THL - Tourism Holdings

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...-are-cancelled

"England-Hall said areas traditionally popular with Chinese New Year visitors - such as Queenstown, Rotorua and Milford Sound - would be hardest hit by the decision to halt tours.

One New Zealand hotel chain has already lost bookings from about 800 Chinese guests after 20 tour groups cancelled over the weekend.

General manager of the Scenic Hotel Group, Brendan Taylor, said the outbreak of the virus would have a dramatic impact

"The timing of it would not have been worse."

"Being Chinese New Year the impact is pretty large on everybody."

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...-are-cancelled

"England-Hall said areas traditionally popular with Chinese New Year visitors - such as Queenstown, Rotorua and Milford Sound - would be hardest hit by the decision to halt tours.

One New Zealand hotel chain has already lost bookings from about 800 Chinese guests after 20 tour groups cancelled over the weekend.

General manager of the Scenic Hotel Group, Brendan Taylor, said the outbreak of the virus would have a dramatic impact

"The timing of it would not have been worse."

"Being Chinese New Year the impact is pretty large on everybody."

There might be an opportunity for normal Kiwis to visit these places now. I avoided places like Queenstown so far like the plague due to the overrun by overseas tourists, and others might have done the same.

And while I am unlikely to rent a camper van (hate these thing as well), there might be some additional business for the local hotels and restaurants ...

[Scrunch]

True the 12 month chart is certainly ugly, one long downtrend, and dipping down even further now as some run for the exit door.... while the Bear is dithering

Dithering as to whether this is a great chance to buy additional shares cheaply or dithering as to whether there's further bad news which would push the share price even lower so it's better to sell Now?

[BlackPeter]

Dithering as to whether this is a great chance to buy additional shares cheaply or dithering as to whether there's further bad news which would push the share price even lower so it's better to sell Now?

Well, assuming people start panicking there might be at some stage a chance to buy some good shares at a discount. So far however I don't see the panic, but if it occurs I would not put THL into this category.

No virus will rid them off their unsold overhang of camper vans and no virus will change their risk related to investing hugely into software without understanding it.

[Beagle]

Well, assuming people start panicking there might be at some stage a chance to buy some good shares at a discount. So far however I don't see the panic, but if it occurs I would not put THL into this category.

No virus will rid them off their unsold overhang of camper vans and no virus will change their risk related to investing hugely into software without understanding it.

Quite right BP. THL have been on a pretty steady decline since winter 2018 when they were ~ $6.80.

[Oliver Mander]

Quite right BP. THL have been on a pretty steady decline since winter 2018 when they were ~ $6.80.

Agree. I sold out a while ago (not at $6.80 unfortunately), and 'guessed' at the time that a decent risk-weighted buy-in price would be around $2.80. Am tempted to run the numbers again to see if that still holds.

[winner69]

Quite right BP. THL have been on a pretty steady decline since winter 2018 when they were ~ $6.80.

I doubt Chairman Rob proud of seeing $400m wiped off thl’s market cap in 18 months

Rob also probably not proud of getting heaps of new capital from HB at $4 odd and seducing other punters to front up with another $50m at $3.40

What a lot of shareholder wealth has been destroyed in that time

[Beagle]

Agree. I sold out a while ago (not at $6.80 unfortunately), and 'guessed' at the time that a decent risk-weighted buy-in price would be around $2.80. Am tempted to run the numbers again to see if that still holds.

Likewise I can't remember when I got out but it was quite a while ago. For what its worth I am not tempted at the current price or anywhere close to this. I'd rather let the trend run its full course and buy back in when it breaks back up through the 100 day MA and thereby de-risk this cyclical stock properly. I think many people got carried away thinking this tourism company was a growth company and not a cyclical one. My sense is the next few months could be very confronting for shareholders as for the first time in more than a decade they might find out what a real tourism slump feels like and it won't just be limited to THL's N.Z. operations and good luck selling expensive, (purely discretionary purchase), second hand campervans in this environment !

I doubt Chairman Rob proud of seeing $400m wiped off thl’s market cap in 18 months

Rob also probably not proud of getting heaps of new capital from HB at $4 odd and seducing other punters to front up with another $50m at $3.40

What a lot of shareholder wealth has been destroyed in that time

He should be very disappointed with himself...got carried away with this tech stuff and its beyond his core competence in my opinion.
I think shareholders have every right to feel very disappointed with this reckless fishing expedition too.

[oldtech]

I got out in February 2019, at a loss unfortunately. Must admit I saw it as a growth company, but in my defence I think from memory that when I bought in (January 2018) the SP had been steadily rising for the previous four years.

[glennj]

THL down to 2.80 today I see. Makes me even happier that I sold the last of my holdings in late May 2019 at a good but smaller profit than the rest sold before that! The money reinvested in MMH is going well!