SP may stay down for quite some time.

    THL
    24/09/2007
    HALTRECQ

    REL: 1042 HRS Tourism Holdings Limited

    HALTRECQ: THL: THL Halt of Securities

    NZX Regulation Announcement
    Tourism Holdings Limited (THL)
    Halt of Securities

    NZX Regulation advises that Tourism Holdings Limited (THL) has applied for,
    and NZX Regulation ("NZXR") has granted, a trading halt in THL securities.
    The trading halt is to enable MFS Living and Leisure to conduct a book build
    on the sale of its existing stake in THL. NZXR anticipates that THL will be
    in halt for the remainder of today, 24 September 2007.
    Toddy

  4. #4
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    it's so long since i had to take notice of this sort of trading halt that i cant remember the implications! i presume that a trading halt and then the behind-the-scenes bargaining has fewer negative effects on the sp than mfs dumping the lot on the open market.

    is there a rule that governs whether a trading halt is necessary?

    just remembered -- i was offered a bucket full of npx years ago when there was a 'distressed seller'. the market price dropped to around the behind-the-scenes price, maybe 172c, and then pulled away merrily for years.

    it would be wishful thinking to imagine thl 'pulling away merrily for years'. cheers.

  5. #5
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Hardly inspiring stuff from the head honcho

    " Profits could always be better. It's been an okay year."

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10484834


    Shouldn't overlook the fact that THL outperformed the NZX (and even NZO) this year ..... up nearly 20% ....... one of the standouts for the year ...... but are many regretting not taking the $2.80 or whatever it was

  6. #6
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    With a current price of 191 that 280 that MFS offered seems a long way off

    MFS accused of 'over paying' for a lot of the succesful acquisitions made so on reflection the 280 offered for THL was on the high side as well

    Oh well -- some held out and all have suffered since ..... but it would be an interesting life for THL under MFS control at the moment eh

  7. #7
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    THL back to it's old habits in disappointing punters

    Nearly 50% down from the offer last year .... and the way MFS or whatever it is called now has gone it might have been on the block again .... at bargain basement prices.

    Most likely many saying that that 280 solds good now


    THL back on the watchlist again .... might be another ride from sub $1 to $3 sometime

  8. #8
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    They had to get rid of the coach lines as the tour market is drying up,
    fuel up, costs in general up, and no quality driver/courier's comming on.
    The capitial outlay too profits just was'nt there for them in that bizz.
    They may get out of rest of the coaching endevours as, again, Costs
    /profits may not stack up.

    I am supprised they ditched the Red Boats and their holding in Milford.

    However lets see how they pan out. watchlist stuff me thinks
    BB

  9. #9
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    It seems to me that for whatever reason, the tourism business is hard to make work at public company level. Perhaps it's too capital and labour intensive and the big operators don't have the flexibility to be able to adjust to the rapid cyclical changes.
    Those with long memories will remember Trans Tours of the 60's/70's, a similar company to THL, at least on the transport side in that they operated fleets of buses and campervans. A good performer for quite some time that eventually fell on hard times. NZ listed hotel companies, Rainbows End and the Christchurch gondola company have all found the going difficult. Don't mention Air NZ!
    It's not a sector that I feel comfortable with any more.


  10. #10
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    Definitely a sector that has its ups and downs. However, a sector that I have either had at least one company in my portfolio, or looking at which one to ditch or acquire. Air NZ actually made me a tidy profit several years ago, and could have again a few times, but talk about a rollercoaster. THL has always been of interest, but I've never held. Probably not quite the right time yet, but maybe before too long......

  11. #11
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    Problem is that the campervan hirers are fat yanks , brits or europeans. They been hit by probable recession , poor exchange rates petrol price hikes etc
    Combine this with other companies offering rent a wreck type deals and you end up with half the fleet sitting idle but losing value.

    No doubt they will have a good year when the worlsd cup comes around but that still a long way off

  12. #12
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    Thanks ratkin and patsy ... for reminding me about the yard full of campervans not generating any income, why a high or is it a high dollar seems to stop tourists coming to the country, how high fuel prices stop people flying to this country, how the Olympics always seem to affect THL and and .... and .... and ....


    And thanks for reminding me that their business is capital intensive and it requires high usage rates to make decent money ... and that it is pretty labout intensive and only makes a margin on top of this

    And thanks for reminding me that THL is a perrenial non-performer and invariably disappoints the market and it appears as if nothing has changed

    And thanks for reminding me that it is stupid of me to put THL back on the old watchlist because one day it might come right

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by patsy View Post
    Winner - the usage rate is a concept that THL has never understood and has been one of the reasons for its own demise: contrary to common sense, a high campervan usage rate is less profitable than an optimal (lower) usage rate. A high usage rate means disproportionally higher maintenance costs and more frequent replacement.

    THL has consistently insisted on full utilisation simply because they believe that the market focuses on sales levels, not profit levels. A utilisation rate of around 10% below the usual top summer rate, would act as leverage on bottom line. That is, slightly lower sales would help achieve significant cost reduction thus giving a higher bottom line.

    ... but who can explain this to those who come from NZ Lotteries and believe that this business should be managed the same, as an intangible product one, in which sales and costs follow a perfectly correlated and linear relationship?

    "Come back, Pickup - all is forgiven"
    I think that Patsy is hitting a nail on the head. Industry inexperience obviously counts for little, unless you are lucky enough to be receiving the paycheck...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  14. #14
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    Today, the sp is at 87c.... a level not seen since November 1998. For shareholders, ten years of no capital growth, just some divvies.

    What a shame.
    God - Please give us just one more bubble....

  15. #15
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Biggest disappointment ever this comapny eh Patsy

    I always have a laugh when they say they are 'well positioned' for when things improve ...... things may improve .... but generally not for long suffering THL shareholders

    What price did dhareholders reject last year? Bugger they say now

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