THL - Tourism Holdings

**iceman** · 16-01-2018, 12:45 PM

I read somewhere some days ago that tourism grew 7% in 2017 worldwide, the fastest pace ever recorded. The NZ Tourism Forum is forecasting visitor numbers to NZ to grow from 3.5 million in 2016 to 4.9 million in 2023. Total tourism spend in NZ forecast to increase from $10 billion to $15.3 billion for the same period. THL is a core part of my portfolio and looking at numbers like this as well as THL's own forecasted numbers, I feel we are well positioned with this company to take advantage of this phenomenal growth in the industry.

**winner69** · 16-01-2018, 01:38 PM

thl shareholder returns over the last 2 years have outperformed PPH returns

One safe as and other risky as

**winner69** · 16-01-2018, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

I'm fully expecting them to hit their $50m target 1 year early in 2019, (which represents EPS of 41.3 cps) so this time next year I would expect them to be trading on a forward PE of about 18 times that. My 1 year price target is thus $7.43. Also can't rule out further bolt on acquisitions or a takeover. I used to be a client of Forsyth Barr, (note the past tense).

So $30m profit in F17 and $40m in F18 and then $50m in F19

Makes perfect sense to me

And Suzanne might need to adjust he F20 to $60m eh

Good eh

**Beagle** · 16-01-2018, 02:35 PM

Yes agree Winner, good solid growth prospects going forward and risk to 2020 forecast is to the upside I would think.
I like how Rob Campbell has really turned this around over the years always looking for optimal fleet efficiencies.

**percy** · 16-01-2018, 02:51 PM

Please no.
There are enough tourist drivers struggling with NZ road conditions.
Put them in a LEFT HAND drive vehicle and there will be madness.

**macduffy** · 16-01-2018, 02:58 PM

I like how Rob Campbell has really turned this around over the years always looking for optimal fleet efficiencies.

A nice job of directing day to day operations on the part of the CEO, too!

**forest** · 16-01-2018, 04:41 PM

Hi Beagle, in the past and likely at present THL would have a new camper van and after one high season ship it from NZ to GB or maybe from GB to NZ, I cant remember. So 2 high seasons following up on each other to utilise their fleet more efficiently. Only with newish vehicles as I recall.